Freezing rain risk for parts of southern MB tonight..

GEM outlook for midnight tonight.
Red highlights areas of potential
freezing rain

A weather system over southern Saskatchewan will be pushing a warm front across southern Manitoba today into tonight, ushering a milder airmass from the south. Temperatures will be climbing towards the freezing mark overnight, especially closer to the US border. The milder weather however will also bring a threat of freezing rain or ice pellets tonight as the weather system track across southern MB. An area of freezing rain is expected to develop over southeast SK late today, and spread into SW Manitoba this evening.  A freezing rain warning has been issued for these areas. This area of freezing rain may push into Winnipeg and the RRV overnight, however at this point, it appears the greatest risk is over SW Manitoba into parts of the interlake. This system will push east of southern MB Saturday morning, with drier and briefly cooler conditions in its wake.  

UPDATE DEC 1st: TransCanada Highway is closed from Winnipeg to SK border this morning due to severe icing conditions. Travel not advised on many other roads in southern Manitoba, especially north and west of Winnipeg due to ice covered conditions from freezing rain overnight. For latest road and highway conditions, see Manitoba highways website.

Note also that radar images from the Weatheroffice website are now on SNOW rate and will overdo precipitation intensities during rainfall events. Consult Brad's radar viewer from A Weather Moment for radar images showing more accurate RAIN rate intensities during rain or freezing rain events in the winter (select 1.5 km CAPPI for RAIN rate).  

Rob's Obs snowfall statistics to Nov 30th...

Updated 2012-13 snowfall statistics .. (as measured at Rob's Obs)

November 2012 snowfall ............ 39.8 cm
Normal Nov snowfall *................ 21.4 cm
Departure ..................................+18.4 cm  (186%)
Nov 2011 snowfall ...................... 22.0 cm 
  
Seasonal snowfall since Oct 1st ...

2012-13 snowfall to Nov 30 ........ 43.0 cm
Normal snowfall to Nov 30 .......... 26.4 cm
Departure ..................................+16.6 cm  (163%)
Normal winter snowfall *.............. 109.4 cm 
% of normal winter snow to date ...  39%   
Last year to Nov 30 ...................   22.0 cm
% of normal winter snow...............   20%

2012-13 monthly snowfall summary ....

MONTH ................ SNOW ........ NORMAL*

Oct 2012 .................   3.2 cm .........   5.0 cm
Nov 2012 ................  39.8 cm ......... 21.4 cm
Dec 2012 ................  ?????   ......... 19.8 cm
Jan 2013 .................  ?????   .......... 23.1 cm
Feb 2013 ................   ?????   ......... 14.2 cm
Mar 2013 ................   ?????   ......... 15.8 cm
Apr 2013 ................   ?????   ......... 10.1 cm

TOTAL ...................   43.0 cm ...... 109.4 cm   (39%) 

* normal snowfall taken from 1971-2000 averages from Winnipeg airport

Snow spreading into Winnipeg from the west this afternoon.. 2-5 cm possible through this evening.

An area of snow over southern Saskatchewan is spreading into western Manitoba this morning, with visibilities starting to drop in the Dauphin and Brandon regions and towards the SK border.  Snow will continue to spread eastward today reaching Winnipeg by mid to late afternoon, in time for the evening rush hour.  Snow will continue to increase through the evening with about 2-5 cm likely in Winnipeg by midnight, with higher amounts of 5-10 cm possible along the Yellowhead corridor into the Riding Mountains.  Snow will gradually taper off overnight as this system pulls off to the east. Friday will be mainly cloudy but turning milder as southerly winds start drawing up warmer air from the south.  Another weak system will be crossing southern Manitoba Friday night into Saturday with more snow likely through the interlake regions, with mixed precipitation including the risk of freezing rain over Winnipeg and the RRV.  A stronger storm system will likely impact southern Manitoba Sunday night into Monday, with rain or freezing rain over the RRV changing to snow along with strong northwest winds and falling temperatures.

Follow snow on radar. Keep in mind that radar images from the Weatheroffice website are still on RAIN rate and will underplay snow intensities (radar will be changing to SNOW rate on Mon Dec 3rd). Consult Brad's radar viewer from A Weather Moment for radar images showing more accurate SNOW rate intensities.  For latest road and highway conditions, see Manitoba highways website.

Cold and dry next couple of days.. then snow chances and temperatures increase late week into weekend

Cold high pressure building over the Prairies today will bring cold but snowfree conditions today into Thursday over southern Manitoba. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal with highs around minus 10, and lows tonight near -20C, although Wednesday will likely moderate briefly to around -7c.  By Thursday evening, a wave of snow will be pushing across southern Manitoba ahead of a warm front that will be moving in from the west. This front will usher in milder air for Friday into the weekend, with temperatures climbing towards the freezing mark. Additional snow is possible Friday night into Saturday as another wave of precipitation pushes across southern Manitoba.   Long range guidance is hinting at a possible stronger storm system affecting southern  MB Monday bringing in a flow of milder air across the RRV with even some rain possible.    

A little more snow Saturday.. gusty south winds will give occasional blowing and drifting snow..

GEM prog valid noon Sat Nov 24th
showing band of snow moving
across southern MB

A low pressure system over southern Alberta will be tracking into southern Manitoba Saturday bringing a band of snow ahead of it. This band of snow is expected to spread into western MB overnight reaching the Interlake and RRV areas Saturday morning. The snow will push east towards the Ontario border by late afternoon with about 2-5 cm possible as the area of snow moves through. The heaviest amounts are expected mainly north and east of Winnipeg. Note that the snow will also be accompanied by brisk southerly winds gusting to 50 or 60 km/h in Winnipeg and the RRV, which will give occasional blowing and drifting snow and locally poor visibilities at times. (eastbound lanes of west-east highways will be most prone to drifting snow Saturday) Caution is advised if travelling Saturday, particularly in areas near and outside the Winnipeg perimeter.   

NOTE: Woodlands radar is currently not updating. Keep in mind that radar images from the Weatheroffice website are still on RAIN  rate and will underplay snow intensities. Consult Brads's radar viewer from A Weather Moment for radar showing more accurate SNOW rate intensities.  For latest road and highway conditions, see Manitoba highways website.