Seasonably warm weather ahead.. but another cool outbreak Sunday into early next week as heat wave builds over BC

Looking for heat over the next week?
Head west!
CPC 6-10 day outlook looks cool
for southern MB/Ontario.

Pleasant summerlike weather is in store for southern Manitoba over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure over Manitoba gradually pushes east into NW Ontario. Temperatures will climb to about 24C today and into the upper 20s Thursday, before a weak cool front pushes through Thursday night bringing a threat of showers and thunderstorms across the RRV into early Friday. Pleasant weather is expected Friday and Saturday with generally sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 20s. Unfortunately, a cold front pushing in from the north will bring a threat of showers Sunday along with a northerly push of cooler air that will likely result in high temperatures of only 18-20C for Monday and Tuesday... well below the normal high of 26C for this time of year. This northerly flow will be the result of a massive upper ridge building over western Canada early next week that will bring an extended heat wave over BC, with temperatures in the 35-40C range in the Okanagan and Fraser Valleys. A gradual moderating trend is expected over southern Manitoba by the middle to end of next week.. but as of yet, there are no indications of a pattern change to hot dry weather over us in the near future.      

June 2014: A "normal" month temperature wise.. but much wetter than usual..

June 2014 - Winnipeg Airport
Daily temperature graph and
anomaly from normal

June 2014 in Winnipeg finished with an average temperature of 17.0C, right on average for June based on the 30 year normal.  The statistic is a bit surprising given the frequent cool and rainy spells that occurred, especially in the latter half of the month. However, there were enough warm days and mild nights to boost the monthly average to "normal" values.

Rainfall was a different story. A total of 147.1 mm fell at YWG airport during June, some 57 mm (63%) above the 30 year June average of 90 mm. According to JJ's Winnipeg weather blog, this makes this June the wettest June in Winnipeg since 2000 (177 mm) and the city's 12th wettest June since records began in 1872. Totals were even higher in other parts of the city with 167 mm at my location in SW Winnipeg, and 170 mm at  the Forks downtown. It also didn't help matters that much of the rain fell over the last 3 weekends of the month, spoiling summer weekend plans for many. The rain however was even worse over western Manitoba which was deluged with record rainfall during June. In Brandon, their June rainfall total of 251.6 mm was the wettest month on record since records began in 1890. Previous wettest month was August 1980 at 217 mm. The bulk of the rain fell over the last two weeks of the month, leading to widespread overland flooding over southwest Manitoba. Rivers and lakes are at very high to record high levels across southern Manitoba, with flood warnings and high water advisories on many lakes and tributaries.  The abnormally wet conditions prompted the opening of the Red River floodway on July 1st to ease the risk of flooding in the city of Winnipeg.

So is there any hope of drier weather the rest of the summer?  Too hard to say. The next few days look promising with drier weather for the balance of the week. Increasing heat and humidity over the weekend will lead to a greater chance of showers and thunderstorms developing over southern Manitoba, but hopefully the activity will be more scattered and transitory compared to the past few episodes. Beyond that, there are no clear signals as to how the rest of the summer will shape up. Certainly there's a lot of moisture around which helps to fuel more shower and thunderstorm activity. But a favourable upper pattern can shut off the taps for long stretches as well. We're approaching the peak of summer now (mid July is our summer peak in terms of average temperature), and hopefully Mother Nature starts to take a much-needed summer break soon!

Another unsettled weekend ahead.. showers and thunderstorms likely, locally heavy at times

Another weekend, another shot of unsettled weather coming up for southern Manitoba as a warmer and more humid airmass spreads over the eastern Prairies, while periodic weather systems trigger showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. Much like last weekend, this upcoming weekend won't be a total washout with sunny, dry stretches at times. However, occasional showers and thunderstorms are likely each day, especially at night with the potential for some severe thunderstorms.. along with locally heavy rainfall. This will not be welcome news for those hoping to dry out from the wet weather over the past couple of weeks which has produced over a month's worth of rain in Winnipeg within a week. Cooler weather is expected to move in next week behind this unsettled weather pattern. 

Unsettled weekend ahead.. wet Sunday likely for Dads and runners..

After some dry and pleasant weather this week, it looks like things will be getting more unsettled this weekend over Winnipeg and the Red River valley as a pair of weather systems affect the region. The first wave of precipitation is expected to move in Friday night into Saturday morning ahead of a warm front pushing up from North Dakota, possibly giving 5-10 mm to Winnipeg by Saturday afternoon (although some models are showing much less.. only a couple mm with the first wave). We'll get a bit of a break Saturday afternoon before another wave of rain moves in Saturday night into Sunday as a more potent system intensifies over northern Minnesota. That will likely bring steadier and heavier rain for Father’s Day (and the Manitoba Marathon) with 15-25 mm possible for Winnipeg. Not the best timing on the weekend, but the rain will be beneficial for farmers in the Red River valley, and most marathon runners would rather run in the rain than in the heat. Rain is expected to taper off later Sunday into Sunday night as the system pulls east.

Warm finish to May salvages slow start to spring..

Temperature departure from normal
for last week of May shows core of warmth
over northern Plains/southern MB (finally!)   

After a dreadfully long cold winter and slow start to spring, persistent warm weather finally returned to southern Manitoba for the end of May, with temperatures some 5-10C above normal over the last week of the month. The pattern change to warm weather was long overdue and finally signalled a break in the below normal temperature pattern that had persisted since last fall. Thanks to the late month warmth, the month finished with an average temperature of 11.3C, just 0.3C shy of normal for May (1981-2010 average of 11.6C)

The warm weather included the season's first 30C weather in Winnipeg, with highs of 33.3C on May 24th (record high) and 32.7C on May 29th. . These marked the hottest May days in Winnipeg since 1995 and the first time since 1995 that we've seen two or more 30C days in May. Amazingly, this hot weather came only 10 days after a trace of snow was recorded on the 14th, the only snow of the month. Rainfall for the month was only 42 mm at YWG airport.. about 75% of the normal May rainfall of 54 mm. All in all, a summer like end to May, much appreciated by long suffering residents of southern Manitoba!

For more details on May statistics, see JJ's Winnipeg Weather blog May summary.