Weekend system to bring rain to RRV.. snow towards SK border..

The storm system that will be affecting southern Manitoba this weekend is expected to track across the western RRV Saturday night pushing through the Interlake towards the Ontario border Sunday. The bulk of precipitation with this system is expected to fall north and west of the low track, with most of the precipitation falling as snow towards the SK border. Snow is expected to develop over eastern SK late Saturday then spread northeastward towards the MB border Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow will then continue over the northern Interlake pushing across the north basin of Lake Winnipeg during the day. At this point, it looks like a general 10-15 cm of snow is possible along the SK/MB border especially from Roblin up through the Swan River area towards The Pas. (see graphic from NOAA HPC showing probability of 10 cm or more snowfall) Similar amounts of snow are expected over neighbouring eastern SK. Further south, some light rain is expected to fall over the RRV Saturday night into Sunday, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflurries by Sunday afternoon as colder air wraps in behind the system. Overall though, the bulk of wintery weather with this system is expected to fall well north and west of Winnipeg. People planning on travelling through the Swan River/Roblin/Yorkton/Kamsack areas late Saturday into Sunday should be prepared for winterlike driving conditions.

UPDATE.. 8 am Nov 6. Here's a webcam image from Assessippi ski resort this morning along the MB/SK border near Roblin. At least 10 cm of snow was reported in the area overnight with another 5 cm or more expected today before things taper off. Road conditions in western MB and southern SK are listed as snowcovered and slippery this morning with travel not advised on some highways.

Some snowfall observations from southern MB and SK last night into today..

Mafeking, MB ......... 27 cm (between Swan River and The Pas) (5 pm)
Pelly SK ................... 24 cm (west of Swan River near Kamsack) (5 pm)
Grand Rapids MB ... 14 cm (6 pm)
Yorkton SK .............. 10 cm (8 am)
Roblin MB................. 10 cm (8 am)
Rossburn MB ........... 9 cm (8 am)
Regina SK.................. 6-10 cm (8 am)
Saltcoats SK ................ 8 cm (SE of Yorkton) (8 am)
Gilbert Plains MB .... 5 cm (west of Dauphin) (8 am)

Storm system still threatens rain/snow over southern MB this weekend..

Models continue to indicate the likelihood of a storm system emerging out of the central Rockies and moving into the northern Plains this weekend, bringing an area of rain and wet snow over southern MB Saturday into Sunday. As usual with these systems, determining where the rain/snow line will set up is difficult to pinpoint several days ahead.. but a growing consensus is emerging that the bulk of the snow will likely fall mainly west and north of the Red River valley (especially in areas with higher elevation), with mainly rain over the Red River valley and SE MB. Even here though, rain may change over to snow Sunday morning as colder air wraps in on the backside of the system, with some slushy accumulations possible before the area of precipitation moves out. Again, the storm system is still a few days out and things can change.. so stay tuned as we monitor the progress of this potential first snowmaker of the season for parts of southern MB.

Dry and mild for Halloween.. Potential Colorado low storm system threatens rain/snow for upcoming weekend..

It will be ideal weather for trick or treating this evening with above normal temperatures and dry conditions forecast. Cloudy skies this morning will give way to afternoon sunshine along with brisk southerly winds of 30-50 km/h that will send temperatures up to the 10-11C mark this afternoon. For this evening, expect partly cloudy skies and temperatures of +5 to +8C, with diminishing southwest winds... about as good as it gets in southern MB for Halloween.

The rest of the week looks uneventful with generally dry weather and above normal temperatures. Attention will then turn to the upcoming weekend as models are indicating the potential of a Colorado low storm system moving into the Northern Plains spreading an area of rain and snow over the Dakotas and southern MB Saturday into Sunday. At this point, it's still too early to be more precise on what areas will see snow and what areas will see rain, if any. Currently, models are suggesting that the storm will track from Colorado through Nebraska into NW Minnesota with the rain/snow line setting up somewhere through the RRV. This would give a higher threat of rain over southeastern MB and snow over southwest MB. This of course will be highly dependent on the actual track and intensity of the storm which is still in question. Still, it's the first potential storm of the season for us to monitor.. and we'll stay on top of it to see how it unfolds. Stay tuned!

Seasonable weather this week

Generally dry and seasonable weather is expected over southern Manitoba over the next few days as a zonal flow predominates over the central continent. Today will be a beautiful fall day over the Red River valley with sunny skies and temperatures of 10-13C (warmest in the south) although some cloud is spreading over the northern valley through the Interlake regions (towards Gimli and Grand Beach). A system passing through the Dakotas is forecast to spread cloud and some precipitation mainly south of the border Monday night into Tuesday. A ridge of high pressure will follow in the wake of that system bringing generally dry and seasonable weather for the remainder of the week.

Brisk and cool this weekend.. lake effect showers possible

It will be a brisk and cool weekend over southern Manitoba with increasing northwesterly winds as a strong storm system intensifies over northern Ontario this weekend. Northwest winds of 30-40 km/h Saturday will increase to 40 gusting 60 km/h Sunday as the storm system intensifies. The cool northwest winds blowing over the 13C waters of the Manitoba lakes will generate bands of lake effect showers mainly off Lake Winnipeg, with localized bands of rain to the southeast of the lakes. Brisk and cool conditions are expected through early next week with temperatures in the single digits before calmer weather by mid week.