Thursday, November 03, 2016

Unseasonably mild start to November for southern MB.. double digit highs possible through Remembrance Day

November is off to a mild start as a large upper ridge of high pressure takes hold over mid-continent, bringing an extended spell of above normal temperatures across the Prairies. Temperatures have soared into the mid to upper teens over North Dakota, southern SK and Alberta, with even some 20C temperatures in southern Alberta (21C in Pollockville, 20C in Drumheller)  The mild weather will push into southern Manitoba over the next day or so as a warm front slowly moves north. This front was accompanied by extensive low cloud and fog today over southern Manitoba, which was slow to clear as increasing temperatures aloft produced a strengthening inversion that trapped the low level moisture much of the day. Gradually, this low cloud and patchy fog is expected to push north and clear during the night low as level southerly winds increase this evening. Note however, winds are expected to decrease overnight which may lead to additional low cloud and fog development in some areas early Friday. Friday should be a nicer day with morning cloud and fog patches giving way to a mix of sun and cloud, and highs finally reaching the double digits across much of southern MB. The nice conditions are expected to continue into the weekend with highs in the mid teens, possibly upper teens along the Pembina escarpment. A disturbance tracking up through the Dakota may bring some light showers Sunday night into Monday, but they shouldn't amount to much with a few mm possible. Mild weather should continue through next week with highs at or above the 10C mark through Remembrance Day, and nighttime temperatures at or above freezing. Note that the longest stretch of highs at or above 10C in Winnipeg in November is 8 days from Nov 2-9 1963. There's a possibility that Winnipeg could be challenging that record. Otherwise, enjoy the October like start to November!          

9 comments:

  1. Good to see your blog being active.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Another record breaker on tap for Winnipeg today (Nov 9) We should ht 16-17C, which beats record of 14.4C for today set in 1923 and 1930. This will also be our 6th day in a row of double digits temps with another one tomorrow. That will tie 2009 as our 2nd longest Nov double digit streak at 7 days. Unfortunately, we have a one day cool off on Friday that will keep us in the single digits before we rebound back into double digits again on the weekend. If it wasn't for that one day cool off, we would have set a new record streak for double digit temps in Nov (would have been 10 in a row on Sunday). Regardless, Winnipeg will likely set a record for mildest first half of November since records began in 1872.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow.. with sunshine and a balmy southwest wind, Winnipeg overachieved today with a record high of 18.8C. So toasty, I was putting up Christmas lights in a tshirt. Glorious day.. and the latest date Winnipeg has ever hit 18C or more (prev latest was 18.9C on Nov 7 1931)

      Delete
  3. Long ways out and things will likely change, but GFS and GDPS showing midwest storm system bringing potential first significant snowfall to Winnipeg/RRV around Nov 18-19th. Euro is further south with main system with an inverted trof into southern MB. Will see how models trend with this system.. too early to say if we'll get anything out of it, but something that bears watching..

    ReplyDelete
  4. Weather network app says 15 cm next weekend!!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I expect that number to jump around a lot until we get closer to the event. Snowfall will depend on storm track, intensity and timing of precip phase change to snow. Right now, models show precip starting as rain in RRV/SE MB before changing to snow as colder air work in.. but too early to say when that will occur, or where that rain/snow line will set up. That will have a large impact on snowfall totals. The best we can do right now is not focus on the actual amounts, but rather the track and timing of the storm. We'll need to get closer to the event before we get a better idea of snowfall amounts.

      Delete
  5. Was that the first real hard frost inside the perimeter this am

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Pretty much.. got down to -5.8C at the airport, and -3.7C at my site. Coldest of the season so far. Still above normal though.. normal lows now are around -8C. Shows how incredibly above normal we've been. Today will be our 22nd straight day above normal (since Oct 21st)

      Delete
  6. Both Euro and GFS now advertising major snowstorm for Winnipeg/RRV and much of southern MB Friday into Friday night.. while Canadian GDPS is saying storm will miss us to the south. We'll see how models trend over next few days, but it appears that consensus is leaning towards a significant snowstorm for southern MB late in the week. That will mark the end of our October like November. Stay tuned.

    ReplyDelete