Saturday, September 03, 2011
Beautiful first week of September ahead
Cool unsettled weather over southern Manitoba today will give way to clearing skies and more pleasant conditions Sunday as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures Sunday will still be a couple degrees below normal for early September, but lighter winds and more sunshine will result in a more pleasant day than Saturday. The ridge will move east of the province on Labour Day resulting in a southerly flow of warmer temperatures in the low 20s for the last day of the holiday weekend. The rest of the week looks fabulous as an upper ridge builds over the Prairies allowing sunny skies and increasingly warmer air to build over southern Manitoba through the upcoming week. Look for sunny skies and mid 20C temperatures as the kids head back to school Wednesday with temperatures rising into the upper 20s to near 30C by Thursday and Friday. The summer of 2011 ain't over just yet!
Posted by rob at 9:53 PM
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So Rob, how are your wind readings working out so far since you moved your device on the roof???ReplyDelete
Walking around Portage and Main yesterday got me thinking HOW MUCH could wind speeds be increased by funneling around buildings?? Would you say that in some areas the winds could be 10-15 km higher in areas around the building???
My wind readings are better than before, but they're still on the light side compared to actual winds in an exposed area like the airport. The problem is that even though my anemometer is on the roof, there are still enough trees and buildings around that effectively block or reduce the wind in residential areas. I'd have to have a mast that was 20 or 30 feet above the roof line to truly capture the prevailing wind, but I won't be going to that extreme. Wind speeds at my site will likely be higher once the surrounding trees have lost their leaves.
Nice day today, don't mind the nice breeze. I just wish that it sticks around for a while. although People along the east coast are facing remains of a TS, Non stop rains for them. as well some damage was caused in upstate NY as a Tornado touched down on saturday. No one was injured.ReplyDelete
Let us know when our next chance for rain is rob.
Check out Chris Burt's extreme weather blog (link on your blog section) The gruesome results are in. Could be the hottest summer on record ever. I had a feeling it was that bad!
What a week we have to look forward too. Amazing temperatures. For all to enjoy!!!ReplyDelete
Yep, a week of perfect weather.. sunny warm days, cool comfortable nights.. low humidity and a bit of a breeze. Perfect. Unless you like some variety or wild weather.. then this week is supremely boring.ReplyDelete
Mike.. if you believe the long range models, looks like our next threat of rain won't be until the middle of next week some time.. (next Wed or Thu) We have a cool front pushing through on Sunday, but it should be dry with very little surface moisture to work with. Next organized system pushes in by next Thursday with some showers/tstorms possible. Until then, looks like a prolonged stretch of dry weather for us (7-10 days). Great time for those golf games or outdoor painting projects!
Re: Chris Burt's extreme weather blog post. Yeah, I saw that. Some amazing heat records coming out of the deep south. The most impressive one is from Lubbock and San Angelo TX. They had their hottest month ever in June, only to be followed by an even hotter July, only to be followed by an even hotter August. Their top 3 hottest months ever recorded in over 100 years were 3 consecutive months this summer. Chris Burt thinks such a stat is unprecedented in US weather history..
Lubbock has some crazy weather. Check out the data for February 2011. Temperatures rose from -16 C on the 9th to 29 C on the 16th! A 46-degree rise in one week!ReplyDelete
Holy Texans that is crazy! 46 degree rise in one week. I'll notify al gore and let him know that global warmings in full force.ReplyDelete
Is there a possible explanation for the 46 Degree shift for temperatures in Lubbock? anyone?
Seems like all of Texas has been dealing with a never ending drought since the beginning of the year. Its been really bad for wildfires there this year close to 10,000 hectares of bush have been scorched by them already with only half of the fires contained.ReplyDelete
Click my name for a news link on the fires. You might have trouble loading the page with an older browser.
Mike.. the southern and central plains of the US are no strangers to wild swings in the weather. Because of their latitude, elevation and lack of moderating influences, they can go from mid winter cold to summer heat (or vice versa) very rapidly. Snow cover can cause temperatures to drop quickly in those areas, but that snowcover can also melt rapidly with warming winds from the southwest US and Mexico and a stronger southern sun. The same week that Lubbock recorded that 45C rise, Onatawa OK went from a state record low of -31F (-35C) on the 10th to 79F (26C) on the 17th.. an amazing 110F (61C) rise in a week.ReplyDelete
But it can happen even quicker. On Nov 11, 1911, a sharp cold front (known as a "blue norther") pushed through the southern plains, sending temperatures in Oklahoma City from a record high of 83F (28C) in the afternoon, to a record low of 17F (-8C) by midnight the same day, a plunge of 66F (36C) in less than 12 hours!
hearing that I'd love to live in texas although our temps don't swing that wildy fast in manitoba but it can happen.ReplyDelete
Heres a fact of our temperature swings in manitoba. Back on June 30,1921 around midnight A severe thunderstorm pummelled killarney manitoba sending the temperature as high as 34C from a sudden wind gust. The temperature before the storm was close to 10C thats a 20C degree differnce. Although its not as bad as the temperature fluctutations in Texas it still was incredible. this particular incident occured by a heatburst they normally are characterized by gusty winds and a rapid increase in temperature and decrease in dewpoint as low as (-14C) the lower the dewpoint the hotter the air. These typically occur at nighttime and are an ocassional occurence with decaying thunderstorms, all depending on the atmospheres overall conditions.
Let me see, what is the record for tomorrow......Hmmmmmm......33.9 C!ReplyDelete
There's a slim chance of breaking that tomorrow, but u never know!
There is a poll question on CTV Winnipeg that asks:ReplyDelete
What did you think of Winnipeg's summer????
1% of the people polled actually thought is was too wet.... What isolated rain cloud were they sitting under??? LOL
YWG hit 30.4C today, and tomorrow we're 1-2C warmer aloft.. so 31-32C looks likely Thursday.. the 33.9C record is a bit of a reach for us. Looks like we'll hit a couple more 30C days Friday and Saturday before cold front pushes through Sunday afternoon, with cooler air for the beginning of next week.ReplyDelete
30 C already at 1:00 in Winnipeg!
This weather is really quite stunning for this time of year!
Have you ever heard of the term SEVERE CLEAR????ReplyDelete
Seriously....it is a real term.
That is us today!!
Does the jet contrails count as clouds????
rob, are you able to see the low level jet in the late evening during clear weather?ReplyDelete
I did notice some sort of stationary thin cloud hovering overhead last night from west to east, was that the LLJ?
Let me know thanks
There wasn't much of an LLJ last night Mike. LLJ is when the wind comes from the south (20kt+) around the 850-925mb levels (you can't see wind).ReplyDelete
Is it a record for the numbers of 30 C days in September?ReplyDelete
Thanks for the information Anon. I know I can't see wind its common sense.ReplyDelete
Anon... could you rephrase your question you were asking about 30C I'll try and answer you after.ReplyDelete
If you all like hot weather get out and all enjoy this weekend, cause after that a wicked cold front will really take a bite out of the temperatures...ReplyDelete
yes daniel I for sure agree with you looks like the NOAA forecast loop shows a series of lows chained together moving south on monday with a low to moderate chance of seeing thunderstorms or rain. All this will happen before the big cooldown bringing with it a potential for frost and overnight lows near zero. Therefore the ridge in the jetstream over the prairies will break down, and will not see high pressure rebuild the ridge for a long while.ReplyDelete
So get the sunblock out, go to the beach and have fun. Winter is calling, meaning an end to our storm season! We will have to wait until 2012 for more of our storms.
Could it be that we could go from getting near record highs all this week, to all of sudden almost hitting record lows next week??? LOL~!! Crazy weather.ReplyDelete
I understand we've officially returned to a La Nina with a vengeance. Does this mean we will see those -40C temperatures and potentially an 80C (144F) differential in 6 months.ReplyDelete
We came close in 1965-66 from +35.6C Aug 13 to -45.0 on Feb 18 one of 8 -40 readings that Jan/Feb . One of the coldest winters was ironically a waning El Nino.
1995-96 was more akin to this year. May thru August 1995 produced 22 days of 30 or more peaking at 37.8 on June17th. It produced a Summer ENSO Index (JJA) SST of 0.0. It also produced a nasty La Nina winter with an avg DJF anomaly of -2.8. More noticable were the 4 months in which the anomaly exceeded -4.9 to -6.9 Nov, Jan, Mar and April. Those 8 August Days of >30C produced a 34.0 on August`17 It didn't prepare one for a -37.0 on Dec 12 th less than 4 months later or -39.8 Jan 19th and -41.8 on Feb1st
Yes, quite the dramatic change coming up by Tuesday and Wednesday. We cool off Monday, but an even colder shot comes in Tuesday into Wednesday, with the GFS showing -6C air at 850 mb by Wednesday morning. That could produce some heavy lake effect showers off the warm MB lakes, possibly even mixed with wet snow if the bands are heavy enough! Ridge builds in Thursday with the season's first widespread frost likely by then. So yeah, get and enjoy what looks like summer's last hurrah this weekend!ReplyDelete
By the way, record high for Winnipeg tomorrow is 32.4C.. and I think we'll break it. 850 mb temps rise to 19C, about 2C higher than today when we hit 31.7C, plus we have a westerly downslope flow and dry air. That should get us to between 33-34C Saturday, our 4th 30C+ reading this month, and our 23rd 30C reading of the year, most since 2006 (24 days) Record number of 30C days in one year appears to be shared by 1988 and 1961 at 34 days.
Let's hope we don't have a repeat of the winter 95-96.. that winter was brutal!