Tuesday, March 15, 2011

System to bring rain and snow to southern MB Wednesday

A low pressure system moving across southern MB Wednesday into Wednesday night is forecast to bring an area of rain and snow to our area, with some potentially heavy snowfall through the Riding Mountain and Interlake regions where snowfall warnings have been issued. Current indications are that areas along and south of the TransCanada will get some rain and wet snow Wednesday while areas north of the TransCanada through the Interlake and Riding Mtn areas will see mainly snow.. possibly heavy at times. At this point, it looks like maybe 5 mm of rain will fall along the TransCanada corridor Wednesday, including Winnipeg, with rain mixed with wet snow at times especially by evening. Heavier snowfall amounts of 10-15 cm are possible to our north and northwest Wednesday into Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts will be tricky depending on surface temperatures (will be some melting with near or above freezing temps Wednesday), timing of transition to snow, and elevation issues (heaviest snowfall will likely be over higher elevations to the west of Lake Manitoba). Travellers should be advised that locally heavy snow may be occurring Wednesday into Wednesday evening, especially north and northwest of Winnipeg.


  1. I just took a snow core in my backyard. Current snowpack liquid equivalent at my house in Steinbach is approx. 108mm. This is up substantially from the last snow core I took, which only indicated about 67mm of liquid.

    Not good for the flooding situation...hopefully some of this week's melting will help reduce the snowpack ahead of the big melt over the next few weeks.

  2. Rob

    Slightly different topic. With all the news about the power plant, radiation leaks etc. How long does it take for the weather systems to arrive on the west coast from the Japan area and do those systems eventually make it to Manitoba? I remember reading in the second world war the Japenese sending balloon bombs from their coast and they made it to the Oregan area. I know most are saying their is no health risks to us but just like an idea how long those systems take to make it to North America.

  3. Last 2 Polls Rob, at the halfway point, what are the stats??

  4. Rob the Link you provided to the HPC Experimental Winter Precip Probability Graphic. displays todays system further south w/greater rain n Snow at each update.


  5. Daryl..

    Luckily, Japan is far away (7500 km between Japan and BC), and many weather systems that affect Japan never make it to Canada.. but rather move up over the North Pacific towards Russia or Alaska or just dissipate over the Pacific. Even if there's a strong jet stream and favourable upper air pattern, it would still take a good 3 or 4 days (or more) for a weather system in Japan to reach the West Coast of North America and then another couple of days to reach Manitoba (if at all) Even if it does, the amount of radiation that would be left would be minimal by the time it reached NA as the radioactive material would have been diffused by the wind, or precipitated out. But it would also depend on how much radioactive material was injected into the air, and at what height. I'm not a nuclear fallout expert by any means, but that's what I've read so far.

    See Jeff Masters blog for some good info on atmospheric circulations and possible radiation cloud trajectories. NY Times has a nice graphic showing a model trajectory from Japan to California this week, requiring 6 days for a plume to cross the Pacific (click my name).

    What a disaster for the poor Japanese. The earthquake was impressive enough, but that tsunami was something else.. and now a nuclear emergency on top of it all. Hollywood can't even come close to the scenes I've seen out of Japan the past few days. I hope the best for them in the months and years ahead.

  6. Thanks Rob

    Yes the suffering is inmeasurable. So often we see suffering in some hot arid part of the world where the people are poor and we have a difficult time identifying their suffering with us because we have it so good and their situation is so bleak. But in this situation you can totally identify as these people lived like us with houses like we have and vehicles and jobs. Just imagine all that being ripped apart by an earthquake and then a flood of biblical strength combined with tempertures that we are experincing right now and cap it off with the stress of being exposed to radiation.

    I don't mean to minimize other peoples suffering just using the analogy that we can identify closely and also know that something similar could happen to our countrymen on both coasts.

  7. As Daryl has said, it hits home a little more for me to see a well developed first world nation almost torn to pieces with people jumping from 1st to 3rd world status almost overnight.

    On topic....how are the models handling this upcoming Colorado low?

  8. Thanks Scott for the Snow water equiv. I will pass it on....

    We are starting to see minor rises on some tribs over NW/Wcntrl Minnesota attm....nothing on them mainstem Red.

  9. Anon..

    Latest model guidance has backed off on significant pcpn amounts with Sunday's system. It looks like we'll get some light rain or wet snow Saturday night into Sunday (with a risk of frzg rain), changing to some snow Sunday night into Monday. Overall pcpn amounts over the RRV look to be in the 5-10 mm range Sunday into Monday..

    Another central plains low threatens snow for Tuesday into Wednesday.. but that one looks like it should stay south of us and mainly affect the Dakotas.

    As for that +9C forecast for Winnipeg Saturday.. that's a tad optimistic given a southerly flow out of a departing ridge over a snowpack.. with morning lows of -10C or lower. Highs Saturday of 0 to +3C more likely in the RRV.

  10. Visible satellite photos showing a noticeable lack of snow cover over the southern RRV of southern MB into the northern RRV of ND to Grand Forks. Quite a bit of dark ground becoming exposed in this area which will lead to warmer daytime temperatures in this area on sunny days and a quicker snowmelt. Climate reports from Carman and Winkler indicate around 10 cm of snow on ground as of this morning.. still 30 cm in Winnipeg.

  11. Rob, you were right about that 9 C....long gone! 3 C and rain showers are the order of the day!!

  12. Whoa!
    I cannot believe some of the temperatures in parts of the U.S the past few days!!!

    Today New York City is sitting at 25 C as of 3:00 pm. Amazing!

  13. Rob,

    What does it look like for Sunday into Monday? Snow and if so how much do you think?

  14. I hope they are wrong about the rain for the next 3 days. Not needed.

  15. Three interesting Red River Images in Grand Forks from today in 2009,2010,2011

    Sortie Bridge 2009

  16. Looks like some rain will be moving into the RRV from the south this evening.. possibly mixed with some ice pellets at first. Evening temperatures should be above freezing by the time the rain starts.. but if not, watch out for some freezing rain before temps rise above zero.

    Band of rain will continue tonight pushing into Interlake overnight into Sunday morning where it will change to snow further north and northwest of us as it encounters colder air and higher elevation. Some drizzle and fog over the RRV Sunday will change to some light snow Sunday night into early Monday as colder air returns with some wrap around snow as the system moves to our east. Not much accumulation expected at this point with perhaps 2-3 cm by Monday morning over Winnipeg/RRV.

    Overall rain amounts over the next 24 hours should be in the 5-10 mm range for Winnipeg and the RRV, with 10-15 mm north of us, and perhaps 10-20 cm of snow through the western Interlake/Riding Mtn areas by Sunday night.

  17. Looks like a major snow event will hammer the central and southern RRV tues aftn-night-wed am. could be a mix of rain/snow at first but all snow tues night-early wed. snow totals could be quite high... GF southward....

  18. Dan

    We'll be watching that Tuesday system closely as well.. models have been trending northward with that system over the past couple of runs. May be affecting southern SK and southern MB more than we first thought..

  19. saw some lightning tonight.

  20. Rob What are your thoughts on Tuesdays weather?
    Some f'casts have 50% POP of ≥20cms of snow for the RRV in ND.
    Any sign of that trending north?

  21. Don..

    Yes, the trend has been northward the past few runs.. with models showing significant snowfall pushing over southwest MB and into the southern RRV. Main low and upper support will be over the Dakotas, so the best chance of significant snowfall should be mainly south of Winnipeg.. but we'll have to monitor to see if the northward trend continues.

    It does appear however that the Red River basin will be seeing some significant snowfall (or mixed precipitation) Tuesday into Wednesday. Hopefully, these have been factored into flood forecasts, and shouldn't affect flood outlooks significantly.

  22. What it the average date snow usually arrives in southern Manitoba ? and stays