Thursday, August 25, 2011

Another 30C day on tap today.. showers possible Sunday

30C temperatures will be returning to southern Manitoba today as southerly winds develop ahead of a trough of low pressure pushing across southern SK. For Winnipeg, today's high of 30-32C will be the 19th time this summer the city has hit the 30c mark.. the most 30c days in a summer since 2006 when we had 22 days of 30C or more. On average, Winnipeg sees 11 days of 30C weather between June and August but the past few summers have generally fallen short of that mark. In fact, this summer's 30C total will match the total number of 30C days for the past 3 summers combined! The following table lists the number of 30C days in Winnipeg (at YWG airport) since 2006.

30C days in Winnipeg - June through August

2011 ...... 19 (as of Aug 25th)
2010 ...... 11
2009 ....... 3
2008 ....... 5
2007 ....... 10
2006 ....... 22

Slightly cooler but sunny conditions are forecast for Friday and Saturday before some unsettled weather moves in for Sunday with showers and scattered thunderstorms possible over the Red River valley. Let's hope it materializes. Other than a 20 minute downpour of 21 mm during last Thursday's thunderstorm, rain events have been few and far between these past two months.


  1. With so much hot air down south we stand a good chance of beating 2006 for more 30C + days!
    We should see a few more in Septemeber!!

    Rob, on a side note it seems like 1980 was a very hot year for areas in the deep south of the U.S
    The fact that this year they are keeping up or surpasssing their records is truly amazing. Dallas TX is up to 58 days at 100F or higher ( we have not even hit it once)

  2. Well, we'll see how it goes. Is it just me or have the public forecasts been a little crazy this summer? Yesterday Whiteshell winds were forecast at 40 G 60 for this evening (so cancel boating plans), but in today's forecast winds aren't even mentioned!

  3. No it's not just you. I think some inexperienced "kids" are at the helm on the forecast desk. I think the 'wild swings' in the forecast are model driven and these kids just mirror their next 6 hour update to the forecast in accordance with the last model run. Hence the forecasts flip flop. There's little consistency even in a 24H look ahead. Trying to organize an outdoor event with these forecasts is really hit and miss!

  4. Is anyone following Hurricane Irene???
    Sounds like things could get very bad!!!

  5. I have been following it a lot lately. Looks like the track of the hurricane will depend on overall movement of weather systems. Depending on conditions it could either take a direct path hitting the eastern seaboard affecting major american cities such as new york,new jersey,virginia and including atlantic canada. Although if the hurricane travels further east it will not hit the populated areas it will instead stay out in the atlantic. This may be the first sig hurricane to hit the US since 2005, if it hits it would be a very ugly scene as people aren't as prepared in NY for hurricanes with winds packing180 km/h. As they aren't prone to em. It would be all over the news, thats global warming for you.

    you can follow the latest by clicking on my name which is a link to the US National hurricane center in florida enjoy!

  6. Chalk up another billion dollar diaster for the U.S if the hurricane hits New York wait MULTI-BILLION dollar diaster!

  7. DAN GF!
    I found this on the NWS Grand Forks website:

    Open House Sept 17...Save the Date!

    Did you ever wonder who is responsible for issuing warnings and watches that interrupt your favorite sporting event or soap opera? Well, it is your National Weather Service (NWS), and here is your opportunity to come and meet us and see what we do every day!

    On Saturday, September 17, 2011 from 10am until 3 pm, the National Weather Service in Grand Forks, ND will host an open house open to everyone. We are located at 4797 Technology Circle, Grand Forks, ND 58203, just south of University Avenue to the west of Interstate 29. The main parking area will be at the USDA building just south of the NWS. Restrooms will be available at the Grand Forks Parks District building to the west of the NWS.

    That is so cool. I wish I could attend!!!

  8. Sweet, would they allow canadians to attend if it's open to the public?
    What would they do if there was a severe weather situation during the open house would they kick everyone out lol?

  9. Some radar returns showing up behind the surface trough in western N Dakota and Saskatchewan. Nice axis of 16-18 C Td's over central N Dakota. As the front continues to move east encountering higher moisture and interacting with 40-50 kt bulk shear, a compact wave coming out of Montana, and some convergence from back edge of LLJ, I would expect at least some showers/precip (30 to 40% coverage) to open up along the northern edge of cap and build south. Maybe some thunder if we're lucky ;)

  10. Lots of altocumulus passing over before sunset indicating some elevated instability. So far main precipitation has been to our NE along LLJ north of 8 C isotherm at 700 hPa. Secondary area of showers and virga (about to pass thru S Winnipeg) ahead of small wave moving up from the states. Still think precip will get better organized as that disturbance weakens cap, but may only happen until main precip area has shifted east of us. In that case we will have to wait for the weekend for some much needed rain.

  11. Rob!

    Once I post something on this blog and hit the "publish your comment" button, is possible to go back later and make changes too it???

    I notice that you can on your MAIN post ( like today changing 18 to 19 days above 30C )

  12. daniel..

    As blog owner and administrator, I can add posts and edit them.. and I can also delete comments from anyone if I want to. Everyone else can only post comments to my blog posts. As far as I know, there are no editing capabilities for anyone except myself. So no, you can't go back and edit a comment.. but you can add a new one and delete the old one which I've seen people do. (But I think you need a google account to do that.. not sure..)

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  15. For those of you who were asking about wind n'wave heights near Gimli on Lake Winnipeg (or near Hurricane Irene or any other location try
    Lake Winnipeg Beaches
    Change the Buoy to
    45145 Lake Winnipeg Narrows*
    45140 Lake Winnipeg South Basin*
    41010* recently near Hurricane Irene
    * Corrected
    The following gives access readings nearby
    Waves on Boats n Bouys Nearby Lake Wpg Beaches

  16. Thanks for the links Don.. NDBC is a great source for marine data. Great site to follow hurricanes with.

    Speaking of which, buoy SE of Charelston SC measuring 54 kt gusts and 25 ft waves with approach of Irene. Looks like it won't be as bad as initially feared, as Irene appears to be interacting with drier air and shear as it gets closer to the coast. Will have a hard time maintaining Cat 2 strength by the time it gets to Long Island.. but still a Cat 1 possible by then with a lot of rain and strong winds.

  17. I feel that new york city will see the worst of this hurricane. The land elevation near the shoreline in new york is similar to the baton rouge in new know what that means, they have a significant risk for flooding in a very populated area along with the strong winds that could cause some falling of new yorks skyscrapers. The east coast is not use to seeing this kind of weather, as it is lets hope its not as bad as hurricane katrina. Seeing the recent satellite pictures i think it would be best to say that irene is slowly weakening but wont die out before hitting the north east seaboard.

    Hurricane katrina will still live up to its name.

    With this hurricane at all is there a possiblity that it will produce tornadoes? As some can do.

    Let me know.......

  18. what does the term LLJ mean? They have mentioned it in the FOCN 45 as i read before. Is it possible to locate the LLJ in a weather model, and its movement? how does it relate to severe weather forecasting?
    let me know thanks.....

  19. Low Level Jet ??

  20. I apologize Anon and others. I know what the term means, I was wondering if i could find its location and movement on a certain weather model, any ideas?

  21. @Mike:

    The LLJ is usually a channel of winds found at 850 mb or even 925 mb.

    Its relation to severe weather forecasting is for a few reasons.

    1. It serves as a mechanism to transport heat and moisture. It will usually strengthen at sunset with the decoupling of the surface from the part of the atmosphere directly above it (i.e. up to about 1 km above ground).

    2) It provides wind shear necessary for updraft separation (storm organization, either into multicells or supercells).

    3) It is something that, in a convective downdraft, can be mixed downward, giving severe winds to the surface.

    A rule of thumb is that it's not really called a LLJ until it gets into the 20 knot range. A strong LLJ is on the order of 40 to 50 knots.

  22. Near New Bern NC (British Colonial Capitol) Rain rate to noon of
    >400mm in last 24 hours,
    300mm in 12 hrs and
    150 in 3 hrs to noon today

  23. Wind and Rainfall warning as far inland as Montreal.

    Kind of excited to see the storm tommorow. Hopefully everyone stay safe.

  24. Some storms are forming in SE Sask and moving SE, some are also skitting by the corner of SW MB . Ec is mentioning a risk of thunderstorms across the south tonight and tomorrow. We have an oppurtunity for a few to hit us tomorrow. Just as Rob predicted. I'll know more about our severe weather threat tomorrow as I read up on the local forecast discussions, and review the models. Also hang in there people on the east coast.

  25. quick note: one storm in SE Sask appears to have a hook echo on it and is moving SE towards rockglen and the border. There might be tornado report on TWN tomorrow. check KTIV storm track four interactive for reference.

  26. Some showers sneaking into southern MB tonight moving towards Winnipeg and the RRV.. might see some light rain here after midnight if it holds together.

  27. Some storms this morning in Southern Manitoba! Looks like Winnipeg will miss out on the action!!!

  28. Mike --

    regarding the open house at NWS FGF - Canadians are of course welcome.... if it looks like bad weather on day of event then we will re-schedule but this would be done well ahead of time. If you guys get the chance come on down and stop by and do some shopping. I think our SuperTarget is home to many Manitobans.

  29. Thanks Dan GF!
    I will have to find a way to take the day off work!
    I would love to attend!!
    Are you going to be in working that day Dan???

  30. Dan GF thanks for the invite... Also thanks to NWS GF for the great New? tool ** Precipitation Analysis** on the left column of NWS Grand Forks home page...Have been using it to Dial in any location ie Aurora NC or New York NY to see rain totals for the last 3, 6, 12 or 24 Hours or the last 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 14, 30, 60. or 90 days.
    Also particular Interest in the Southern MB and SK areas of the Pembina and Souris River Basins such as Estevan and Wawanesa, Pilot Mound, Glenboro etc.

  31. SATURDAY the 17th NO Blue Bomber Game hopefully not working.

  32. Bisons vs Sask Homecoming??

  33. Daniel P and others...

    Hope to see some of you down. May not be the most exciting thing ever, but at least you get to see the inside of NWS office and see our equipment/computers, etc.

    I personally am not on shift that day but likely here to help out.

    I am not on the open house committee so dont know the entire set up. But the last one we had a few years ago was structured as such to bring folks into the conf room for a presentation about our office and what we do, then a operations area tour....then out back to see some observing equipment. Not a lot of hands on stuff in weather anymore, more showing computer programs and such that are used to generate a forecast.

  34. Rob!
    As a side note;
    New York City is now up to 19.68 inches of rain this month! The most rain they have ever had in any month. Surely that is close to the most amount of rain in a month in any place in the U.S!

  35. looks like wev'e missed out again on the threat for severe weather. We did have a watch earlier, it has since ended. I'd rate this storm season in winnipeg a poor */***** or 1 out of 5 stars, so far.

  36. Storm warning now being issued for a small severe storm near Gladstone!!

  37. Storms entering manitoba as of 4:30pm. A slight chance we could see some overnight here in winnipeg. For those of you waiting for a big rainfall, thursday looks promising as we could see some storms as well that day.

  38. so is this one of the driest July-August summers on record? I've never seen so many open cracks on my lawn!

  39. What?? Should we break out the Cold Weather gear. Hi's of +17 and +19 Sat/Sun .

  40. Wednesday night and Thursday morning looks interesting. Could get some strong elevated storms. Mabye an MCS.

  41. will have to wait and see. It'd be awesome if we get some storms, it almost feels like I forgot what there like. Its been that long.

  42. Models are in agreement regarding tomorrow night/Thursday morning.

    They show 2,000+ J/KG of MLCAPE, 40-50 kts of deep shear, a 40-50 kt low level jet, and good lifting ahead of an approaching boundary.

    Interested in seeing what everyone else thinks but we could be in for some legit elevated convection starting tomorrow night.

  43. Rob!
    With so much warm air in the U.S you think we could crank a few more 30+ C days in September????

  44. Sorry to hear you guys are still in drought. Maybe we can give you some of the moisture we've had here in Montreal.

    224.6mm of rain this August which makes August 2011 our second wettest month ever. First is September 1975 with 227.7 mm.

    We really had everything this August, thunderstorms, heat and even a hurricane.

  45. Wow, ya it seems the pattern this summer just hasn't changed much at all. Extreme drought here, meanwhile extreme wetness out east. So hard to believe we've gone through over 2 months without a widespread rainfall. Feels like we live in a desert ;) Wouldn't mind sending you some sunshine out east.

    Tomorrow night still looks pretty good for rain and storms over south MB at least, lets hope that sticks.

  46. Anonymous, even though we've had 220+ mm this month, we haven't been so cloudy...

    It's just a typical summer pattern with sunshine and then afternoon storms.

    The only full cloudy day was when Irene brought high winds and heavy rain.

    The summer has been one to remember in the East... we have had 67 straight days with a high above 20C and 87 consecutive days where the low haven't dropped below 10C in the Montreal region.

  47. Carlsen is going for the discussion of the year award! Lets see if that MCS eastward march through southern MB unfolds as planned.

  48. Greetings fellow bloggers! Apologies for the lack of responses lately.. was in Grand Forks for a few days doing the shopping thing (with a wife and 2 teenage daughters, not a lot of time for weather :)

    Had a nice little downpour in GFK yesterday and drove up through some cells north of GFK on the way back to Winnipeg. Almost forgot what rain looked like :) Alas, nothing by the time we got back to Winnipeg late yesterday, although I see some showers/tstorms popped up over parts of the city and east last evening (nothing at my place) I was surprised to see that YWG airport picked up 8 mm yesterday out of that brief thundershower! If accurate, it gives us 93 mm of rain for the summer, driest here since the infamous summer of 1961 at 91 mm.

    We'll see if we can pick some up more rain tonight into Thursday as that cold front pushes in.. As noted, best storms likely over eastern SK into western MB and interlake, with a potential for MCS or squall line pushing across RRV tonight/overnight. Would be nice to see August end off with a nice storm! Cooler weather moves in right on cue for September.. at least for the first few days. Warmer weather poised to return next week. Whether we see 30C again remains to be seen.. usually we're good for a least 1 or 2 days in September, and there's still plenty of heat to our southwest which we can tap. On the other hand, you have to wonder if we used up our quota of 30C days these past couple of months!

    Will try to have a new post this morning.