Saturday, September 08, 2012
Blustery Saturday to give way to pleasant Sunday
It was a blustery start to the weekend over the Red River valley with strong northerly winds gusting over 70 km/h at times along with mainly cloudy skies and temperatures in the upper teens (a peak gust of 80 km/h recorded at the Brady landfill weather station) The winds were associated with a strong push of cool air from northern Manitoba flooding southward. Winds will be diminishing this evening becoming light overnight along with clearing skies that will allow temperatures to drop into the single digits over much of southern MB, including Winnipeg where a low of +4C is forecast. After a chilly start, Sunday will be a much more pleasant day with bright sunny skies, lighter winds and afternoon temperatures rebounding into the low 20s. Conditions will be even warmer Monday as gusty south winds to 50 km/h push in a warm airmass with temperatures rising into the upper 20s along with sunny skies.
Posted by rob at 4:03 PM
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Frosty morning outside of Winnipeg especially to our south and east. Down to -2c at Dugald, -1C at Steinbach and Beausejour, 0C in Emerson and Carman. A low of +2c in Winnipeg, spared from frost by a light southerly wind that came up this morning. Nice day ahead with sunny clear skies and temps back into the 20s this afternoon.ReplyDelete
RGEM again showing cool bias in a warm southerly for Monday with a high of only 25C forecast for Winnipeg, while NAM is predicting a high of 31C. Even conservative Euro is giving us 27C. 850 temps rise into the low 20s, which would support highs around 30C at this time of year.ReplyDelete
Forecast south winds of 20 km/h Monday appear too light as well.. good southerly gradient plus funnelling up the valley will likely give Winnipeg south winds of 30 km/h with gusts to 50 at times.
Ignore that phantom rainfall of 1.0 mm from YWG airport yesterday. There was no rain, just some strong northerly winds shaking the precip pan and fooling it that rain was falling. In reality, we have had only 3 days of measurable rain at YWG airport since August 16th, namely Aug 25 (0.5 mm), Sep 6 (1.0 mm), Sep 7 (0.5 mm) totalling only 2 mm in that time. Getting pretty dry out there.ReplyDelete
Will someone eliminate that 1 mm from the data? Or will we have to suffer and roll our eyes with having this stuck permanently?ReplyDelete
It will likely stay in the official record. As I mentioned earlier, there is minimal QC being done with EC climate data, just some basic automated QC that often lets questionable data through. Also, QC is no longer done regionally where this type of data could have been suppressed. Generally, these slight amounts don't really make much of a difference in overall monthly totals, unless of course it's very dry then these false readings can give an inaccurate picture of the true dryness.ReplyDelete
Your station should become the official station for rainfall in Winnipeg as well Rob! Seems as though backyard stations are more accurate and trustworthy these days than the official stations we use from EC. (Quite sad)ReplyDelete
I see the forecast for Winnipeg tomorrow has been revised upwards to 29C from GEM's 26C. I think that's a good call given GEM's recent cool bias especially in warm southerly flows. NAM now going with a high of 33C for Winnipeg Monday which seems a bit high, but is possible if our southerly valley wind can shift into the SW by late afternoon. Overall though, I think Winnipeg has a good shot of hitting 30C Monday, which would be our 22nd time this year that we hit 30C or more.ReplyDelete
I see Alberta and BC getting spoiled with more severe storms today. Will we get a chance for some storms sometime this week as this pattern moves east?ReplyDelete
Rob any thoughts as to why it's been so dry here all summer?ReplyDelete
The big severe weather outbreak in the Northeast US yesterday affected Southern Quebec...ReplyDelete
An F0 was reported in Drumondville (with wind gusts up to 97km/h) and High Falls (north of Gatineau) recorded 97 mm of rain.
Just to give you an idea, Winnipeg's all-time daily rainfall was 83.8 mm.
>> Anonymous said...Rob any thoughts as to why it's been so dry here all summer?ReplyDelete
Southern MB has been on the northern periphery of the severe drought that has been affecting the US this year. The main storm track this summer has been mainly across southern AB/SK into central Manitoba where precip has been above normal this summer, with most storms bypassing southern MB. In addition, the severe drought in the US has depleted surface moisture levels to our south, which is an important moisture source to drive summertime convection for us. This leads to a "drought begets drought" situation where it becomes increasingly difficult to generate convective precipitation when surface moisture levels are so low. Finally, just plain bad luck.. there have been some locally heavy rainfalls at times over southern MB this summer but they've been more isolated than widespread.
So when there's a drought begets drought situation giving perpetual drought conditions, in essence positive feedback, what could break that pattern and make things more normal to wet again if it’s too dry to ever generate any convection?ReplyDelete
The Extended Forecast image on your Rob's Obs page shows a high of 23C for today. Odd.ReplyDelete
Is there a link between the dry summer and the fact that frost was recorded somewhat earlier than normal this fall?
@Anon - That image is from CBC. They've been having lots of problems lately with the short-range forecasts being off by 5-9C. It also shows 26C for Tuesday which isn't very likely either, and the actuals for Winnipeg are often wrong too. So I suspect their system is serving up bad/old data.ReplyDelete
On CBC radio they often don't use their own numbers, so I wouldn't pay too much attention to it.
There hasn't been any frost in Winnipeg. We are still frost free for Winnipeg. The other day it went down to 2C.ReplyDelete
Hi Rob - my colleague and I are doing a project for school, and we were wondering if you had some information we could use.ReplyDelete
We're looking for precipitation averages in Winnipeg for May, June, July, and August - as well as statistics about rain in Winnipeg from 2009 on. Thank you! Lauren
An obviously misinformed DJ on BobFM was just commenting on how today was much warmer than expected.. "it was only supposed to be 20 today." Uh, you may want to check that forecast again, or get a new weather source!ReplyDelete
Lots of 30C readings south and west of Winnipeg today.. but temps stuck at 29C in Winnipeg as we stay with a gusty south valley wind. Didn't quite make that 30c mark here.. but a nice breezy warm day for September!ReplyDelete
Andy.. I don't have any stats on dry summers and early frosts, but it's an interesting theory. It's certainly possible that dry soil conditions would radiate energy more efficiently than moist soil conditions, making it easier for temperatures to drop and frost to form. But as I said, I 'm not aware of any studies that have looked at that correlation.ReplyDelete
Lauren.. You can get all that climate information from EC's online climate website. Here's a link for Winnipeg data.. http://climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=XX&StationID=47407&Month=9&Day=9&Year=2012. Just click on previous month or year to get data back to 2009.ReplyDelete
On the left hand menu, click on "Climate normals and averages" and type in Winnipeg to get precip and temperature averages for any month of the year. Hope that helps.
>>Anonymous said...So when there's a drought begets drought situation giving perpetual drought conditions, in essence positive feedback, what could break that pattern and make things more normal to wet again if it’s too dry to ever generate any convection?ReplyDelete
You'd have to get into a pattern that would bring more synoptic scale storms and general rainfall, which doesn't rely as much on surface moisture as the convection process does. With a more unsettled stormy pattern, that would bring soil moisture levels back up to aid in convective initiation.
A high of 29.3C at Winnipeg airport today.. just shy of our 22nd 30C reading of the year. Lots of 30+C temps to our southwest as close as Starbuck and La Salle, with an official maximum of 31.7C at Cypress River, south of Carberry.ReplyDelete
Oh.. and another phantom 1.0 mm of rain registered at YWG airport today.
At this rate this will be the September with the most imaginary raindrops on record.ReplyDelete
Another tornado confirmed by EC (F2) in Eastern Ontario this time.ReplyDelete
Now 2 tornadoes have been registered north of the border on Saturday which is the same amount they had in the US.
3rd consecutive year that NFLD gets hit with hurricane.. Don't think that's ever happenedReplyDelete
1 mm here and there certainly does affect climate records (days with precip stats, and more). After having been in the industry at the ground level and above for well over a decade now, I'd advise any student doing climate studies to be VERY CAREFUL with any station data they use. Best to rely on tree rings, sea levels, etc., things unaffected by poor maintenance, quality control, changes in instrumentation types and placement, etc, etc, etc, etc, etc.ReplyDelete
Peak gust of 73 kt (132 km/h) at St John's this morning from Leslie! Looks like lots of trees down, damaged buildings, power outages.. a wild morning on the rock!ReplyDelete
Rob-Funny about the BobFM DJ. The media has been especially bad lately for some unknown reason. I just watched the CTV news forecast, and she said we're NOT expecting any showers for Winnipeg today! Meanhwhile it's been showering off and on all morning, now on again with more coming. And yesterday the CBC John Sauder website forecast 26C for today, likely at least 6C off on a 1-day forecast! What's going on? I wonder.ReplyDelete
Is there a cold front going through today Rob? Didn't it already pass yesterday?ReplyDelete
Neat cloud on the southeast of Riding Mountain from this wind. We've got mountains?!ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. yes, cold front passed through yesterday.. but today we have the core of the coolest air and strongest winds aloft moving through southern MB, hence the windier and cooler conditions than yesterday.ReplyDelete
Nice warmup for the end of the week, and then a major cooldown for Sunday into next week with high temps only in the low to mid teens likely.
Still no significant rain on the horizon.. we're getting awfully dry with only 2 mm of rain over the past 4 weeks. Sure could use some moisture before we head into freeze-up, otherwise soil moisture levels will be an increasing concern for next year's growing season.
Thanks Rob. Yes I see on the wind warning that EC states the cold front went through yesterday. But another source keeps stating that the front is passing today. Time to stop looking at the other source.ReplyDelete
Note that Red Flag Warnings are in effect across all of northern ND right to the border. Very dry conditions today with strong winds resulting in criticial fire weather indices, also applicable over southern MB today. Not a good day for stubble burning!ReplyDelete
For Wednesday, September 12, 2012, due to strong forecasted wind conditions, daytime crop residue burning is NOT AUTHORIZED, in any municipality of the RED RIVER/SOUTHEAST ZONE.ReplyDelete
For Wednesday, September 12, 2012, due to strong forecasted wind conditions, daytime crop residue burning is NOT AUTHORIZED, in any municipality of the SOUTHWEST, the NORTHWEST and the WESTLAKE/INTERLAKE ZONES.
Not a great day on the water either. Gale warnings on every major body of water this morning...Winds near 50Knots and the Lake near Gimli (probably nearer to Grand beach) reported 7.5ft waves at 10am and 9.5 ft near midnite in the Northern basin. Couldn't find this on EC but NOAA has it at.ReplyDelete
EC has similar info for Lake Winnipeg atReplyDelete
"45144" is Lake Winnipeg North Basin
Wind Warning ended.ReplyDelete
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