The new URL for my main Rob's Obs website will be
http://aweathermoment.com/robs-obs/robsobs/robs/home.htm
http://aweathermoment.com/robs-obs/robsobs/robs/home.htm
I hope to have most of my webpages moved over to the Weather Moment server by March 6th. Note also that my www.robsobs.ca URL will be mirrored over to the the above URL as of that date as well. Please update your bookmarks to the above URL if you would like to continue to access my site. Thank you.
(Of course, you can always google Rob's Obs anytime to find it the site as well)
An excellent choice and thanks for the Months but not quite 30 day notice
ReplyDeleteAn area of snow to our west moving into Winnipeg this evening. Should start around 8-9 pm and continue though midnight before tapering off by 3 am. Could pick up about 5 cm so during that time. Risk of ice pellets by morning.
ReplyDeleteAnother prolonged warm spell on its way starting tomorrow and through the weekend. Very mild air and eventually a more southwesterly flow should yield double digit highs over some traditional warm spots. An early and prolonged snow-melt period should be welcomed, and will mitigate flooding risk.
ReplyDeleteSome concern regarding a system moving up from the southwest to begin next week. Temperatures will be very mild ahead of it, and extensive snow-free surfaces will develop off to our south by that time which will serve as a warm air source. Depending on exact track, the system has potential to produce rain and have obvious hydrologic impacts (fast snow-melt), although we will likely cool down again after it passes. Current guidance showing no more than 10 mm, but the system will have to be watched.
Very odd that EC's forecast for Monday for Winnipeg is saying "sunny". All guidance showing a good threat of rain that day, possibly significant with 5-15 mm possible over Winnipeg/RRV. That "sunny" forecast is a purely automated forecast derived from one run from one model, which shows the danger of using deterministic models (rather than ensembles) to drive automated forecasts. Any human meteorologist would never produce such an optimistic forecast given the model guidance that day.
ReplyDelete12z model runs today have all come in with about 10-15 mm of rain for Winnipeg Monday, with the GEPS ensemble showing about 8 mm (usually conservative, but gives a good first guess). Rain develops Monday morning and should taper off Monday night, with a possibility of some brief downpours Monday. An actual spring rain in February! If we get 10 mm or more rain Monday, it will be only the 4th time in Winnipeg history (since 1873) that we've seen that much rain in one day in February.. all since 1998.
Top rainiest February days in Winnipeg..
1. 20.0 mm .... Feb 25 2000
2. 14.6 mm .... Feb 9 2009 (bad icing)
3. 10.5 mm .... Feb 26 1998
4. 7.6 mm .... Feb 23 1958
5. 5.8 mm .... Feb 21 1877
Now, rain in February can cause problems with icing (like Feb 9 2009).. but hopefully the temperatures will be mild enough over the weekend to minimize the amount of cold surfaces for the rain to freeze on. Nonetheless, watch out for locally slippery conditions where snow/ice remain intact Monday.
Correction to the rainiest days list. There was a 12.5 mm on Feb 25 1998 (followed by another 10.5 mm on the 26th) So there have been 4 days in Feb with at least 10 mm of rain, all since 1998.
DeleteTop rainiest February days in Winnipeg..
1. 20.0 mm .... Feb 25 2000
2. 14.6 mm .... Feb 9 2009 (bad icing)
3. 12.5 mm .... Feb 25 1998
4. 10.5 mm .... Feb 26 1998
5. 7.6 mm .... Feb 23 1958
Models trending slightly further east with heaviest rain on Monday.. looks like 10-20 mm possible over SE Manitoba with 5-10 mm for Winnipeg/RRV. GFK even talking about a risk of thunder over eastern ND/NW MN!
DeleteEnded up with only 1.5 mm at my place.. heavier amounts of 5-10 mm over western RRV and towards Ont border.
DeleteRob, it unfortunately looks like the pattern will turn colder for at least part of March. What are your thoughts on This?
ReplyDeleteYes, it does look like we get back below normal again for the first half of March, much like Jan and Feb also had below normal starts. Looks like we're in a cycle of 2 weeks below normal then 2 weeks above normal.
DeleteThe good news is below normal in March is not the same as below normal in January. Normals are rising quickly now and sun is getting stronger..
Sustained below normal temperatures will be difficult without considerable fresh snowcover. A couple of systems may affect us midweek and early next week (but uncertainty as to track and phase type). Fortunately a big Colorado Low will miss us and affect the Twin Cities potentially with heavy snow late this work week.
DeleteDid Winnipeg hit a record high temperature for February 17? EC data says Winnipeg was 0.1 degree shy of the record. However, CBC claimed the temperature reached 5.6, which is 0.2 degrees above the record.
ReplyDeleteNo, Winnipeg didn't hit a record high for Feb 17th. The official climate site at Winnipeg airport (known as "XWG - Winnipeg A CS") had a high of 5.3C yesterday, which was 0.1C off the record high for Feb 17th. The quoted high of 5.6C was recorded from the NavCanada weather station at YWG airport, which is NOT official for EC climate data.
DeleteThe 2 sites are usually within 0.3C of each other which is not that big a deal for overall temperatures.. except of course when you're dealing with temperature records to 0.1C resolution which is when issues sometimes arise.
I know it's confusing having 2 weather stations at YWG airport, but EC needs to have an official site there that they can maintain and quality control. They have no control over NC equipment. So for official climate data purposes, EC uses data from the XWG site.
Clouds from approaching system will likely hold temperatures up for a large portion of the overnight period. Warm front begins sharpening up tomorrow with an easterly flow developing over our region. Two-tiered system with southern low strengthening and moving northwards out of Wyoming/Colorado Sunday night. Most models show Winnipeg briefly entering the warm sector/ warm conveyor belt of the system early Monday. Models hang up the warmest air and highest dewpoints (8-10 C!) just to our south, but given the SE flow, they are possibly underestimating the northwards extent of this surge up the RRV. That will affect the amount of moisture/instability and precipitation coming up on the LLJ. Under that scenario, a large part of our snowcover would disappear. Dry slot and westerly flow moves in by midday Monday with no cold advection to speak of until Wednesday..
ReplyDeleteWell those near 10 C dewpoints never made much further north than Fargo.. a bit surprised they did not even reach Grand Forks. Lingering snow pack north of Interstate 94 in US likely limited NW extent of the surface warm sector. Having said that - today's rain and well above freezing temperatures last night have further eroded our snowpack. Open areas are down to what looks like about 10 to at most 15 cm.
DeleteTemperatures may stay up tonite if we can keep low clouds before next small disturbance moves in tomorrow morning. Looks like light precipitation only with a mix of snow, freezing rain, and rain. One more day of above freezing temperatures followed by a gradual cool down to near normal values starting Wednesday.