Milder weather.. but when will the snow go?

Looks like a couple of milder days coming up, with near to slightly above freezing temperatures forecast through Wednesday. (Not sure about the +2 for today.. southerly wind out of an Arctic ridge.. but we should see near freezing anyways) This, along with that strengthening March sun, should help melt some of that 20-30 cm snowpack across the Red River valley. But it's going to take more than a couple of mild days to get rid of all this snow.. so the question is.. when can we expect this snowcover to go completely in the Winnipeg area? If we get into a mild pattern, the snow can go pretty quickly this time of year, sometimes within a few days. But this year may be a little slower due to an expected pattern of below normal temperatures the rest of the month.

For reference, here's a list of average dates when Winnipeg lost its snow cover over the last few years (+/- a couple of days depending on your location)

2007.. March 28 (30 cm snowpack on March 24th)
2006.. April 4
2005.. April 4
2004.. April 5
2003.. March 22
2002.. March 30
2001.. April 3
2000.. Feb 22 (+16.5C by March 6)

Based on this, climatology would suggest our snowcover should be gone the first week of April or so this year, barring any large snowstorms before then (let's hope not!) Take the poll (right) to vote on when you think we'll lose our snowcover this year.

Snow moving into Winnipeg this evening

The snow has been having a tough time surfacing in Winnipeg and much of the Red River valley this evening. Radar has been showing echoes over us much of the evening, however dry air in the low levels has been evaporating the snow before it hits the ground. However it looks like a leading edge of snow will finally make it in by 10 pm or so into Winnipeg from the west, and with those gusty southerly winds of 40 to 60 km/h, look for visibilities to drop significantly in snow and blowing snow, perhaps 1 km or less especially in open areas outside the city. The snow should last for a few hours with up to 5 cm possible before it tapers off overnight.

Another -30 morning

With a low of -32 at Winnipeg airport this morning, this marked the 21st time this winter the airport has recorded a low of -30 or lower. There were 3 occurrences in Dec, 10 in Jan, and 7 in Feb.  

As for -30 temperatures in March, it does occur from time to time. Last year we hit -30.8C on March 5th, virtually a year ago to the day.  And back in 2003, 6 of the first 8 days in March registered lows of -30 or lower. At Winnipeg airport, the latest -30 reading in March was March 24, 1974 (-31.7) while the latest -30 reading ever in Winnipeg was on March 30, 1882 (-31.1) 

That being said, it looks like we'll see another -30 night tonight although we get a bit of a southerly wind overnight which may prevent the airport from bottoming out as cold as last night. Then that should be the last of the -30 weather, dare I say for the season?!  We have a nice warming trend over the weekend into next week, with temperatures near freezing next week. Hopefully, this upcoming mild weather lasts for awhile, but I'm concerned that we'll fall back into the same pattern of the past few weeks with a return to below normal temperatures by the end of next week. Hopefully, that doesn't pan out.

Note the record high for Winnipeg today.. 16.5C in 2000. That's what can happen here in early March when there's no snow on the ground!  That year we lost our snowcover by the end of February, leading to some exceptionally mild weather early in March. 

Another cold snap

Well, like it or not (and I suspect most people are in the latter category) another cold snap is on the way, as the weather pattern of February persists into March. Another Arctic high is poised to push south across the Prairies over the next day or two, bringing yet another cold snap to southern MB. Temperatures will be well below normal this week, with daily highs in the minus teens and lows in the minus 20s. In fact, we may even get close to the -30 mark again by Thursday or Friday morning (and you thought it was safe to put that block heater cord away!) Temperatures will be moderating over the weekend into next week, but at this point, there doesn't appear to be a major pattern change to signal a welcome sign of spring. Note that last year at this time, we had twice as much snow on the ground as this year... however mild temperatures in the last 10 days of the month quickly eliminated the snowpack by the 28th. Here's hoping it happens again this year!

Speaking of snowpack.. thank you to the city of Winnipeg snowcrew who put a mountain of snow halfway up my front lawn today (and chewed up half my lawn along with it!). As it wasn't tough enough to get rid of the snow that's out there already, now I have to watch Mount Everest slowly melt away in front of my house. Leave it on the boulevard next time please!!

February climate summary

Cold and variable..

In what will likely be a surprising statistic to most Winnipeg residents, Feb 2008 turned out to be the coldest February since… last year! Although the month averaged some 5 degrees below normal (-18.1C at Winnipeg airport, -17.0C at my site), it was still not as cold as Feb 2007 which averaged -18.8C (-16.9C here), thanks to a very cold first half that saw temperatures drop below -40C at the airport. This year, the cold wasn’t as intense, but temperatures were generally below normal most of the month, occasionally interrupted by brief mild spells. The result was a variable month with large swings in temperatures as cold Arctic outbreaks would be moderated every few days by weather systems crossing the province from the west. This roller coaster pattern was often accompanied by gusty winds, with several episodes of severe windchills below -40 during the month adding to the perception that the month was colder than actual temperatures indicated. Temperatures for the month at my location ranged from a high of +0.4C on the 16th, to a low of -34.5C on the 20th.

Snowfall was a little higher than normal, with about 20 cm recorded at my site (14 cm normal for February) This was mainly due to meager snowfalls every few days from passing weather systems, the largest fall giving 6 cm on Feb 28. Snowpack was fairly constant at around 20 cm during the month, about half the snowdepth this time last year. This has led to a low risk of Red River flooding this year barring any major changes in precipitation over the next month or two.

All in all.. a cold but variable month with above average snowfall.