March will be ending much like it began.. below normal (although not quite as cold as the the -37C we had on March 1st!) Clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop to the -20C mark yet again early Friday, which would be the 15th time this month with a daily temperature of -20C or lower (normally, March only sees 5 such days in Winnipeg, and usually in the first half of the month). After a chilly start, Friday should see a nice afternoon with highs near -5C, still well below normal for this time of year, but feeling much nicer with sunny skies and light winds. The weekend looks somewhat unsettled as a weak clipper system tracks across southern Manitoba. This system will push a warm front across the area with a chance of some light snow ahead of it Saturday morning, before southerly winds bring in milder air for the afternoon as temperatures climb above the freezing mark to +2C in Winnipeg (which is actually normal for this time of year) We may even see our first rain since early November Saturday night as a band of showers moves through the Red River valley ahead of a cold front. The mild air will be short lived however as the system advances east Sunday, with brisk northerly winds developing behind the system Sunday bringing falling temperatures. This will set the stage for a cold last day of March on Monday with temperatures some 10-15C below normal. March will likely finish with an average temperature around -12.7C in Winnipeg, about 7C below normal (normal March temperature is -5.8C based on 1981-2010 averages) and the coldest March in Winnipeg since 1996 (average temperature of -13.0C). And according to local Winnipeg weather statistician "JJ" (from Winnipeg weather blog), this would make this the coldest December-March period in Winnipeg in 115 years (since the winter of 1898-99) In other words, we've just been through the coldest 4 month stretch in Winnipeg in over a century!
(Check out this creative tribute to our endless winter to the "Sounds of Silence" - Winnipeg Free Press)
But the news isn't all grim. The outlook for the rest of next week calls for a moderating trend with temperatures climbing through the week, with highs rising above the freezing mark by mid to late week. There are hopeful signs that this MAY be the start of a more significant and prolonged pattern change to milder weather as we get into mid April. But be forewarned, Aprils following very cold winters in Winnipeg are usually colder than normal.. thanks to a later than usual snowmelt. Hopefully, a milder start to April will accelerate the return of spring to southern Manitoba.
Models showing Winnipeg could see its first measurable rain here since last fall during Saturday night. We warm sector during the night with temps climbing above freezing, with some scattered showers moving through ahead of cold frontReplyDelete
Rob, what are your thoughts on the storm system to our south on Sunday??ReplyDelete
Windows open tonight?ReplyDelete
Upon my return to Winnipeg late night on April 23rd or the wee hours on the 24th from my 3 week vacation with my family in the Philippines, I hope all the snow cover are completely disappeared.ReplyDelete
I'm finally getting away from these below normal temperatures, that Winnipeg have been coping since December.
Rob, I've noticed that models particularly the Euro has trended north with that colorado low for Monday. Will this storm impact us here Winnipeg/RRV?ReplyDelete
Hey Rob what's going on with that winter storm watch for North Dakota.ReplyDelete
Any chance of it giving us any snow?
Re: Monday stormReplyDelete
I'm surprised how far north the Euro has pushed that storm, with snow into southern RRV and SE MB, and even clipping Winnipeg with some amounts (2-5 cm) Most other guidance has been much further south with this system, with snow staying stateside, although I see the latest NAM this morning has shifted snow further north with snow up to the Canadian border. Personally, I think Winnipeg will miss out on the storm, but SE corner of Manitoba will likely get clipped. But it's definitely something to keep an eye on.. that northward trend is a bit concerning.
HPC has some nice snowfall graphic products that show snowfall estimates based time, probability and/or amounts overlaid on a google map..ReplyDelete
Here's a link to an image I posted on my Twitter account showing projected snowfall amounts for Monday.
Looks increasingly likely that SE MB will get clipped with this system.. with Winnipeg hopefully escaping on the northern edge.
We always seem to miss out on these types of south systems. Hopefully not a projection of what's to come for this summers storm seasonReplyDelete
I'll be glad if we miss out on this one. So sick of this never ending winter.ReplyDelete
I guess my passion for extreme weather doesn't end at just thunderstorms. Give me a good ol fashion snow storm as well anytime! All gonna melt soon enough anywaysReplyDelete