|Webcam showing downtown Winnipeg|
Sunday morning Nov 17 2013
Winnipeggers awoke to the first blanket of snow of the season Sunday morning as a weak storm system crossed southern MB overnight. About 3-4 cm of snow fell in the city overnight with amounts of up to 10 cm reported northwest of Winnipeg through the Portage La Prairie to Woodlands area. In addition, brisk northerly winds gusting to 50 km/h and temperatures near -3C were causing slippery conditions on area roadways, forcing the closure of the TransCanada highway between Headingley and Portage La Prairie Sunday morning. Snow will continue this morning but will taper off by afternoon as the storm system weakens while a more powerful storm system intensifies over northern Ontario.
missed it by 3 days. I'd bet on the 20th of Nov :)ReplyDelete
And here I was hoping that NAM run from a few days ago would validate, and look what I woke up to today!ReplyDelete
6 cm storm total at my place..ReplyDelete
Is this system ever going to stop it looks like its just about to leave and then restarts?ReplyDelete
Daryl.. we're on the back edge of this system, but it keeps hanging on to the bitter end. I think we'll still be in this light snow for the next hour or two before it starts tapering off. As you said, it looked like it was ending here in the city, but it filled in again on the back edge.ReplyDelete
Rob, it looks like a colder than normal pattern is taking shape over our region over the next couple of weeks or so.ReplyDelete
Isn't that unusual with a strong +AO?
Look like Environment Canada has changed their forecast for Winnipeg tonight to more light snow. Looks like the radar is starting to fill in again!!ReplyDelete
ROB, do you think that this snow that we got yesterday will stay on the ground till spring next year, or will this ALL melt away? What is your gut feeling??ReplyDelete
I think this snow is here to stay. We got about 5-10 cm in the northern RRV, with a good 7-8 cm here in Winnipeg. This late in the year, it would take a prolonged above normal pattern to get rid of this snowpack, and I don't see that happening (it may, but I don't see any signs of that right now)ReplyDelete
Southern RRV got less snow, and North Dakota is still snow free, so they'll luck out with a later snow cover than here.
Clearly the 'A CS' station is no better than the AWOS. It only measured 0.4 mm of precip yesterday... grossly underestimated. Very unfortunate that we just can't get accurate measurements anymore.ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. I checked the raw data from the A CS site, and it actually recorded 2.0 mm of melted precip yesterday. But here's the problem. If the hourly precip amount is 0.2 mm or less, the reading is ignored (due to too many false readings on no precip days) Yesterday, there were 8 hours where the A CS site recorded 0.2 mm precip, due to the steady light snow. All if them were ignored, resulting in the loss of 1.6 mm of actual precip.ReplyDelete
Even 2.0 mm seems a little low for yesterday.. I had about 6 mm of melted liquid with about 7.5 cm of snow. Those weighing precip gauges in airport sites tend to under catch snowfall..ReplyDelete
Fix one problem but create another... And I'm surprised weighing gauges are used to measure the water-equivalent of snow. The cry for quality control has never been more dire.ReplyDelete
A high of only -16 for Saturday. Ouch...Hopefully there is not much wind that day!ReplyDelete
Was your measuring station the official snow amount entered for the EC daily data last year?
Reason I ask is I noticed 4 cm is the amount of snow recorded from the last snowfall yet you say you had 7.5 cm at your place.
@Anon - How else would you measure the snow water equivalence at an auto station? Or are you saying it should be done manually instead?ReplyDelete
Yes it clearly should be manual or at least some quality control. Automation is clearly not working. EC might as well not even bother spending the money it does for taking precip amounts if the records are going to be as innacurate as they are now.ReplyDelete
Hey Rob I just noticed Accuweather is calling for 6-12cm of snow saturday night through sunday adternoon. Dont really see that from any other forecasters. What are your thoughts?ReplyDelete
Current model guidance for the weekend shows a clipper from northern Saskatchewan diving southeastward through the northern MB Interlake into NW Ontario,with a band of snow ahead of it. At this point, it looks like bulk of snow with this system would be well north of Winnipeg through central Manitoba and east of Lake Winnipeg. We may see a band of snow here along the warm front ahead of the system, and some snow on the backside, but 6-12 cm seems a little on the high side for Winnipeg given this scenario. We'll keep you posted on any changes as the weekend draws nearer..
Jeff… I guess my measurement of 3.4 cm didn't show up on the site yet. I had two measurements of 3.4 cm and then 4 cm for total of 7.4 cm. I take snowfall measurements at my "Charleswood 2" site which is still the only official snowfall observing site for EC in the city. It may not be representative for the entire city but that's all we have since the airport no longer takes snowfall readings.ReplyDelete
Looks like they're going to luck out with some mild weather Sunday in Regina for the Grey Cup. Westerly flow of Pacific air should be sending temperatures above the freezing mark by Sunday afternoon after a bitterly cold end to the week. Everything's going Riders way this year!ReplyDelete
Some of the latest model runs have pushed the snow tonight, a little further north. Maybe Winnipeg could get 2-4 cm of snow tonight!!ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. Almost all models are bringing 3-4 cm for Winnipeg tonight, mainly between 6 pm and 3 am. Looking at current radar, bulk of heaviest echoes are south of the US border as second wave of snow moves into NW North Dakota. This area will spread NE towards RRV later this afternoon into this evening. I still think bulk of snow will be south of Winnipeg over southern RRV and along US border, but looks like we'll be seeing some snow here as well, likely 2-5 cm. We then get into some nasty cold weather for the next few days behind this system with highs only in the minus teens. Thursday night into Friday, we have another clipper system go through southern Manitoba with some light snow or flurries, followed by a reinforcing shot of cold air Friday into Saturday. That clipper has a central pressure of 1030 mb, which is usually a pretty strong high pressure area, but in this case, it's relative to a massive 1050 mb high spilling into Saskatchewan Friday!ReplyDelete
Speaking of cold.. plenty of sub minus 40 readings today in the Yukon, with a -48C reading at Rabbit Kettle NWT station near the Yukon border. Yikes! A little too early for cold like that!
One must wonder if our warm string of Novembers is coming to an end. Last year's November certainly wasn't very mild.ReplyDelete
The Perimeter Shield seems to be severely overpowered tonight! Large hole around the Winnipeg area.ReplyDelete
And the hole's nicely filling in. More snow here!ReplyDelete
Not doing too well predicting these "minor" snowfall events. 5 cm here at my place as of 11 pm.. and still snowing. Should see another 2 or 3 cm before it starts tapering off after 1 am. Roads will be very slippery for the morning commute.. give yourself extra time to get into work Friday morning.ReplyDelete
-35 C in Thompson this early morning. That is just way to early for that type of cold.ReplyDelete
Didn't get too much more after 11 pm here... 5 cm total or it may gave settled a bit overnight. 9 cm snow depth on the ground.ReplyDelete
I see there is chance of flurries again tonight and Sunday.
Is this going to be a surprise 5 cm
or actually just a 30% chance.
Just wondering your thoughts.
Read the SPECIAL weather statement issued for Saskatchewan. I promise you have a good chuckle.ReplyDelete
Jeff.. We have a weak clipper moving in tonight which may bring some flurries overnight, but I don't see much accumulation out of it.. perhaps a dusting to 1 cm. High pressure builds in Friday into Saturday, with some very high pressure values noted over southern MB with values close to or over 1050 mb Saturday morning! We than have a warm front pushing through Saturday night into Sunday with a weak wave on it passing by to our north and east.. again, we may see a cm or two out of it, but typically these warm fronts aren't big snow producers for us. Snow more likely over central MB into the interlake regions.ReplyDelete
>> Anonymous said...ReplyDelete
Read the SPECIAL weather statement issued for Saskatchewan. I promise you have a good chuckle.
Anon,Ha Ha ha that is pretty pretty damn funny! I can't believe how precious on the temperature in each part of the game!
We use your webcam page quite a bit...http://members.shaw.ca/wpgwx/robsobs/ywgcams.htm
And I keep meaning to send you a new link to the Morden webcam. That one currently used hasnt worked in quite a while....so I use the one from weatherunderground site....
Thanks Dan.. The Morden webcam link works up here.. but I'll update the page with the wunderground link later today. Thanks for the feedback!ReplyDelete
That's quite the high pressure system over central SK this morning with a 1049 mb high near Meadow Lake and plenty of -25 to -35C readings under it. Models have this high intensifying even further to an unusually high 1054 mb center near Bismarck ND by Saturday morning, with a 1050 mb isobar through Winnipeg. That would be the highest pressure I've recorded at my site since 2001. I also see they've lowered Winnipeg's low from -21C to -25C tonight.. which looks like a good call given how cold it is under that high. And given the usual cold air drainage issues at YWG airport with a light NW flow, YWG airport may even be a few degrees colder!ReplyDelete
The weather channel on tv says that record low is -25 in 1938. Might beat that record tonight.ReplyDelete
1051 mb in Outlook, Saskatchewan right now.ReplyDelete
Pressure is still climbing in the province as well.
It really feels like a mid January night out there. Maybe if mother nature is giving us the January like weather now, we can double digit highs in in the dead of winter.......HA!ReplyDelete
WOW, -26 C in Dauphin already at 9:00 pm.ReplyDelete
Thanks goodness for the somewhat light breeze this morning, or it would be unbearable out there !!ReplyDelete
Hit -31C in Regina last night!ReplyDelete
I checked the GEM-GLB a few days ago, and it forecast around -30C. Not bad.
Do you know if Environment Canada is now taking official temperature readings from its 'A' CS station?
>> Anonymous said... Rob, Do you know if Environment Canada is now taking official temperature readings from its 'A' CS station?ReplyDelete
Yes.. official highs, lows and daily precipitation values for Winnipeg are taken from the Winnipeg A CS site (CS stands for climate station) This is an automated AUTO8 weather station at YWG airport owned and operated by EC.
The updated hourly temperature however still comes from the NC AWOS site at the airport which is owned and operated by NavCanada. This station however does not register daily highs, lows and precip values into the archive, which is why EC needs to use the A CS site for those important daily climate stats.
Nasty south wind this morning.. gusting to 70 kmh at the airport giving wind chills near -25. Don't let that -12C temperature fool you.. It actually feels worse than that sunny calm -25C yesterday morning. Those gusty south winds this morning will shift into the west this afternoon, allowing some milder air from Sask to move in here with temperatures rising to a pleasant -3C by late afternoon. Should feel quite nice compared to this morning.ReplyDelete
Gusty south valley wind still keeping Winnipeg on the chilly side as of noon at only -9C.. while veering winds into the SW have boosted temps up to -3C over the western RRV at Portage LP. That air should gradually work its way eastward this afternoon..ReplyDelete
Out west.. nice and balmy for the Grey Cup. Already 0C and sunny in Regina, with a nice westerly flow of Pacific air which will get them above freezing this afternoon. Mother Nature must be a Riders fan!
Tonight's forecast for Winnipeg.. " Temperature rising to minus 3 this evening then falling."ReplyDelete
Falling to what? -10? -15? -20?
Luckily, SpotWx tells me.. -5C by 9 am. Thank you SpotWx.
Temperatures have risen above freezing over the western and southern RRV, as close as Elm Creek where it's up to +2C. Watch our temperature rise to the freezing mark this evening as our winds shift into the west.ReplyDelete
LOL Rob. Rose to +1C, down to -3C at 9am. Forecast was a bit off. I'm just the messenger ;)ReplyDelete
Garth.. at least SpotWx gave me an idea, as opposed to the rather vague and open ended forecast.ReplyDelete
Rob - True. You likely know that EC has been working on a more detailed forecast page. But when/if it will be released I have no idea.ReplyDelete
Rob, what are the current indications as far snow potential for us in the next 2 weeks? Any big snowfalls possible?ReplyDelete
Garth.. They've been talking about that for awhile, but I haven't heard anything recently. Even if they come out with something, I'm sure it won't be as slick and useful as SpotWx.ReplyDelete
Weather network is showing snow all weekend into next week with significant amounts of snow.
Environment Canada website is partly cloudy all weekend. What are your thoughts?
The weather network has just released their winter forecast, and it is calling for near normal precipitation and near normal temps. In other words....this winter is not going to be a cake walk...ReplyDelete
Most models aren't showing much snow this upcoming weekend, so I'm not sure where they're getting that from. There is a clipper coming in early next week which will likely give us a few cm of snow next Monday/Tuesday.. with another big cooldown following that.ReplyDelete
Wow, the latest indications for December at least the first half of the month is not encouraging at all with models showing very cold temps for us.ReplyDelete
Rob what are your thoughts on what could be a very cold first half of December if not longer?
Rob what is your opinion for snow amounts on Wednesday?ReplyDelete
Wednesday's snow is from another one of these clippers coming through central MB and tracking into NW Ontario. Band of snow ahead of it will spread into Winnipeg/RRV Wednesday morning with a couple cm possible through midday before tapering off in the afternoon. Bigger concern will be the gusty south winds ahead of the system that could present blowing/drifting issues for Winnipeg/RRV as the snowband pushes in.
One good thing about all these cold high pressure systems is that we are getting more sunshine. As november days is usually socked in low cloud.ReplyDelete
Weather network now says 5-10 cm tmr. Hope this doesn't happen.ReplyDelete
Hey Rob, any idea how much has fallen? Nice 2 to 4 cm forecast today.ReplyDelete
Another 5 cm snowfall. These surprise snowfalls are really starting to add up!!ReplyDelete
Currently away in Montreal on a course.. heard Winnipeg got a pretty decent snowfall today (5-10 cm?)ReplyDelete
Talk about having a precipitation shield around you; Fargo N.D. has missed all the snow events of the past 2 weeks and still brown there. Seems they're just a bit too far south for these clipper systems to reachReplyDelete
Still snowing here in Winnipeg...mind you it's not amounting to much more. Rob, you have lots of shoveling to do when you get home.ReplyDelete
CJOB has been calling for 5cm tomorrow. EC has just called for flurries and TWN and Accuweather have called for trace to 2cm. Anyone else have a guess?ReplyDelete
Back from Montreal, and things look a lot whiter here than when I left. Daryl.. just a dusting for Winnipeg today as the bulk of the snow tracks to our north and east. (Although admittedly, model performance and myself have not been stellar these past couple of weeks with at least 3 clippers that have given us more snow than expected, especially Wednesday) But based on radar and short term guidance, I don't expect any surprises today.ReplyDelete
9:06 AM, November 29, 2013
Welcome back Rob. Yes those clippers were a bit of a surprise. Wednesday was pretty close to 8cm. Thanks for the infoReplyDelete
Enjoy this "warm" weekend, cause there are indications that the end of next week into the weekend will be much colder.ReplyDelete
NWS Grand Forks is already throwing around the words like... potentially hazardous cold.
Yes, definitely looking very cold for later next week.. possibly preceded by a significant winter storm over southern MB/SK by Wed-Thu time period. Still a lot of uncertainty, but it could be quite nasty based on some long term model guidance, followed by a major cold outbreak. Uggh.. not looking forward to that!ReplyDelete
Both GFS and ECMWF are indicating a major Colorado low type storm system for middle of next week (Wed-Thu) with potential for 20-30 cm of snow and blizzard conditions over southern MB and southern SK. Canadian Global model is much more progressive and has storm completely missing southern MB tracking well east into the Great Lakes. So not a total buy-on yet, but given agreement of GFS and Euro on potential for a powerful system affecting us, will definitely need to keep an eye on how models handle this system over the next few days.ReplyDelete