Sunday, June 09, 2013

More unsettled weather Monday then a drier, warmer week ahead..

Showers and scattered thunderstorms moved across southern Manitoba today as a trough of low pressure from Saskatchewan pushed across the region. This activity is expected to taper off this evening, however another batch of showers and thunderstorms over southern Saskatchewan is forecast to spread into southwest MB overnight into early Monday, pushing into the Interlake regions during the day Monday. Locally heavy downpours are possible with this next wave of precipitation with 10-20 mm possible in some areas. The bulk of the activity is expected mainly west and north of Winnipeg, but the city could also see some showers Monday morning through early afternoon along with a chance of a thunderstorm.

Once that system clears out Monday evening, the rest of the week is looking great.. with generally sunny skies and warm temperatures in the mid to upper 20s through at least Thursday and possibly into Friday before the next threat of showers by the end of the week. Slowly but surely.. it's beginning to feel a little more summer-like in southern Manitoba.    

52 comments:

  1. Rob, check out the obs in Dauphin at 7 pm:

    http://weather.gc.ca/trends_table/pages/ydn_metric_e.html

    Says 'squalls'. Never seen that as an obs before. Does that just mean strong winds? What does it mean exactly?

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  2. Been watching a stationary cell in the vicinity of Portage L P Southport airport for the last couple of hours. Seems to be finally breaking up.

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  3. The same cell that was mentioned by Anonymous is now our severe warned storm of the season!

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  4. Anonymous...

    Re: Dauphin squall

    Yes, very unusual obs, especially for an automated station. In this case, it was a legitimate obs as "squall" refers to a sudden increase in wind speed and gust usually associated with a thunderstorm outflow, which was the case with Dauphin at 7 pm (gusting to 42 knots -almost 80 kmh) with a thunderstorm approaching. Auto station must be programmed to report a sudden increase in wind speed as a squall if lightning is detected nearby.

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  5. Yeah, that cell southwest of Portage LP has been nearly stationary or back building for over an hour. Heavy rain over 50 mm is the biggest concern.

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  6. Meant to include a "first" there...oh well.

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  7. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Winnipeg/RRV....possible severe storms with heavy downpours and hail later this afternoon and evening. We'll see what happens.

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  8. Nice looking cell just crossed Lake Manitoba moving towards Winnipeg. Our first thunderstorm of the year could also be our first severe one if it holds together.

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  9. @WeatherInThePeg: "Storm has become outflow dominant; strong winds will push through #Winnipeg shortly, but tornado risk is significantly reduced. #MBstorm"

    http://www.twitter.com/WeatherInThePeg/status/344200534149971968

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  10. Mammatus to my east --south central.

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  11. Mammatus to my east ---south central wpg. Here we go...

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  12. Sorry for the double post. We had quarter and larger-sized hail earlier, falling in the emerging sunlight--card was full so no picture to post unfortunately--it was beautiful though I'm sure someone driving a ragtop was having a bad day out there with reports of "ice-chunks" falling. Good to feel that storm energy again:)

    Love the site Rob, keep up the good work!

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  13. It was a very interesting day today, quite frankly for me I had seen my very first rotating wall cloud in the Silver heights area. It passed right over my house, first tornado warned storm as well. Just waiting to see my first tornado, cant wait...

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  14. Loonie-golfball-sized stones fell around St Anne's @ Fermor. Quite the first thunderstorm of the season

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  15. is there a radar loop for the track and intensity of Monday's "Hail Storm" available anywhere?

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  16. Anonymous..

    Click on the radar viewer from A Weather Moment site, and select 24. hr accumulation for the radar product. That will give a pretty good idea of storm tracks from yesterday,

    http://aweathermoment.tumblr.com/radar-viewer

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  17. JS is already forecasting for portions of a day on Saturday.

    "Expect rain Friday night into Saturday morning and some morning showers on Saturday. We get a break on Saturday, then a chance for some rain in the evening."

    Didn't he learn his lesson last week, being the last holdout for showers over Winnipeg on Saturday, still forecasting that on Thursday?!

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  18. Just because there's rain in the forecast for Saturday doesn't mean it wont happen...
    Would you be happier if he forecasts sunshine for Saturday but then it ends up being rainy?

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  19. The point is, last week he got burned on a 2-day forecast, for the entire forecast day. Less than a week later he has a 4 day forecast which divides the day into morning (showers), afternoon (no precip), and evening (rain), as though he has no doubt about the timing or accuracy of the model. Typically a forecaster would not commit to a blow-by-blow forecast 4-days out, because the models case easily shift 1/2 day or several hundred km by that time.

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  20. Not too sure about that storm potential Friday. Things have shifted southwards in some of the models, quite typical. Any thoughts?

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  21. Saturday's forecast has changed. Looks like Winnipeg will be in the dry slot much of the day.

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  22. Just a comment, but I guess Monday, June 10th was our official first thunderstorm of the year, the 2nd latest one in the year in 60 years. It was also 289 days (over 3 quarters of a year) between the last storm of last year and the first storm of this year, which is the longest we've been without a storm in 60 years (previous record was 287 days in 1958).

    Rob can you not view past thunderstorm observations anymore on EC?

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  23. Anon, EC hourly data has an incredible amount of mising data. I encourage you to use wunderground instead.. Here's a link showing the June 10 storm last Monday... and the good thing about wunderground is that it includes observations in between hourly obs. So although the storm was in between hourly obs, it is still recorded.

    http://english.wunderground.com/history/airport/CYWG/2013/6/10/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

    It's unfortunate that we have to go south of the border to get data from our own backyard.

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  24. Looks like the Woodlands radar is down and out once again.

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  25. Missing EC data? No, can't be.

    I recently did a data compilation/analysis for a climate study, using 4 EC stations. Two of them were missing the 31st day day of every longer month (Jan, March, May...), for several years in a row. Some EC programmer didn't account for a 31-day month. So the climate stats for year after year were comprimised with missing data. Most frustrating.

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  26. Rob, what kind of feature is passing over later today? I've seen every interpretation from a warm front, cold front, upper cold front, to just a trough with no front defined.

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  27. The FOCN45 discussion this morning says it all:

    "IN SRN MB...EARLY MORNING AMDAR OUT OF WINNIPEG SHOWING CAPPED ENVIRONMENT.SFC TROF ASSOCIATED WITH SK LOW SWINGS THRU SRN MB THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS HAS RECENTLY BEEN THE CASE, BEST SHEAR AND CAPE REMAIN SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER..."

    This seems to be the pattern of us. All the action out west, then south of the border, always! This has been happening long term enough that you would think theres a good idea of why its happening. Any insights Rob as to why this has been such a consistent pattern for us, not just this year but last year and possibly the year before as well? I know it has to do with the jet stream and just the way its flowing, but what are the teleconnections making it happen?

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  28. Interesting. Our CBC Father's Day forecast is already pre-made, no mention of today or Saturday.

    Weather Journal for Father's Day

    The cloud sticks around into Father's day but I'm expecting the rain to hold off until the afternoon. Showers re-appear Sunday afternoon with a slightly cooler high of 21 degrees. Monday we return to a mix of sun and cloud with temps climbing to the mid 20s again by Tuesday and Wednesday.

    Wind Forecast for Winnipeg

    Sunday: SW @ 10 in the morning. WNW @ 30/40 in the afternoon.
    Monday: NW @ 25/30 in the morning. NW @ 15/20 in the afternoon.

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  29. Well, certainly not likely we'll see anything this evening here in Winnipeg but a slight chance of a shower or passing weak thundershower like we just did in the last 45 minutes. No real severe weather threat for RRV and points east tonight. The threat appears to be only in SW MB where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is currently in effect.

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  30. Any chance we'll get something tonight in Winnipeg (thunderstorm)? I miss the old days when we used to get storms more often than this.

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  31. It's only mid-June. We already had a hail storm resulting in over 1000 hail damage claims (my car is proof). Patience.

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  32. It's just the frequency that is off lately. Lately, it's been big storm events here and there with little in between due to frequent busts.

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  33. What does tomorrow look like? Taking the kids to the ex...

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  34. srm..

    Tomorrow not looking as nice as today. Looks cloudier and cooler with a few showers around, which is what they saw in southern SK today. Not a total washout, but not totally dry either. It's the Ex after all.. ;)

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  35. Back in town after a fishing trip at Point Du Bois. Decent weather, but the fishing was slow due to abnormally cold waters for this time of year..a good 2 weeks behind normal. Winnipeg River water temperature was a chilly 12C, when it should be around 18C at this time of year. Ice was out of the river around mid May, when it should have been out by the third week of April. Another causality of our abnormally long winter this year..

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  36. Rob, what does the storm threat look like for this coming week? Any severe weather potential or will it be mainly a warm dry week?

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  37. Well, it was a nice day today but it certainly isn't so nice now. Cooled off quite a bit with that strong NW breeze and I see storm cells are bypassing Winnipeg to the south and north once again....not a surprise. Looks like that's the way it's gonna be again this year.

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  38. Moderate downpour in south of Winnipeg. Very isolated according to the Woodlands radar. Single rain cloud in a whole southern MB.

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  39. A nicer day out there than we thought yesterday.. some bonus sunshine through midday here in Winnipeg before convective clouds build up in the afternoon with some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms popping up.

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  40. Rob, what does the thunderstorm threat look like this week? any severe weather potential at some point during the week?

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  41. Rob do you know what the high and low temperature and precip amount was at the airport on June 9? Unfortunately, it looks like that day is missing in the data (always seems to be that odd day every month that is missing it's annoying).. was wondering if you knew what the data was somehow.

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  42. Anonymous..

    June 9 stats at YWG airport..

    Hi: 19.9C
    Low: 13.1C
    Rain: 0.5 mm

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  43. >>Anonymous said.. Rob, what does the thunderstorm threat look like this week? any severe weather potential at some point during the week?

    Friday looks interesting.. we may see some warm frontal thunderstorms with heavy rain and possible hail.. but that's still a long ways out. Just a chance at this point..

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  44. Rob, what's the last month that was above average in temperature? I'm assuming June will be a bit below average...

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  45. No, June will be a bit above average!

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  46. i've noticed that models are trending towards some above normal summerlike temps next week into early July.

    Rob, what are your thoughts on this? May we finally get some real summerlike weather in our area next week?

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  47. Models showing a very active pattern setting up late this week. Still some time for things to change but 2,000 to 3,000 J/KG of instability is being shown on some of the models. The latest runs of the GFS are showing a potential mult-day event with a boundary stalling out in southern Manitoba. Thursday and Friday look to have the most potential at this point. This may also leak into the weekend as some models are showing an upper low hanging around.

    Lots of time for things to change, of course. If things continue to look as good come Wednesday, then we can REALLY start to get excited. At least there appears to be an appreciable convective event or two later this week.

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  48. Wow apparently 990.6 mm of rain recorded at Kamloops, BC yesterday. Another example why more vigorous quality control is needed.

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  49. Rob, what's the latest on the system that is set to affect us for Thursday to the Sunday/Monday timeframe? Any Severe weather for winnipeg and the red river valley? Any Thunderstorm complexes?

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  50. That Kamloops precip was actually flagged as an error in the live QA process. However I guess the website ignores the QA flag.

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  51. Mike et al..

    Main convective action later today into tonight will be over southern AB and southern SK (again) before weakening complex pushes into southwest MB Thursday. Most models agree that we'll likely see a band of showers and thunderstorms pushing through RRV (including YWG) Thursday night with locally heavy rainfall amounts of 20-30 mm.. but dynamics don't look particularly impressive over us for outbreak of severe storms. Still, CAPE values may be high enough that we could see some strong to isolated severe storms late Thursday into Thursday night. Severe threat shifts over SE MB and south of the US border later Friday.

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  52. city of wpg has 2 new rainfall maps here:
    http://www.winnipeg.ca/waterandwaste/drainageflooding/rainfallReports/default.stm

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