A storm system developing over the US plains will bring an area of snow over the eastern Dakotas and NW Minnesota Monday, which will spread into southeast MB Monday afternoon into Monday night. Snow may be heavy at times especially south of the US border and east of the RRV where amounts of 10 cm or more are possible. In fact, the US National Weather Service in Grand Forks has issued a winter weather advisory for areas south and east of Grand Forks into NW Minnesota where 3 to 5 inches of snow is forecast (8 to 13 cm). UPDATE: Winter weather advisory has been expanded northwest to include Grand Forks and areas up to the Canadian border.
(Map showing 24hr snowfall amounts from RGEM between 6 am Monday and 6 am Tuesday. Dark green area is 10-15 cm over Lake of the Woods with sharply lower amounts west of the RRV. Light green line is 2.5 cm. Model output from 00z Feb 20 RGEM run)
In southern MB, there will be a sharp western edge to this area of snow, with little or no snow falling west of the RRV. In Winnipeg, snow is expected to begin late in the afternoon, with 2-5 cm possible through Monday night. Depending on where this western edge sets up, Winnipeg may get brushed with just a dusting of snow (more likely), or heavier amounts of 5-10 cm (less likely). Fortunately, winds with this system will be light and temperatures will be near the freezing mark so snow will be wet (even possibly beginning as rain at first) with little in the way of blowing or drifting. However, the snow may be heavy at times, especially south and east of Winnipeg with visibilities reduced to 500 metres or less. This will create locally poor travelling conditions and slick road conditions at times over the southern RRV and SE MB by Monday evening including Hwys 1, 59 and 75 south and east of Winnipeg.. an issue for residents heading back from the US or NW Ontario from the long holiday weekend.
Quick question Rob, Considering you post on your blog about weather situations in the province, would I be able to talk about the same weather on my blog with different wordings (eg.this potential storm system for monday)?ReplyDelete
The blog sphere is free domain Mike.. post away! I only ask that you give credit for any information that you copy directly from my blog.ReplyDelete
Thanks Rob, you have made my life a lot easier...... And I will make sure that I cite your information, and maybe in the future me and you can share our information together.ReplyDelete
Finally some weather to talk about :-DReplyDelete
Tonight's GEM not quite as aggressive on amounts over RRV and SE MB and shifts main snow axis a little further east towards Ontario border. This is more in line with what NAM and ECMWF have been showing. So, model consensus right now gives a dusting to 1 or 2 cm for Winnipeg, with 5-10 cm over SE MB (mainly southeast of Steinbach), with 10+ cm near the Ontario border Monday afternoon through Monday night.ReplyDelete
3- 5 inches of snow in the far northeastern north dakota as per the morning update. Biggest snowfall of the winter season...So far......ReplyDelete
According to the GFS winter weather might actually make a showing into the last week of February into March. Hmmmm.....
Sigh. Same bloody pattern. Everything always just misses usReplyDelete
Snowfall warnings issued for southeastern Manitoba!!!
EC now says 7-9 Cm of snow for Winnipeg.ReplyDelete
Potentially the biggest snowfall of the season!!!!
6 C in Portage La Prairie at noon time. Was not expecting that!
Rob what do you have to say about the snow increase?ReplyDelete
Still a tough call for Winnipeg. General model concensus points to bulk of snow occurring east of the city, but it will be close. I'm still thinking 2-5 cm for Winnipeg, mainly tonight.. with 5-10 cm for eastern RRV and 10-15 cm for areas closer to the Ontario border. Precip is moving in this afternoon southeast of Winnipeg as wet snow/rain mix due to temps of +2C, so snow will be melting on impact initially. But heavier snow looks likely by this evening as temps drop, and stronger lift moves in. Snow continues tonight into Tuesday morning before tapering off.
As noted. there will be a sharp drop in snow amounts on the western edge of this system, with little or no snow west of the RRV.
Radar is showing some pretty good snowfall rates right now in Southern Manitoba. 1/2 inch snowfall rate????ReplyDelete
Or is it rain?ReplyDelete
Daryl its snowing here in the south end of Winnipeg. Percipitation is falling as snow.ReplyDelete
It WAS snowing lightly at my place in south end an hour ago, but it has changed over to RAIN mixed with couple wet flakes. This will definitely lower our snow totals. Sharp snow shield just slowly edging into the city.ReplyDelete
Take down the snow shields.....LOLReplyDelete
Here at #8 and the perimeter we have not had a snowflake or rain yet.ReplyDelete
Amazing how that western edge of the precip shield is just sitting over the city.. nothing here in Charleswood as of 9:40 pm...but I'm sure there's wet snow in Transcona. I suspect the snow will gradually work its way west across the city tonight into Tuesday.. but bulk of snow should remain east of the city.ReplyDelete
Boy no more rain here now that's for sure. Snowing extremely heavily now, accumulating very fast. (south end)ReplyDelete
It will be interesting to see the snowfall totals in various parts of the city by morning.
A little Drizzle at #8 and Perimeter. Just started.ReplyDelete
Wow, coming down here nice in Windsor Park. Rob, can you post any accumulations you mught have in the morning.ReplyDelete
Just some light snow in Charleswood now... Barely a trace on the ground. We'll see how much we end up with here in the west end.ReplyDelete
Estimated about 4cm here in south-east Winnipeg, possibly even more. Interesting to see how the accumulations will spread our over the night.ReplyDelete
#8 and Perimeter been snowing now for approx 30 minutes. Snow is very light and very fine barely a trace on the groundReplyDelete
Maybe a half a cm in the area of #8 and Perimeter. Snow looks like it might be picking up a bit. Radar shows the system starting to counter rotate and moving to the west.ReplyDelete
1.4 cm in Charleswood as of 8 am, with snow still falling.. but lightly. About 3 cm in downtown Winnipeg, and 8 cm reported in St Vital. 12 cm just east of the city in Oakbank, with reports of 10-15 cm in Beausejour. Amazing how the western edge of the snow shield basically cut the city in half, with hardly any snow falling west of the city Perimeter, and 10 cm or more east of the Perimeter.ReplyDelete
A high of -1 C today???ReplyDelete
Looks like the cold air advection has kicked in and the temps are falling with that stiff NW winds!
Coming down hard now here in St. Vital. Only 2 cm today?ReplyDelete
Same here in downtown Winnipeg. Snowfall rates have really increased!!!ReplyDelete
Generally light wrap around snow today, but radar shows some N-S banding within the wrap-around giving occasional heavier bursts of snow. Perhaps another 2-4 cm today. but I don't expect much more with system pulling out.ReplyDelete
If there are such big differences in snow fall amounts through out the city, how does the actual amount get measured?
Unfortunately, official snowfall observations are no longer taken at Winnipeg airport, which is our official monitoring site as far as Winnipeg weather data is concerned (as well as The Forks, but that's an automated station with a much shorter observation history) "Official" means the station is officially registered as an EC station (either autostation, manned site, or volunteer climate site), and the data is entered into EC's climate database.
Winnipeg airport stopped taking official snowfall observations in 2004 (after having snowfall records since 1872), and since that time, I've been taking snowfall measurements as a volunteer climate observer from my place in Charleswood, which are now used as official Winnipeg snowfall stats. Sometimes (as in this latest event), my place won't be representative for Winnipeg.. but that can happen with any precip reading.. especially with summertime rainfall when one part of the city can get swamped with a storm, and other parts are dry.
Long story short.. officially, this event will go down as whatever I measure in Charleswood, but "unofficially" there were higher amounts elsewhere in the city.