Wednesday, September 15, 2010

Fall arriving early..

The official first day of fall is next Wednesday Sept 22nd.. but Mother Nature will be bringing in fall like weather a little early this year, as a sharp cold front pushes through southern Manitoba Thursday night. This front will usher in an unseasonably cool airmass from the northern Prairies Friday into the weekend, with temperatures only rising into the low teens along with brisk west to northwest winds. There's even a chance of some snow over northern Manitoba by Saturday as a low pressure system intensifies over the north. High pressure building in by Sunday morning will bring a good chance of widespread frost early Sunday across southern MB. Cool conditions are expected to persist into early next week along with an increasing threat of showers.


  1. I bet Dan GF is jumping for joy with all of this cool weather heading this way!

    Oh and Brent Anderson released some preliminary data on the winter months up ahead could be a cold one!


  2. Sunday morning still looking like the best chance for the season's first widespread frost across Winnipeg and the Red River valley. A couple of cool days coming up Friday and Saturday, but winds may be strong enough at night to prevent widespread frost development (except in sheltered valleys where winds decouple) Ridge builds in Saturday night into Sunday morning which will bring light winds and clear skies.. ideal conditions for frost for most places.

  3. Hey Daniel P....

    Yep...nice time of the year. Really excited this year as all indications I have read indicate a colder than usual one which suits my tastes. But we will see. I thought I read somewhere recently that the High Arctic had a very cold summer compared to normal.

  4. I heard that the high arctic had a very small amount of ice loss this summer compared to the past few years but I think they still had a normal summer!!!

  5. Ice loss in the Artic was reportedly greater than any other year as ice coverage started from an amount greater than the 10 year 1979 to 2000 average in April and ended Sept 10/10 as the second lowest (to 2007) Artic Ice coverage ever measured.

  6. Artic Ice Loss on my name here.

  7. 1979 to 2000 might have more than 10 years. In fact Jims previous post should read the 30 year 1979 to 2010 average

    The article does confirm that the melt is driven by local conditions as much or more than Global.

  8. One year ago we were worried about the wet fall and its implications for Spring Runoff.
    If those concerns were justified what concerns are inspired by this comparison of 09 and 10 precip maps

    These are pdf maps by EC and ACIS which can be downloaded and/or viewed in your browser.

    Prairie Precip April 1 to Sept 15/10

    ND Precip April 1 to Sept 16/10

    Last year these are the closest comparisons I can find Dan GWF do you have comparables for ND??

    Prairie Precip April 1 to Oct31/09

    Prairie Precip April 1 to Aug 31/09

  9. Oops posted to quicklyn previous post is Anon Jim


  10. Unseasonably cold out there today.. we're struggling to get to that high of 12C today with afternoon temperatures still in the single digits. Snowflurries being observed as far south as The Pas. Another system to our south is bringing wet snow to Montana. Yikes! We're surrounded by winter!

    Dewpoints are at or below freezing across southern MB this afternoon, so we have a good chance of frost by morning if skies remain clear and winds drop off. However, progs indicate brisk west winds persisting tonight across southern MB which may save us from a hard freeze. Even with the wind, we'll likely get close to 0C by morning. Sunday morning still looking like a widespread frost as winds drop off in the ridge.

  11. Rob!
    I think your right about the chance of even Winnipeg getting down to zero tonight!

    Enviornment Canada is calling for 30-50 km winds for tonight which may happen for most of the night but toward morning I think the winds could drop enough for temperatures to drop!

  12. Rob I notice that the 8:00am MB AG-WX MESONET on your OBS site has frost in all but a few locations near the Lakes or in the RRV.

    Is that the Valley effect or ??

  13. Jim..

    Most of the frost last night in southern MB was over western areas near the SK border which were closer to the ridge and lighter winds. Persistent winds of 15 to 25 km/h elsewhere across the south last night prevented frost development in most areas. Tonight, that ridge moves over the RRV so I expect more widespread frost tonight for most areas, except in the southwest where increasing clouds are expected.

  14. Thanks ROB,›I must have been viewing the DewPoints this am

  15. Anon --

    Regarding ND pcpn maps...

    After some searching...I did find maps from NDAWN (ND Ag wx network) which allows for mapping any dates versus just seasonal or monthly.

    We are wetter for sure apr 1 to sep 17 2010 than in 2009.

    Sorry about link names not sure how to change them on here :)

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