More severe storms this afternoon.. Fall-like Saturday

Southern MB remains under a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon as a low pressure system over eastern North Dakota draws a warm and humid airmass northward. Morning thunderstorm activity has pushed into the northern Interlake this afternoon, while the south gets a temporary reprieve from the severe weather. However, as the North Dakota low moves into southern MB later today, a flow of warm and humid air will be drawn over southeast MB while a cold front pushes in from the west. This will set the stage for additional severe thunderstorms to develop, especially over the Red River valley and southeast MB. Strong winds and large hail will be the main threat, however favourable wind shear profiles over southeast MB may give the threat of tornadoes with any supercell thunderstorms that develop.

As this low pressure system moves north into the Interlake tonight, it will deepen into an almost fall-like storm by Saturday morning with strong west to northwest winds developing on the backside of the low. Gale warnings have been issued for the MB lakes with west to northwest gales of 40 knots forecast for Saturday. This will likely generate large waves over the south basins of Lakes Winnipeg and Manitoba with possible shoreline erosion problems on eastern and southern shores.  Temperatures will also be unseasonably cool Saturday with highs only in the mid teens along with occasional rain making it feel more like September than mid July.  Not a good day for Grand Beach unless you like windsurfing!    

Severe storms Thursday evening?

Looks like another setup for possible severe thunderstorms to develop across Southern MB late Thursday into Thursday evening. A low pressure system and trough will be moving across southern SK Thursday moving to the SK/MB border by Thursday evening.  A warm front extending east of this system will lie across the MB/ND border by evening which will be the focus for thunderstorm development.  South of the warm front, warm and humid air will be advecting north from the Dakotas and will nose into Southern MB especially south and west of Winnipeg.  Favourable low level wind shear and an increasing jet stream aloft will set the stage for supercell storms to develop across the Dakotas and southwest MB, with the potential for large hail and possible tornadoes. The limiting factor in this setup will be how much moisture can de drawn into this system in a short period of time, since dewpoints are quite low across the northern Plains today. As a result, the severe weather threat may be late Thursday before sufficient moisture can be drawn into this system. Stay tuned..    

Thunderstorms possible Saturday evening

Hot weather will be returning to southern MB over the next couple of days with highs approaching 30 degrees Friday, likely reaching the low 30s on Saturday. Saturday will also see increasing humidity levels as southerly winds tap more humid air to our south and advect it north. This will set the stage for possible strong to severe thunderstorms to develop by Saturday evening over the Red River valley as a weak cold front approaches from the west. Behind the cold front, more comfortable conditions will return for Sunday with seasonably warm and less humid conditions.  

Some smoke and fireworks for Canada Day

Mother Nature has served up some of her own Canada Day fireworks today with some severe thunderstorms firing up over southeast MB ahead of a cold front pushing through from the north. The front moved through Winnipeg just before 5 pm, shifting winds into the north and dropping temperatures and humidity levels noticeably bringing relief from the hot and humid conditions this afternoon. The brisk northerly winds however are ushering in a large area of smoke aloft from northern SK forest fires into southern MB. Residents of southern MB will notice a hazy look to the sky this evening along with locally reduced visibilities, a brilliant red sunset, and a distinct smell of smoke.

Heat building over Prairies

A large upper ridge of high pressure over western Canada is bringing the season's first taste of hot weather over the western Prairies today which will be spreading east into southern MB by Monday. High temperatures in southern Alberta will soar into the mid 30s today, while parts of the Okanagan in BC will hit the 40 degree mark. Here in Winnipeg, we have yet to hit 30 degrees this year.. but it looks like we will finally hit the mark on Monday with a forecast high of 31c. The 30 degree weather will be short lived however as cooler air moves in on the July 1st holiday and persists for the rest of the week. Temperatures on the July 1st holiday will still be warm.. in the upper 20s.. but they will be cooling off by evening as northerly winds bring in cooler air from the north. It should be dry however with no precipitation expected. Conditions for the remainder of the week look pleasant with generally sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 20s. Long range models are hinting at a return of hotter weather over southern MB next weekend into next week.