Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Beautiful fall weather to close out September and begin October. Unsettled weather returns next week with colder conditions by Thanksgiving weekend

Lovely fall weather will finally prevail over Winnipeg and the RRV over the next few days as a sprawling high pressure ridge brings sunny and milder weather into southern Manitoba. Today will see plenty of sunshine and light winds.. a pleasant change from the cloudy, cool and blustery conditions over the last couple of days.  And the good news is that this pleasant fall weather is expected to continue through the weekend into early next week with generally sunny skies, and above normal temperatures near the 20C mark. Unfortunately, it looks like the ideal weather will be giving way to more unsettled conditions next week, as a strong low pressure system organizes in the western US and tracks towards southern Manitoba. This system will likely bring rain back into our area next Tuesday through Thursday, with much cooler conditions expected by late week into Thanksgiving weekend behind the system. In fact, model guidance is suggesting highs only in the single digits over Thanksgiving weekend with a killing frost possible.            


  1. Wow. The daily high minimum temperature for Oct. 3 was broken by a full two degrees: 15.3 C. And with a high temperature of 26.3 C, it was certainly a beautiful early October day.

  2. THis late fall extensive rain is eerily similar to 2010 as is the season to date. On the prairies. At

  3. Dr jeff Masters blog 1100 am comment sums up this unpredictable disaster in the atlantic Hurricane Matthew and TSNicole. At
    "Thanks to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road. But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse profanity."

  4. Hey Rob,

    Do you have any thoughts on the upcoming winter season?
    Accuweather says below normal temperatures and below normal precipitation? Do you agree?


    1. Jeff..

      I have no idea what this upcoming winter will be like. Unlike last winter which was more easily predictable due to a record strong El Nino (which has a strong correlation for mild winter for us), we have no such signals this year to steer us one way or the other. The Pacific will be in a neutral or weak La Nina phase, which means it will have little impact on our winter. Instead, other climatic oscillations (such as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) or Pacific North America oscillation (PNA) will have more of an influence for us. Trouble is, these oscillations are harder to predict in the medium to long range, which makes it difficult to make a winter outlook with much skill (as opposed to when a strong El Nino is present) So basically, it's impossible to give a winter outlook this year with much confidence.

      The only thing I can say with some certainty is that it will likely be colder than last winter.. but it's tough to say how much colder (near normal, below normal?) or how much snow we can expect. Winter has started early in the western Prairies, but the Arctic has remained mild, with record low Arctic sea ice again. This could mean another tame fall and late start to winter for us.. but we're always at the mercy of an untimely early season snowstorm that could start the snowpack here, and then we're toast. But as long as we can hold off the snow, the better the chance of a less harsh winter.

      I know this is a long way of saying "I don't know", but it's reality. Sometimes, we just don't know.. there's a limit to predictability, and I'd rather say "I don't know" than give a wild guess.

  5. I appreciate your candid response in regards to the question by another reader about this winters forecast.
    Considering the numerous variables , you managed to give an answer that somehow still answers the question.