Sunday, February 13, 2011

Mild week ahead.. Storm system threatens snow, colder temps for late week

Springlike weather will be moving over southern MB this week as a mild Pacific airmass spreads across the Prairies. We'll get a taste of that mild weather today as a westerly wind brings in above freezing temps into southern MB and the RRV with highs of +2 or +3C. A cold front however will push through this afternoon into this evening, bringing a few rainshowers that will change over to snow by late afternoon/evening as temperatures drop below freezing. Watch for icy conditions tonight as northerly winds bring in colder air and freeze up any standing water. Monday will see increasing southerly winds develop in the afternoon and evening, bringing temperatures back towards freezing. This will set the stage for very mild conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as the peak of the warm air spreads over southern MB. Temperatures will be climbing into the +2 to +5C range over Winnipeg/RRV with +7C readings possible over the traditionally warmer downslope areas from the eastern Riding Mtns through the western RRV (Dauphin to Portage and Morden)

Attention then turn to a potential storm system that may affect southern MB for the end of the week. Long range models are showing a storm system developing over the central Plains that will be moving into Minnesota by Friday. This system will be bringing increasing north winds and colder temperatures by Friday along with the potential for accumulating snow, possibly significant over the RRV. At this point, it's too early to be more specific, but it does pose our next threat for significant snowfall. Stay tuned.

30 comments:

  1. Temperatures popping up nicely today with that westerly wind kicking in.. already +4 to +5C in Portage and Morden as of 10 am this morning. Strong winds over southern SK will be moving into North Dakota this afternoon with gusts to 90 m/h possible. Some of these stronger west winds will clip southwest MB and areas near the US border.

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  2. Already +4C in Steinbach. This is the warmest day since Nov. 12 here.

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  3. Rob, do you know what happened to the weather channel on SHAW 48?
    It does not give out warnings anymore. The current conditions for cities across the U.S and canada does not even fit on the screen, like "rainshow""fair and B"

    I guess now in the day and age of cell phones and internet , the day and age of the "weather channel" are done!!

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  4. -2 C at Gimli with a lite NE flow while temps of 6 and 7 C at Grand Forks and Fargo with a strong westerly flow at 20 kts (some real snow-eating conditions). The light winds here suggest the trough is nearly overhead..

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  5. I think the Shaw channel does still show weather warnings and statements, on a red screen, no? You have to wait, but it should come up if there's a warning out. :)

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  6. Shaw gets its weather directly from a data feed now.. with no input from Winnipeg EC meteorologists. There was a time when the Winnipeg weather office staff would input some pages (including the forecast and warnings) but it's since been automated. If there's a warning out for Winnipeg, Shaw will simply put up a message saying a weather warning has been issued for the region and to consult weatheroffice.ca for further details. Yeah I know.. progress. Any red screen warnings now are only on the Weather Network channel as far as I know..

    You're right though.. in this day and age of instant weather right at at your fingertips, Shaw 48 weather channel has become a bit of a dinosaur.. Gone are the days when TV screens around the city would become burned in with the Shaw 48 weather channel banner!

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  7. Some record highs set today, with Winnipeg tying a record for the day..

    A warm, Pacific airmass made its way across the Prairies today into Southern Manitoba bringing with it record breaking warmth. Most of the record highs were broken either late this morning or early this afternoon before a cold front swept into Southern Manitoba, bringing with it cooler temperatures and some light snow. Temperatures on Monday will be cooler than today, however the warm Pacific air will return Tuesday, allowing Southern Manitoba residents to enjoy a spring-like mid-February break in the typically long, cold grip of winter.

    Location record prev year began
    --------------------------------------------------------
    Pilot Mound...6.3..5.8..1983..1939
    Portage ..... 6.0..5.1..1983..1886
    Melita....... 5.4..3.3..2002..1993
    Gretna....... 4.8..4.2..2002..1956
    Winnipeg(tie) 4.2..4.2..1983..1873

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  8. We may have tied the record but it should go down in the books with an asterisk lol.. as we *just* barely tapped the warm sector for a couple hours ;)

    Btw I am surprised Gretna did not also set a record on that day back in 1983..

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  9. Actually Shaw Channel 48 doesn't put up the automated screen about warnings anymore. Unless it is right in the text of the forecast, it isn't shown. Strangely enought they still show mention it on their Chennel 9 at the bottom. Do you also notice that the current temperature always shown at the top of the screen on Chaneel 48 is not rounded off? Yesterday when the temperature was 1.8 degree, it only showed the temperature as 1. I wonder for how much longer this channel will even be around?

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  10. Hi Rob,

    Any idea how much snow fell last night?

    thanks

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  11. Mark..

    I measured a meager 1.2 cm in Charleswood from last night. 34 cm of snow on the ground.

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  12. latest GLB model from last night spreads snow into southern MB Thursday, continuing in the RRV Thursday night and tapering off Friday morning sometime. GFS has taken a further south and east track while the ECMWF has a stronger low over northern Minneosta late Thursday with heavier snow possible over southern MB, maybe even a mix of snow and rain near the Ontario border. Still lots of divergence among the models, so we'll have to wait for better consensus. Stay tuned..

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  13. Probably too early for a mention but another storm for early next week?

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  14. I can still remember when Video's weather channel was a camera panning left to right and back to left and right etc. on a series of round weather gauges showing temperature, wind speed and direction, and barometric pressure with no music. The last time Shaw tried to pull ch48 there was a hugh cry from the public mostly because folks would miss the "free" music. Shaw shud really pull the plug on this service and free up the space for something else.

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  15. that shud read VIDEON's not VIDEO is the first line.

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  16. Latest model runs tonight show minimal amounts of snow over southern MB with Thursday-Friday system. GLB has leading wave of snow mainly through Interlake areas, with little over the RRV and south. GFS has more widespread snow, but light amounts.

    Given track of system and associated cold air intrusion, I'm thinking about 2-5 cm for Winnipeg Thursday into Friday.. with blustery northerly winds developing.

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  17. Lovely spring day out there today.. got up to +3C in Winnipeg and the RRV, while downslope southwesterly winds helped boost the temperatures up to +5 to +8C mark over the western RRV and eastern slopes of the Riding Mtns. Hot spot in MB today was McCreary at +8.5C. Nice!

    Now we wait for the snow to move in late Thursday into Thursday night.. Looks like bulk of snow will track through the Riding Mtns/Interlake areas, but a few cm likely for Winnipeg and the RRV Thursday night with increasing north winds and falling temperatures.

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  18. The wind starting to come out of the west and the temp has gone up. Now +4. I stepped outside about 30 minutes ago and thought wow it feels warm even with the wind. Checked the temp and sure enough its gone up.

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  19. Yeah.. a lovely mid February evening out there. Felt more like mid April. Big change coming within 48 hours though.. latest guidance tonight giving RRV and SW MB a little more snow than earlier runs with perhaps 5 cm east to 10 cm west late Thursday through Thursday night along with increasing north winds and falling temperatures. Still too early to jump on the snowier bandwagon especially considering how much models have wavered on the placement and amount of snow with this thing... but it's something we'll have to continue to monitor.

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  20. Hi Rob,
    Still look like we are getting up to 10 cm tmr? Any thoughts on early next week? Weather network seems to think we are getting more snow.

    thanks

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  21. Rob!
    Do you expect any kind of weather warnings to go out for tomorrow for the very strong winds or snow and blowing snow???

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  22. I'm thinking that 10 cm will be on the upper range for Winnipeg.. maybe closer to 5, but I've been burned before this season so I'm not going to say 10 cm won't happen. The bulk of the snow is expected to move north of us through the Riding Mtns and Interlake regions, while we get some wrap around snow as the colder air works in later Thursday through Thursday night. RGEM has been most aggressive with amounts on the backside of the storm over the RRV with 5-10 cm noted.. while other guidance shows a little less. Worst of it should be from the rush hour tomorrow evening through Thursday night, with increasing winds giving blowing and drifting snow. I don't think we'll reach warning criteria for snowfall here in Winnipeg, but there could be a period of poor vsbys in snow and blowing snow Thursday night. Whatever the case, looks like winter driving skills will be put to the test once again from Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

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  23. BLOWING SNOW warning issued for all of southern Manitoba!
    Near blizzard conditions may develop this evening!!!

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  24. Rob,
    Check out Jeff Master's blog today!!
    Ever hear of a 100F temperature swing in 6 days!!!???? You will now!

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  25. 184
    WWCN11 CWWG 171613
    SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
    ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
    AT 10:13 AM CST THURSDAY 17 FEBRUARY 2011.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

    BLOWING SNOW WARNING FOR:
    =NEW= CITY OF WINNIPEG
    =NEW= STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
    =NEW= SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE
    =NEW= DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH
    =NEW= PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN
    =NEW= MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS
    =NEW= BISSETT - NOPIMING PROVINCIAL PARK - PINE FALLS
    =NEW= WHITESHELL - LAC DU BONNET - PINAWA
    =NEW= SPRAGUE - NORTHWEST ANGLE PROVINCIAL FOREST
    =NEW= BRANDON - CARBERRY - TREHERNE
    =NEW= MINNEDOSA - NEEPAWA - RUSSELL - RIDING MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
    =NEW= KILLARNEY - PILOT MOUND - MANITOU
    =NEW= MELITA - BOISSEVAIN - TURTLE MOUNTAIN PROVINCIAL PARK
    =NEW= VIRDEN - SOURIS
    =NEW= STE. ROSE - MCCREARY - ALONSA - GLADSTONE
    =NEW= ARBORG - HECLA - FISHER RIVER - GYPSUMVILLE - ASHERN.

    POOR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED LATE
    THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    ==DISCUSSION==
    AN INTENSIFYING STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER NORTH DAKOTA
    WILL TRACK INTO NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. SNOW WILL
    SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS SYSTEM
    APPROACHES. 5 TO 10 CM OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS OF
    SOUTHERN MANITOBA BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
    OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW, STRONG
    NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 70 KM/H WILL DEVELOP BY EVENING ON THE
    BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE COMBINATION OF THE FALLING SNOW AND
    STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE POOR VISIBILITIES OF LESS THAN 1 KM IN
    SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN RURAL AREAS.
    BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
    THIS EVENING IF THE STRONGEST OF THE WINDS MATERIALIZE. CONDITIONS
    WILL IMPROVE ON FRIDAY AS WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

    PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

    END

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  26. Blizzard warning issued for the manitoba lakes!!!

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  27. We sure have had a lot of forecasting changes in the last 12 hours. I was wondering if there is any place where the radar maps overlap into the US with ours. We get 65 percent of our weather from the US yet when you watch the radar maps they all either start at the US border or end at the US border.

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  28. Daryl Try the he TWN interactive radar on my name or at
    http://www.theweathernetwork.com/weather/maps/mb/camb0244?ref=qlink_obs_radar

    I've also used some of the Grand Forks and Bismark Radar on Robs radar page.
    For 4 or 5 years TWCs 600 mi and 1800 mi Doppler radar is another
    where there is a drop down menu for other radars below the map at the URL below

    http://www.weather.com/outlook/events/sports/map/USND0146?name=index_large_animated&day=1&from=LAPmaps&bypassredirect=true

    Jim

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  29. Thanks ANON

    I knew about the TWN but for some reason it does not match up with radar from North Dakota even though it shows numerous other places in the US. AT this moment US radar is showing the system down to the Bismark area but TWN shows it stopping at the border. The other site is interesting but of course basically stops around the Winnipeg area or becomes inaccurate just before.

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  30. Also NWS enhanced Radar image loop. This is a full resoution 3400 X 1700 looping CONUS (& some Ca) image
    Scroll across to ND/mb
    My Name or

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

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