Wednesday, June 20, 2012
Unsettled pattern coming to an end... brighter drier weather ahead..
The unsettled weather of the past two weeks will finally be giving way to a sunnier and drier pattern by Friday into the weekend, offering some much needed time to dry out from the recent damp and dreary weather. Winnipeg has not seen more than 2 rainfree days in a row since June 4-6th, with frequent showers and occasional thunderstorms dumping over 50 mm of rain in the past 2 weeks at Winnipeg airport, and over 70 mm at my Charleswood site. An upper ridge of high pressure is forecast to build over the Prairies over the weekend into next week which will finally take a stubborn storm track north of the southern Prairies, and also allow warmer air to push into our region. With increasing sunshine, temperatures should finally rebound back into the mid 20s over the weekend, with above normal temperatures possible next week.
Posted by rob at 12:46 PM
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This month really shows that lots of 'days with rain' does not equal above normal precipitation. The 60-70 mm of rain recorded so far (if the YWG total is correct because it seems somewhat low) is simply on pace for normal June precipitation. In fact, as that pattern change occurs and we tap a NW flow aloft by later this week, the opportunities for additional rain may not be great.. so its not inconceivable that some areas would receive below average rainfall this month.ReplyDelete
Seems to be a common pattern in recent years - where we experience 'unsettled' conditions, but barely reach average precipitation. We've so far been very lucky in avoiding the extreme precipitation events experienced by NW Ontario/ extreme SE Manitoba associated with stalled fronts and LLJ (like what is happening over northern Minnesota now), and those in SW Manitoba/ Riding Mtn associated with cold lows and upsloping. The 'Winnipeg/RRV bubble'?
A bit of rainshowers to the west of the city coming in.ReplyDelete
Global's news chopper is already worth it. You could see the area of rain coming in from the west.ReplyDelete
Google DULUTH FLOOD.ReplyDelete
Amazing video & photos! Glad this system spared us in Winnipeg!
Just got dumped on in Altona. Slow moving thunderstorm pushed through and flooded numerous streets. Downtown near the mall has been closed for now.ReplyDelete
Another 4 mm in this evening's downpour.. our 12th day of measurable rain the past 14 days. As Daniel noted, rainfall amounts haven't been that heavy (thank goodness) making these last two weeks more of a nuisance than a more serious problem, at least in the Winnipeg/RRV area. Regardless, it will be nice to get a break from these daily doses of rain showers, and get a little more prolonged sunshine.ReplyDelete
Thank goodness all that rain has been upstream so to speak. Tonights Rainbow and those retreating clouds in the south east are, wishfully, a better omen than "red clouds at nite"ReplyDelete
The heat wave continues in the East...ReplyDelete
Ottawa recorded 35.0C today which gives the nation capital the warmest temperature of 2012 in Canada so far.
St Catharines, Ontario (Niagara region) and Huntingdon, Quebec (at the border with New York, usually a warmspot) both reported a humidex of 44C, the highest reading for the year.
Montreal is also sitting on a 8 days streak without any rain. It is unusual to go more than a week without t-storms in the summer in Eastern Canada.
I was just looking over some of reed timmer's tweets and noticed that he and his gang are set to come norh of the border in AB and SK this weekend and early next to chase. It seems like a major severe weather event possible in those areas this weekend and early next week.
Could there a potential severe weather threat here in Southern MB as well sometime next week?
I posted several funnel/possible Tornado pictures from Wed evening storms west of Grand Forks on the US National Weather Service Facebook Page...
Will need to let some folks go out and see if indeed the circulations touched down....but photos out west and southwest of GF would look like it.
Should have said...ReplyDelete
Search for US National Weather Service Grand Forks FB page.
Seems some of the recent rains have put parts op the upstream locations in record rain 4 since AReplyDelete
in record levels.ReplyDelete
was that the ground conditions for the pipestone event?
Dang new keyboard and big clumsy handsReplyDelete
Quite the storm cells popping up on the radar to the west of the cityReplyDelete
Storm coming in from the north.ReplyDelete
The storms may just brush St. James and Charleswood with the brunt of it more likely downtown.ReplyDelete
Actually, these storms appear to be dying out. So much for a lightning show.ReplyDelete
The tables have turned past couple weeks; what used to be constant hits are now constant misses it seems.ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. In reply to your earlier post regarding severe potential next week.. models show a potential for severe storms over srn AB/SW SK early next week.. depending on how much moisture can feed into the system. SPC does not indicate a severe threat at this time, citing lack of surface moisture influx. The frontal system is forecast to move across southern MB by mid week, albeit in a weaker form. That's what the models are showing now.. we'll have to see if they continue with those trends.ReplyDelete
Heat wave still going on in the East...ReplyDelete
Lows this morning:
Montreal: 24C (humidex of 30)
Ottawa: 22C (humidex of 30)
Toronto: 22C (humidex of 27)
Windsor: 24C (humidex of 30)
Huntingdon, Quebec has already had 4 40C+ humidex days (2 in May, 2 in June) and it's not even July yet.
So does that mean it will cool down behind that frontal system late in the week?
I've also heard rumblings of a hot and humid start to July, Are models indicating anything about that or is it still too early to look that far out?
Although timing is off between models right now, the ridge appears to breakdown late next week. This will bring with it a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Current model guidance seems to show a return to normal to above normal temperatures following this. So, although we may see a day or two of cooler temperatures, it's looking like temperatures will rebound nicely afterwards again. Again, too early to go any further than this really. Also of note is the fact that the CPC has backed off in its predicted above normal temperatures in its short term outlooks; now showing near normal conditions for Southern Manitoba through the first week or two of July.ReplyDelete
South end seems to be in a hot-bed today at 27°C. Other parts of the city struggling around 23 or 24°C.ReplyDelete
What does the thunderstorm potential look like for us here in Southern Manitoba next week?
I know that it appears like some potential tornado days for AB-SK tomorrow through Tuesday. Could a severe storm threat be in the cards for us here in Southern MB late in the week as the ridge breaks down or are the models still going with a weaker frontal system by the time it affects us?
Does anybody here think we'll see 30C temps or higher here in Southern MB next week?ReplyDelete
Perhaps humid as well...
Hi Guys, I thought I should stop by and say hello as I am leaving for Ontario on Tuesday afternoon for 2 weeks. I have always enjoyed your enthusiasm for the weather and your discussions. I'll likely stop by on July 10th for a comment or two as I’ll be back by then.ReplyDelete
I also am wondering if you could give me a detailed weather outlook for as long as a time period as you can for NW Ontario. My question is will there be a good few lightning shows while I’m there, like an MCS or a squall line event on some of the nights? Let me know, thank's.
Apologies for the lack of posts and replies lately... just haven't had the free time recently. Will try to get some new posts up this week. Until then, enjoy the nice summer weather.. Nice to see a warm dry stretch coming up!ReplyDelete
What the thunderstorm potential look like here this week, perhaps severe weather?
I noticed forecasts of 30C and 32C this weekend coming, could that be the beginning of a possible heat wave?
Some good storm chasing video going on right now in west central Sask.
Fort Good Hope, Northwest Territories with a 5th consecutive day of 30C+ temperature. This is now the longest "heat wave" in Canada this year. They were 34.7C yesterday and 34.6C today which is pretty close to Ottawa's Canadian heat record of 35.0C this year.ReplyDelete
Scary it happens at the 66th parallel.
Winnipeg and RRV being robbed of a nice day today with large area of low level cloud and gusty south wind. Hopefully, we can get some clearing by early afternoon, otherwise forget about hitting 30C today.ReplyDelete
Been robbed from storms too. Southwest SK and southeast AB been spoiled past couple days. Constant warnings in those areas.ReplyDelete
Quite honestly, I don't think we'll see thunderstorms out of this here in Winnipeg...and i agree with rob for as long as it stays cloudy we can forget 30C and even if it clears this afternoon probably already too late for 30C....only 22C now and it's already past noonReplyDelete
It seems like it's going to be an active severe weather season in AB-SSK but here in Southern Manitoba it doesn't seem like we will get in to some of that action...example, remember the so called well advertised tornado event that never was on June 9th. Hopefully i'm wrong but it just doesn't seem like our year for storms this year at least for now..any thoughts anybody on this?ReplyDelete
Looks like some nice clearing happening now...the temp at the airport just shot up 4 degrees at this hour to 25.8C, definitely feeling muggy out there this afternoon with dewpoints on the rise as well..30C today i guess could still happenReplyDelete
Miles City, Montana was 111F today! It's a new all-time record for them.ReplyDelete
111F is 43.9C, btw.
Good squall line organizing in Saskatchewan tonite. Bulk of dynamics lifting up to the NE as upper low winds up and the LLJ/ moisture transport occlude off to the SE. Given all the instability, some chance for convection to survive into the RRV between 2-4 am, before upper support collapses. These would be elevated storms with the usual risk of torrential rain and hail etc.ReplyDelete
Will this line of storms weaken before they hit winnipeg tonight? or are they gonna hold there potency.ReplyDelete
I think the average for June will be just above normal.ReplyDelete
Any chance of rain this weekend?ReplyDelete
I see the weather network is calling for isolated showers on Saturday and environment Canada says Sunny.
This is likely attributed to differences in models handling convection. The majority of the day on Saturday should be quite nice but there's a chance we see some thunderstorms later on in the day with a frontal system moving through. Not expecting anything too significant Saturday though from a chase perspective.ReplyDelete
Models seem to be hinting at a bit more of an active pattern for southern Manitoba starting on Monday. A ways out but there could be storm potential on Monday.ReplyDelete
Astounding lighting show last evening over eastern SK and western MB. Just constant.ReplyDelete
The tail end of the storm that produced tornadoes in Saskatchewan whipped a bit of Manitoba's Interlake region as well.ReplyDelete
Peter Schroeter, who lives in the Willow Bay cottage area near Ashern on Lake Manitoba, said many trees were ripped up by the wind and a number of people in the area can't get out of their homes because of trees blocking roads and driveways.
He said the storm woke him up around 2 a.m. on Wednesday.
"There was a huge bang and big hail, followed by lots of other bangs and the trees were snapping a couple of meters above the ground and the tops were flying," he said.
"The debris was, is everywhere, like my neighbour's lot is just, it looks like somebody piled wood on his driveway so many trees are down. Trees that are a foot in diameter snapped."
Many of the trees were dead or weakened from last year's flooding, Schroeter said, adding there is going to be a lot of cleaning up to do in the area.
Noticeable drop in humidity this afternoon.. 22C dewpoint at 2 pm dropped to 13C by 4 pm at the airport, and even 10C at my site. Still nice and toasty with plenty of sun and temps in the high 20s.ReplyDelete
Nothing like south of the border though where the heat is reaching Dust Bowl levels. Hill City KS hit 115F (46C) yesterday, and has at least equalled that today. Only 2F off their all time high of 117F. Triple digit heat spreading east into the Ohio valley tomorrow with 100F+ temps likely in places like Chicago and Detroit. Windsor could come close to their all time high of 40.2C Thursday set back on June 25 1988. They hit 30C today, and 850 temps are 10C warmer on Thursday!
What does the severe weather potential look like for next week with more heat and humidity coming in?
Dauphin area as well according to the Free Press http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/breakingnews/Storm-wreaks-damage-in-Dauphin-area-160556505.htmlReplyDelete
Anonymous.. GFS is indicating potential for tstorms over southern MB next Monday into Tuesday.. but that's just an early first guess at this point. Something to keep an eye on.ReplyDelete
I've noticed it's been deadly hot in southern plains and midwest USA lately, could there be a chance of some of that heat moving northward towards us next week or down the road or are we looking at more of a very warm and muggy week with storm potential?
Anonymous.. I'm wondering the same thing. There's an awful lot of heat and drought building in the central plains, with records from the dirty 30s falling. The years 1934 and 1936 have some of the most extreme heat on record for the plains and Great lakes, and some of these records have been shattered over the past few days. All it will take will be a building ridge over the central continent to push that heat northward, and we could be looking at some of that 40C heat moving into southern MB. Whether or not it happens, we'll have to wait and see.. but the potential is there given how hot it is south of the border.ReplyDelete
Awfully windy today.. gusting 60 km/h or more in Winnipeg. My wind sensor however has been intermittent for a weeks now.. I will need to take it down and look at a repair, but until I get to it.. wind measurements from Rob's Obs will be suspect.ReplyDelete
Derek was hinting that models are hinting a severe weather potential for monday and monday night, are models clearer on that today or are still to far out and what does thunderstorm potential look like for saturday?
That's heat wave is just insane..Are models hinting at the possibility of heat here down the road?
35.2C in Windsor today... warmest temperature recorded in Canada this year.ReplyDelete
Windsor also recorded a humidex of 45C at 9PM which is also the highest humidex in the country this year.
That 'bubble' of 40°C heat keeps getting closer. NAM showing 40°C temperatures as far north as central ND Monday. Will be interesting to see if we can get into that heat for a day or two at some point this summer.ReplyDelete
Monday is looking good for strong thunderstorms, potentially severe. MLCAPE of 2,000 J/KG in southern Manitoba along with good shear and lots of moisture. Frontal boundary looks to move through on Monday night. Could see storms fire in western MB late in the day, pushing through the RRV in the evening or overnight.ReplyDelete
Active pattern looks to continue through next week with us on top of the ridge. Models are showing good instability on multiple days next week. Let's hope the cap breaks!
Well June has been above normal. I think it was the warmest June since 2006.ReplyDelete
I notice ample moisture and instability over the Winnipeg region tomorrow is forecast by the models. As there remains no mention of thunderstorms in the forecast for tomorrow, is it safe to assume this is because of the lack of any real upper level winds/shear also unfortunately forecasted?ReplyDelete
Anonymous.. Upper ridge over us Sunday with good cap and subsidence will inhibit thunderstorm development over southern MB. Things look more interesting over southern SK Sunday west of the upper ridge, with good upper jet moving in and nice feed of low level moisture. Could see some severe storms over SW SK in the afternoon moving into SE SK by evening.ReplyDelete
BTW.. Deadlist tornado in Canadian history occurred exactly 100 years ago today.. the famous "Regina cyclone" of June 30 1912. 28 people killed as the F4 tornado tore a south to north path through the heart of the city in the late afternoon.ReplyDelete
Getting tired of this giant persistent cap over us. We haven't had any decent storms in weeks :(ReplyDelete
What are the chance for severe weather here in Southern Manitoba this coming week beginning with Monday?
Monday looks like we'll be getting some leftover storms as an MCS over SE SK Sunday night pushes into southwestern MB early Monday and into the RRV by midday. Depending on how quickly the morning convection can clear out, we may be looking at more storms later Monday over us.. but the morning covective debris may be too extensive.ReplyDelete
I certainly hope we can get some good rains next week. I don't think we want to see a repeat of last year's drought. These consistent sunny and hot days are quickly drying everything out.. similar to last year.ReplyDelete
Some very humid weather coming up for Southern Manitoba... possibility of some 40C humidexes right at the border Monday.ReplyDelete