Nice warmup on the way this week

If the cold weather this weekend was a little too early for your liking, take heart.. warmer weather is on the way across the Prairies this week. A surge of mild Pacific air will push into Alberta Monday and then spread into southern SK and southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday, pushing temperatures above the freezing mark once again. The mild weather is forecast to continue through the end of the week before a brief cooldown on the weekend.

Clipper to bring more snow by Thursday night.. colder weather for the weekend..

An Alberta clipper system is forecast to track across southern Manitoba Thursday night bringing a band of light to moderate snow mainly along and north of the TransCanada corridor. Snow from this system will spread into western Manitoba Thursday afternoon and push into the northern RRV Thursday evening. Snowfall amounts of 2-5 cm are likely by Friday morning with 5-10 cm possible over the Riding Mtns and southern Interlake. (see attached HPC probability map of snowfall>= 5 cm) The snow should pull off into NW Ontario Friday with northerly winds bringing in colder weather for the weekend. High temperatures will only reach the -8C range while overnight lows drop into the minus teens.. with -20C possible in some areas.

Weekend storm system brings first significant snowfall across southern Manitoba

The storm system that tracked across southern Manitoba over the weekend brought the season's first snowfall to much of southern Manitoba, including Winnipeg and the Red River valley last night. Light rain yesterday changed to snow in the evening and continued overnight bringing a coating of about 3-4 cm of wet snow to Winnipeg by Monday morning. The heaviest snowfall with this storm system however was concentrated towards the SK border where 20-30 cm of snow was recorded near the Swan River area beginning Saturday night. Here are some snowfall reports from the latest storm..

Mafeking .............. 28 cm (between Swan River and The Pas)
Cowan ................. 28 cm (east of Swan River)
Swan River ........... 20 cm
Roblin .................... 17 cm
Gilbert Plains ........ 17 cm (west of Dauphin)
Grand Rapids ........ 14 cm
Elkhorn ................... 14 cm
Rossburn ................ 14 cm (western Riding Mtn Park)
Oakbank ................. 6 cm
Winnipeg ................ 3 cm (Rob's Obs)
Steinbach ............... 2 cm

Weekend system to bring rain to RRV.. snow towards SK border..

The storm system that will be affecting southern Manitoba this weekend is expected to track across the western RRV Saturday night pushing through the Interlake towards the Ontario border Sunday. The bulk of precipitation with this system is expected to fall north and west of the low track, with most of the precipitation falling as snow towards the SK border. Snow is expected to develop over eastern SK late Saturday then spread northeastward towards the MB border Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow will then continue over the northern Interlake pushing across the north basin of Lake Winnipeg during the day. At this point, it looks like a general 10-15 cm of snow is possible along the SK/MB border especially from Roblin up through the Swan River area towards The Pas. (see graphic from NOAA HPC showing probability of 10 cm or more snowfall) Similar amounts of snow are expected over neighbouring eastern SK. Further south, some light rain is expected to fall over the RRV Saturday night into Sunday, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflurries by Sunday afternoon as colder air wraps in behind the system. Overall though, the bulk of wintery weather with this system is expected to fall well north and west of Winnipeg. People planning on travelling through the Swan River/Roblin/Yorkton/Kamsack areas late Saturday into Sunday should be prepared for winterlike driving conditions.

UPDATE.. 8 am Nov 6. Here's a webcam image from Assessippi ski resort this morning along the MB/SK border near Roblin. At least 10 cm of snow was reported in the area overnight with another 5 cm or more expected today before things taper off. Road conditions in western MB and southern SK are listed as snowcovered and slippery this morning with travel not advised on some highways.

Some snowfall observations from southern MB and SK last night into today..

Mafeking, MB ......... 27 cm (between Swan River and The Pas) (5 pm)
Pelly SK ................... 24 cm (west of Swan River near Kamsack) (5 pm)
Grand Rapids MB ... 14 cm (6 pm)
Yorkton SK .............. 10 cm (8 am)
Roblin MB................. 10 cm (8 am)
Rossburn MB ........... 9 cm (8 am)
Regina SK.................. 6-10 cm (8 am)
Saltcoats SK ................ 8 cm (SE of Yorkton) (8 am)
Gilbert Plains MB .... 5 cm (west of Dauphin) (8 am)

Storm system still threatens rain/snow over southern MB this weekend..

Models continue to indicate the likelihood of a storm system emerging out of the central Rockies and moving into the northern Plains this weekend, bringing an area of rain and wet snow over southern MB Saturday into Sunday. As usual with these systems, determining where the rain/snow line will set up is difficult to pinpoint several days ahead.. but a growing consensus is emerging that the bulk of the snow will likely fall mainly west and north of the Red River valley (especially in areas with higher elevation), with mainly rain over the Red River valley and SE MB. Even here though, rain may change over to snow Sunday morning as colder air wraps in on the backside of the system, with some slushy accumulations possible before the area of precipitation moves out. Again, the storm system is still a few days out and things can change.. so stay tuned as we monitor the progress of this potential first snowmaker of the season for parts of southern MB.