Deepest Christmas snowcover in Winnipeg in 15 years

41 cm of snow over the past week has resulted in the deepest snow cover at Christmas in Winnipeg in 15 years.  As of this morning, the airport was showing a snowdepth of 21 cm, the deepest snowpack at Christmas since a 30 cm reading on Dec 25 2000. At my site in Charleswood, I recorded a snow depth of 30 cm this morning.. the deepest snowdepth on Christmas since Dec 25 2000 (31 cm).        
  
Christmas day snow on ground stats (Winnipeg since 1955)

Least snow on ground....... TR (1997) *
Most snow on ground......... 80 cm (1955)
Average snow on ground.... 16 cm 

* NOTE: Official "snow on ground" readings for Winnipeg airport started in the fall of 1955 and continued until 2002. Thereafter, snow on ground measurements at the airport have been taken by an automated sonic snow sensor at the XWG autostation which uses sound waves to estimate snow depth.  This automated method is not as reliable as human read measurements due to sampling errors caused by drifting, which human based measurements can take into account. Since 2004, manual snow depth readings have been taken at the Charleswood 2 climate site (my backyard) as a secondary source of snow depth measurements in Winnipeg. Note however that snow depth readings at this residential site are generally higher than readings at the airport (by about 30%), owing to the fact that the airport site is more exposed and more prone to blowing, drifting and compacting of the snow pack. 

Prior to 1955, there have been at least 3 Christmases noted with no snow on the ground in Winnipeg: 1939, 1913, and 1877 (based on anecdotal and newspaper reports) Coincidentally, the 4 years with green Christmases in Winnipeg were also the top 4 warmest Decembers on record.

Christmas day snowdepth in Winnipeg since 2000

(Rob's Obs readings)  ........ Airport

2015 ......... 30 cm .............. 21 cm
2014 .........  5 cm   .............   1 cm
2013 ......... 21 cm .............. 10 cm
2012 ......... 24 cm .............. 18 cm
2011 .........   2 cm  ..............  1 cm
2010 ......... 23 cm ................ M
2009 ......... 10 cm ................ 4 cm
2008 ......... 24 cm ............... 14 cm
2007 ......... 28 cm ............... 15 cm
2006 ......... 11 cm ...............  7 cm
2005 ......... 14 cm ................ M
2004 ........... 8 cm ................ 4 cm
2003 ........... 4 cm ................ M
2002 .......... 11 cm ............... 12 cm
2001 .......... 12 cm ............... 12 cm
2000 .......... 31 cm ............... 30 cm

Prior to 1955, there have been 3 Christmases documented in Winnipeg with no snow on the ground, although these are not part of the official climate record. They were 1939, 1913 and 1877. Coincidentally these are There was also reference made that in Dec 1834, the first snow of the season in Winnipeg fell on Dec 28th.. so it's possible that Dec 1834 was also a brown Christmas (but then, we don't know what they considered the first significant snow back in 1834)

Scenes from Christmas Day 1939 in Winnipeg

The following photos are from Christmas Day in 1939 in and around Winnipeg. The photos show Winnipeggers taking advantage of a rare snowfree Christmas day that year with activities like lawn bowling at Assiniboine Bowling Club (bottom left) and golf at the St Charles golf course (bottom right). Dec 1939 was the 3rd mildest December on record in Winnipeg, and included the warmest December temperature ever recorded in the city with a high of 11.7C on Dec 6th.

Winnipeggers pose on a rare snowfree golf course on
Christmas Day 1939 

Lawn Bowling in Winnipeg Christmas Day 1939

Golfing on Christmas Day 1939

Another round of snow moving into southern Manitoba Tuesday afternoon/evening.. 5-15 cm likely

Grey area highlights regions most likely
to see 5-15 cm snow Tuesday aftn/night

After a tame start to winter with little in the way of snow, Mother Nature is making up for it this week as yet another storm system brings another round of snow to southern Manitoba Tuesday. This will be the third significant snowfall of the past week in Winnipeg, after last Wednesday's 20 cm dump and Saturday's 5 cm snowburst. For tomorrow, a storm system pushing in from Washington state will track east into North Dakota, spreading snow along the US border by the lunch hour. As the system tracks east, snow will spread into the Red River valley and southeast Manitoba through the afternoon, reaching Winnipeg by mid to late afternoon just in time for the late afternoon rush hour. Snow will increase in intensity through the evening, with a period of heavy snow possible giving snowfall rates of 2-3 cm/hr at times. This will have serious impacts on the afternoon/evening rush hour if the band of heavy snow moves in by 4 pm. Total snowfall from this system is expected to be in the 7-10 cm range for most of the Red River valley including Winnipeg, but amounts of 10-15 cm are possible where the heavier snow band lingers a bit longer. Snow will taper off overnight Tuesday and should be done by the Wednesday morning commute. Luckily winds will not be that strong with this system and temperatures will be mild around -5C which should help with snow clearing operations Tuesday night.  Even so, expect a slower commute Wednesday morning as the city digs out from yet another snowfall.  

Snowfall warning issued for WInnipeg/RRV.. 10-20 cm of snow possible Wednesday

A snowfall warning has been issued for Winnipeg and the Red River Valley for Wednesday as a storm system from Colorado moves into Minnesota. Snow from this system will spread into southern Manitoba after midnight and become heavier towards morning.  Snow is expected to move into Winnipeg around 3 am overnight, and become heavier by 6 am or so with 2-5 cm of new snow by the morning rush hour.  Plan to allow extra time to get to work or school tomorrow morning as the commute will be slow due to snow covered roads and slippery conditions. A period of moderate to heavy snow is expected through the morning with snowfall rates of 1-2 cm/hr at times giving another 5-10 cm by midday before snow eases off in the afternoon and evening with another 5 cm or so. This will make for a very slow commute for the drive home (unless everyone leaves earlier because of the storm) All in all, 12-20 cm is possible for Winnipeg by Wednesday night. Occasional light snow will continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning with another couple cm possible. Winds will also pick up later Wednesday into Wednesday night so drifting and some blowing snow will become an issue although bulk of snow will be over by then.

Models coming in line that heaviest swath of snow tomorrow will set up somewhere from the Pilot Mound-Altona area north through Winnipeg into southern Lake Winnipeg region. 10-20 cm possible within this swath. 10 cm outside this main area. Dry slot will give lesser amounts to our southeast and has pushed the heavier band further west.. which is why initial forecast of heavier amounts southeast of Winnipeg has changed. That's what the latest guidance is saying.. now let's see how it all pans out. Got my snow ruler ready!

STORM UPDATE

A snowy commute home for Winnipeg drivers as a band of
heavy snow crosses the city in time for "rush" hour
(photo credit: Winnipeg Free Press)

Light snow started up in Winnipeg around 2 am and by 8 am, I measured 2.4 cm at my site in Charleswood. Snow started to pick up in intensity through the morning with another 4 cm by noon. Snow continued steady but fairly light through the afternoon, before a heavier snowband pushed through the city from 3-5 pm dumping 5 cm of snow in 2 hours at my site. I recorded a storm total of 14 cm by 5 pm, and 15.5 cm by 6:30 pm. Winds were generally light through much of the event, although they started to pick up late in the afternoon into the evening out of the northwest causing some blowing and drifting snow. General snowfall amounts of 10-15 cm were common through the Red River valley and SE Manitoba up to the evening. Snow continued Wednesday night with another 5 cm by Thursday morning. Storm total at my site was 20.5 cm.  

Storm system to bring snow to Red River valley and SE Manitoba Wednesday.. colder temperatures to follow

Probability of at least 5 cm of snow
within 24 hrs by Wednesday evening
(WPC graphic)

Mild weather continues over southern Manitoba with extensive cloud, patchy fog and occasional freezing drizzle. This stagnant weather pattern is expected to persist for the next couple of days before a more significant storm tracking through Minnesota Wednesday impacts southern Manitoba with snow and increasing winds. There remains some uncertainty with the track of this storm, which will influence snowfall amounts over southern Manitoba. At this point, models are indicating the heaviest snow with this system will fall mainly in eastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota, with lesser amounts over southern Manitoba. Even so, southeast Manitoba and the Red River valley should see some snow with this system, with 5-10 cm possible for most areas. Should the system track a bit further west, snowfall amounts will likely be higher across southern Manitoba. Note also that the system will be bringing increasing north winds Wednesday, which would lead to blowing and drifting snow issues especially over the Red River valley.  Stay tuned for future updates on this developing system.

Average temperatures in Winnipeg over
past 90 days shows persistent warmth

A change to colder weather will follow in the wake of this system for the end of the week into the weekend, with temperatures falling to more seasonable levels for mid December. Keep in mind, normal highs are now -10C in southern Manitoba with lows of -20C.. temperatures we have yet to see so far this season.  The coldest temperature since Nov 1st in Winnipeg has been only -17.5C on Nov 26th,  and we've only dropped below the -15C mark on only 2 occasions so far this season. Truly remarkable given that normal lows are now -20C. Temperatures have been so consistently above normal over southern Manitoba over the past 2 months that dropping to near normal temperatures would seem like a bitter cold snap. Thanks to the strongest El Nino since 1997, Arctic air intrusions have been blocked from surging southward, allowing a persistent flow of mild Pacific air to prevail over the Prairies and much of north America.  In the past 8 weeks, Winnipeg has seen only 5 days below normal, with none since Nov 27th. So a change to even normal temperatures will seem cold. However, indications are the cold weather will not be that intense or prolonged, with above normal temperatures expected to return by next week. This is consistent with a strong El Nino winter, where cold air intrusions are less frequent and shorter in duration.        

            

December warm spell continues - but trend to colder weather and snow by end of week

It was another balmy day across southern Manitoba Sunday, with temperatures once again well above normal for December.  Snowfree areas and localities in downslope regions were the warmest again as temperatures soared into the double digits yet again, including 11C in Winkler, 10C in Morden and 11C in Wawanesa. In these areas, daytime highs have been above freezing for a full week now, including 2 or 3 days in the double digits.  

Winnipeg didn't fare quite as warm Sunday with southerly winds off a lingering but diminishing snowpack over the northern and eastern Red River valley keeping temperatures in the low single digits (high of +3C) Nonetheless, considering normal highs are now -7C and lows near -18C, few people will complain about temperatures some 10-15C above normal (except cold weather and snow lovers)   But if you're looking forward to colder weather or snow, there's some good news in the forecast. Models are indicating an end to the current December warm spell later this week, with a return to more seasonal temperatures by the weekend. Before that, a weak system tracking across southern MB Tuesday may bring some mixed precipitation (including a threat of freezing rain) Tuesday.  A stronger system will impact southern MB by Thursday with some snow possible which will herald the arrival of colder air later Thursday and Friday into the weekend. There is a possibility of more snow on the weekend, but models are less certain about the timing and amounts.. so that will need to be monitored. In any case, enjoy the balmy weather while you can.. colder weather and snow is on the way for the end of the week.