Monday, July 22, 2013
Cool week ahead..
It won't be very summerlike this week as a large-scale upper trough sets up over Ontario bringing a northwest flow of generally below normal temperatures over southern MB for the upcoming week. High temperatures this week will generally be running in the low 20s, some 3-5C below the average high of 26C for this time of year, making it feel more like mid to late August. For today, brisk northwest winds and generally cloudy skies will keep temperatures only near 20C before skies clear tonight allowing temperatures to dip into the single digits overnight. Tuesday looks more pleasant with sunshine and lighter winds, and afternoon highs near 24C. Another disturbance tracking through southern MB threatens more showers and possible thunderstorms for Wednesday into Wednesday night, followed by a reinforcing shot of cooler air for Thursday. Highs pressure building into southern MB is expected to bring sunshine and pleasant conditions for the weekend with temperatures around the 22-24C mark. Long range guidance is hinting at a return to more summer like weather next week.
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Guess we're going to get a little cooler than that forecast low of 10c tonight (Winnipeg) Looks like another +6 or +7 night unless we get some of that cloud over western MB moving in overnight.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteI've got a meteorological question for you. I have a low-lying grassy backyard. I have no Stevenson screen - instead I have a thermometer sitting a few inches above the grass and exposed to the sky. How erroneous will the readings be? The other night when it got down to +5.0 here, my thermometer indicated +2.0. Is this believable?
Hello Adi..
ReplyDeleteThe official standard for temperature measurements are for thermometers to be enclosed in a properly ventilated shelter (e.g. Stevenson screen) at a height of 1.5 m (4 ft) above ground level.
On clear calm nights, cool air will settle to the ground, and temperatures at grass level can be several degrees cooler than at 1.5 metres above it. This is why you can often get ground frost when the temperature at 1.5m is still above zero. A reading of +2.0C at grass level would be quite reasonable if the official temperature at 1.5m was +5C. Some weather stations actually have thermometers at grass level to record "grass minimum" temperatures.
Rob, when do you see us breaking out of this cool pattern? This should be the hottest time of the year, but it feels like mid-September!
ReplyDeleteIan..
ReplyDeleteLooks like we trend towrds more "normal"-ish temps by early next week, but no signs of any sustained heat in the next 10 days or so.
If you're looking for heat, the Okanagan is the place to be.. mid to high 30s next few days, then "cooling off" to upper 20s on the weekend..
They're calling for severe thunderstorms tonight, yet CAPE is modest 1200 - 800, Lift Index is 4 - 6 depending on where you look, which all point to rain yes, but not severe, so what factor is playing into this tonight - the low coming in from the north and the high humidity? I guess I still have a lot to learn, any books you can suggest reading, please let me know!
ReplyDeleteThere's a "dandy" looking cell on radar right now directly aligned with the departure to runway 18 at Winnipeg. Note the aircraft making immediate right or left turns on departure. Compliance with the SID (Standard Instrument Departure) would put the departing aircraft right into the cell with all that red at the center! Tornado warning alos issued foe SE of the city
ReplyDeleteSevere thunderstorm watch has ended in Winnipeg. Oh well... Some really towering clouds out there though.
ReplyDeleteBrendon... the severe thunderstorms were only forecast for this afternoon when CAPE was higher along with frontal lift. There was a chance of evening thunderstorms in the forecast with some lingering instability, but that appears to have diminished now as it appears that things have become more stable late this afternoon.
ReplyDeleteSome excitement this afternoon With a nice funnel cloud on that cell just south of Winnipeg. Lots of good pics on Twitter showing the funnel cloud extending almost to the ground. Doesn't appear to have touched down, or if it did it was only very briefly.
Hey, Rob,
ReplyDeleteDo you happen to know what the high temperature was on July 3? Hottest high of the year so far and I'm curious to know what the official reading was. Environment Canada is still reporting it as Missing while several other stations have a reading.
Our NavCan observer forgot to code RETS (recent thunderstorm) into the 13Z ob.
ReplyDeleteMETAR CYWG 251300Z 23004KT 12SM -SHRA FEW006 SCT018 BKN043 BKN078
BKN110 15/14 A2988 RERA RMK SF1SC2SC2AC1AC1 CB EMBD DIST E SLP122
DENSITY ALT 900FT=
SPECI CYWG 251254Z 26004KT 210V280 12SM -TSRA FEW006 SCT025 BKN043
BKN100 15/14 A2988 RMK SF2SC2SC2AC1 CB EMBD E MOVG ESE VIS NE-S 6
SLP121 DENSITY ALT 1000FT=
It only occurred between the hours, so anyone looking at the hourly data won't see today's thunderstorm. EC observers may have been overpaid, but at least they knew how to report the weather.
So, Winnipeg is currently under a Tornado Watch. It says in the description that "These types of tornadoes form out of weak thunderstorms and are usually not as destructive as their severe thunderstorm cousin." But the warning also says "Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early this evening." I didn't think there was any severe threat today, so is that just something they include with any Tornado Watch alert?
ReplyDeleteReference Nav Canada WX Observer(s) at CYWG - It's not so much a matter of pay but more a matter of actual 'interest' in doing the job well. The FSS staff at the Wpg FIC are paid well. Having worked for Nav Canada and now retired, I can say they are a good employer but not all employees are as keen on going that extra mile in their efforts in doing their jobs. Most will do the minimum and meet the job description simply because in some cases the expression "No good deed will go unpunished". There is some peer pressure not to excel or stand out within the ATS environment.
ReplyDeletePersonally, I think you could pay a WX observer 100K a year and you'd still get garbage. An example is the CARS weather reporting system. It's got better but in the 80s it was a shamble. Anyway, 'nuf said. I'm so bloody happy to be retired and a trillion miles away from all the office politics and inter agency squabbles associated with ATC/ATS/AIS/Nav Canada/Transport Canada and the entire Canadian Aviation System. It's too bad we don't have a government and a minister that can show true international leadership in this vital area of Canadian Transportation.
Evan...
ReplyDeleteYes, the reference to severe thunderstorm is based on the inclusion of a tornado watch. By definition, a thunderstorm that produces a tornado is considered severe, even if weak.
Personally, I don't agree with tornado watches being issued for cold core funnel situations. Cold core funnels that may touch down briefly as weak short lived tornadoes are a vastly different phenomena than the significantly more dangerous supercell tornadoes that can be long tracked and pose a much greater risk to life and property. Yet, the alert is the same in both cases.. "Tornado watch". This ominous flag is what most media and general public tune in on, and they don't distinguish between cold core and supercell tornado cases, even though the actual text of the watches clearly spells out the difference. Most people don't know the difference. They just hear "tornado watch" which conjures images of violent F4 tornadoes sweeping through the landscape. So in cold core situations, it overstates the risk. It's like issuing a blizzard watch for the possibility of a 30 minute snow squall. More often than not, these turn out to be false alarms in cold core cases, which further reduces the credibility and effectiveness of tornado watches if and when they're required for the true supercell cases.
Many people feel that cold core funnel situations would be best handled by a different alert message.. such as "cold core funnel advisories" which would leave the "tornado watch" for the true supercell tornado situations.
Hi Rob:
ReplyDeleteI agree. It seems like there are several of these cold core funnel tornado watches/warnings all over the prairies each summer. They are creating a "boy who cried wolf" situation, wherein people are beginning to not take them seriously anymore.
>> anonymous said.. Hey, Rob, Do you happen to know what the high temperature was on July 3? Hottest high of the year so far and I'm curious to know what the official reading was. Environment Canada is still reporting it as Missing while several other stations have a reading.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. unfortunately, the high temperature data is missing for that date. For whatever reason, the syno report has missing data for the high temperature that day. The highest hourly reading at YWG airport on the 3rd was 31.5C at 3 pm, so the max was at least 31.5C. The co-located YWG CS station had a high of 31.3C on the 3rd, while the Forks registered a high of 31.8C. Using 31.5C as the max would be a reasonable estimate.
By the way, I see the climate data online site has a new look.. more of the "common look and feel" of the main weatheroffice website. Personally, I'm not a fan.. much preferred the old layout.
I very much preferred the old layout of the entire EC site Rob. That merry-go-round at the homepage is awfully annoying and just makes it more difficult to get to where I want to go.
ReplyDeleteWhen it comes to the climate data, I preferred the more compact look it had before. Now there's just too much empty space, it's harder to use when looking for data for extended periods of time; one reason being that you can't fit an entire month of data on one screen when you used to be able to.
I also just noticed that the new normals EC posted are not even the 'real' 1981-2010 normals. For Winnipeg, they only used data from 1981 to 2007 for the normals.
They should improve content instead of looks.. why fix something that wasn't a big issue when there are even bigger issues that need adressing (ex: lack of quality control of climate data)
Ruth..
ReplyDeleteI agree with all your comments, especially about the preference of the more compact look of the old site. As you said.. too much space with the new site.
Unfortunately, EC doesn't have much say in the layout of their websites. They have to follow certain guidelines and protocols set out by govt requlators to come up with "common look and feel" websites. That usually means more restrictions in what they can display and the format they can display the data in..
It sure was nice to have that short break from below normal weather in June through mid July but we are now back to normal 2013 weather.
ReplyDeleteRob, any hopes of summer returning here in the next couple of weeks?
Thanks for the explanation, Rob.
ReplyDeleteGFS is optimistic with the forecasted high temperatures and 850 mb temperatures a week from now. Do you think its outlook is reasonable?
Well, no signs of sustained summer heat here in southern MB for the next week or so. I was really hoping for a return to normal weather early next week, but looks like another reinforcing shot of cooler air coming in behind a system later Monday. CPC outlooks indicate generally below normal temps likely for the next 1-2 weeks. That doesn't mean we won't have some warm days in there.. but overall looks below normal for the next little while. I know.. it sucks.. way too early for this type of cool weather. Feels like September out there today.. and it's even worse to our east. Only 13C in Kenora this afternoon under cloudy skies and a ridiculously cold +9C with rain in Thunder Bay!
ReplyDeleteThat screwy CBC forecast issue is back. It makes me very curious about how their system is configured. JS spoke about his WSI weather software a tech conference last fall, which I missed.
ReplyDeleteA record low at YWG airport this morning, although I'm a little confused by what the actual lowest reading will be. The YWG syno lists a minimum of 5.6C for today, although at 6 am, the temperature reading was shown as 5.4C. The XWG CS site had a low of +5.3C. Whatever the case, all of these readings are lower than the previous record low for July 27th of 5.8C in 1978.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob
ReplyDeleteDoes it still look like rain this evening. I see some in the south west portion of the province but it looks like it might go north of us. Is their more behind that?
Daryl.. Yes,I think we'll still be seeing some rain moving into Winnipeg this evening as that band to our west moves east. The leading batch looks like it will be moving toward the northwest of us but the trailing edge should get us by mid evening or so
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeletei know this is hard to predict, woukd you say august will warm up at alll? Thanks
Anonymous... unfortunately doesn't look like any major warm-up over the next week or two over southern Manitoba. CPC discussion indicates persistence of a long wave trough over eastern North America maintaining generally below normal temperatures from the eastern Prairies through the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Summer like weather will be mainly confined over BC for the next little while, especially the Okanagan. Hopefully we can get a return of some hot weather here by mid August, but the way this year is going, I'm not holding my breath. Overall it's been a disappointing year weather wise for us.. at least for those of us who enjoy warm weather.
ReplyDeleteBC has been the place to be this summer. They've had an amazing July out there, sunniest ever with no measurable rain all month in Vancouver and Victoria. Today will be the 14th straight day over 30C in Osoyoos, with 24 days in July over 30c, and an average high of 33c. Now that is summer weather! (should be a great year for Okonagan wineries..)
ReplyDeleteGuess we can safely say that's one record that won't be beat (driest month for Vancouver).
ReplyDeleteRob are we ever going to get another chance at thunderstorms, I am hoping for something fairly big in the coming weeks. Anything at all?
ReplyDeleteMike,
ReplyDeleteThere does not seem to be any big thunderstorm outbreak in the near future. In Winnipeg July is the month where we get the most storms.
Mike..
ReplyDeleteWith a cooler than normal pattern expected into mid August, our chances for severe thunderstorms grows increasingly slim. We certainly can still see some thunderstorms through August, but our best chances for severe tstorms are pretty much over by mid August. As anonymous noted, July is our prime month.
Rob, How about the ones in september 23rd of 2007 & september 10 of 2009, along with the ones in august 20 of 2010 and the august 18th of 2011. Those were all examples of severe weather days, the only thing is that it is hard to tell by year. So we will just have to wait and see. I plan on moving to florida during the summer season for storms and come back here in winter and enjoy the winter like weather of the north. This is what I would at least like to see here in the coming years.... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WnsxAXowu3g&feature=youtu.be
ReplyDeleteMike... I didn't mean to imply that we never get severe storms after mid August, it's just that the likelihood starts diminishing rapidly, mainly because low level moisture becomes less rich, sun angle gets lower (reduced solar insolation) and storm track starts retreating south. But yes, the chances for severe tstorms into September are not zero.
ReplyDeleteJuly will end up with an average monthly temperature of around 18.8C at YWG airport, almost 1C below the 1981-2010 normal of 19.7C. The month was split in half with a warm first half, followed by a cool second half. This past July was a full 3.5C cooler than July 2012 which averaged a very warm 22.3C. Average high this year was 25C compared to 29C last year. Only three 30C days this year compared to 14 last July. Rainfall this year was 82 mm which was very close to normal (79.5 mm) most of which fell in the cooler second half of the month.
ReplyDeleteRob, are there any signs or indications that we may see some summer weather again this year?
ReplyDeleteNo signs of sustained summer heat over us for the first half of August, although we should have some days that are normal (25 ish) No idea what will happen in the second half of August into September. Long range guidance after 2 weeks shows very little skill if any. Can only hope that the pattern flips and we get an extended late summer. It should be noted though that many people don't mind the weather we're having... comfortable days in the low 20s, cool nights, low humidity, breezy. No AC required since mid July. Pool and beach lovers aren't happy, but I'm sure many people don't miss the usual mid summer heat and humidity.
ReplyDeleteJuly was really a tale of two seasons.. the average over the first half of the month (through the 15th) was 21.4C, almost 2C above normal for July. The average from the 16-31st was a late August-like 16.4C, over 3C below normal and a full 5C cooler than the first half of the month.
ReplyDeleteAugust can still get pretty hot, so here's hoping for a late-summer heatwave. I won't hold my breath though. With a few blips along the way, "below normal" has seemed to be the main story of 2013's seasons.
ReplyDeleteI know not everyone loves the heat, but for me the winters are too long and cold in this region to warrant autumn arriving in July. We need a nice, baking summer to make up for it.
Evan.. I'm with you. I have no problem with 2-3 months of hot weather. But this year, we just can't seem to sustain any prolonged stretch of above normal temperatures. Such a contrast to 2012 which was almost continuously above normal.
ReplyDeleteForecast in the Winnipeg Free Press (from the Weather Network) trying really hard to pretend we're still having hot and humid weather. Forecast high 21. Humidex 23. I think we can drop the humidex values for the next little while. Don't understand why they continue to quote humidex values when it's a non issue.
ReplyDeleteIt comes down to basic programming. If it was up to me, I would only display humidex values if 1) they were 30 or over, 2) dewpoints were 15C or higher and 3) humidex differed from the air temperature by at least 3C. Otherwise, the humidex is insignificant and should not be quoted.
Hi Rob. I am back in Winnipeg (for the 3rd time). My weather station is now online, reporting out of Edgeland (Tuxedo).
ReplyDeleteDan
Hey Dan.. Welcome back to Winnipeg! Good to have you back onboard!
ReplyDeleteYikes.. YWG airport taking a dive tonight.. already down to 7C as of midnight. Temps a good 5C warmer elsewhere in the city, including 12C at my site.
ReplyDeleteLooking for some heat? Head to the Yukon! 30C today in Dawson, 27C in Whitehorse.
ReplyDeleteRob, given we're in this prolonged period of below normal temps,it would feel a lot better if we could have more sun than clouds. It seems every day is identical; we start off sunny and by 11:00a.m. it's at least 50% clouds. Do you see any days ahead that might be largely sunny? Thanks, Mark
ReplyDeleteMark... Yeah, the cool weather doesn't lend itself to long stretches of sunny cloud free skies. We either get convective clouds developing by midday due to cool air aloft, or we see increasing clouds from systems passing through every few days. Its like a summer in Edmonton!
ReplyDeleteToday is actually looking quite nice with lots of sun, although we'll still see some cumulus clouds developing today. although not as extensive as yesterday. Tomorrow will see increasing clouds ahead of a system tracking into the Dakotas with a chance of showers by late afternoon. Monday looks partly sunny, with a chance if afternoon showers. So overall, today is looking like the sunniest day of the holiday weekend.
We need to get into a warm pattern with an upper ridge over us to give us sustained sunny days. Unfortunately that doesn't look likely over the first half of August as the upper ridge persists out west.
Apparently severe t-storms in southwestern Manitoba tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteRob would you say that a Hudson Bay vortex is responsible for the weather we've been experiencing lately and for this upcoming week?
ReplyDeleteYes, a blocking pattern with a stubborn Hudson Bay vortex/Great Lakes trough combined with a persistent upper ridge/blocking high over BC/Yukon is helping to maintain a NW flow of cooler than normal temperatures over the eastern Prairies into Ontario. That is why we just haven't been able to warm up over the past 2 weeks.. and through this upcoming week as well. Looks like we're in for another shot of cool fall like air for Tue-Wed followed by another shot of cool air Friday. (that forecast high of 23C Friday looks optimistic.. more like mid teens) Long range guidance is suggesting that Hudson Bay vortex will be pulling off over the weekend into early next week.. with a moderating trend over us that will hopefully bring a more sustained period of normal temperatures next week.
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, the warm weather is confined out west, and even far northwest where temperatures peaked at 31.7C yesterday on the shore of the Arctic Ocean at Old Crow YT and 30.9C at Inuvik NWT.
Shaw server issues... Rob's Obs website currently n/a
ReplyDeleteI guess the Old Farmers' Almanac was bang on right for this summer. They predicted last year that the hottest periods would be "in late June and early July". I usually don't put much stock in their forecasts though.
ReplyDeleteI see that 26 and 27 degree forecast for next weekend. I know it's a long way out but I'm clinging to hope!
ReplyDeleteGorgeous!
ReplyDeleteCheck this link for an alternate self updating radar image. Unlike Brad's excellent site, it'll work with all browsers. Just change the three radar site letters to view other locations.
ReplyDeletehttp://saratoga-weather.org/ec-radar.php?lang=en&site=XWL