Sunday, October 18, 2009
Mild Sunday over southern MB
After an unseasonably cold first half of October, temperatures finally climbed to above normal values over southern MB today with afternoon highs of 15-20C under partly sunny skies. Winnipeg reached a high of 16C, with 20C temperatures recorded over southwest MB, mainly south of Highway 2 in places like Melita, Boissevain, Glenboro, Treherne as far east as Carman. In fact, Melita was the national hot spot today at 21.6C. It was even warmer south of the border with temperatures reaching a summerlike 80F (27C) in Bismarck ND. At Winnipeg, the 16C reading was the warmest day of the month so far, and the first day with temperatures in double digits since Oct 3rd. The mild weather will be short lived however as a cold front moves through tonight, dropping temperatures back into the single digits for the rest of the week.
Posted by rob at 4:40 PM
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A day to enjoy being a Pegger almost. That local football team could use some more of the nasty weather.ReplyDelete
Current Halloween Oct 31 forecasts are particularly nasty. Trick or treaters may be wet and cold.
Are those favorable 30 day forecasts supposed to arrive before Halloween?
Looks like near to slightly below normal for the next 10 days with daily highs around 6-9C.. No big warmups in sight at this point, but no big cold outbreaks indicated either..ReplyDelete
I noticed that some of the computer models are showing quite a few strong fall storms around the area in the next few weeks!
With daytime temperatures in the single digits ...overnight lows should be cold enough for some snow if any storms could pass over the area ( this upcoming Saturday)
ROB why have we not seen any northern lites this yearReplyDelete
Not sure.. Northern lights are tied to high solar activity, (magnetic storms, sunspots, etc) and right now, we're in a unusually low solar cycle with little or no sunspots being observed. Perhaps that's a factor...ReplyDelete
Not only that.. it's been generally overcast this October, so even if they were occurring, there would be little opportunity to see them..
Looking at the radar today you can see all the dry air eat away at the rain that is trying it's best to work into parts Southern Manitoba!ReplyDelete
It's like a protective barrier the rain cannot pass!!
When is the earliest freeze up date for Lake Winnipeg (Gimli Harbor)?
In 2009 Lake Winnipeg has cooled twelve degrees Celsius in the last 30 days. This is a 50 percent faster cooling rate than 2008.
On Sept 21 2009 Lake Winnipeg water Temp was 20C (16C on Sept 21 2008) and has now cooled to 8C (10C in 2008).
Oops S/B 100% Faster?ReplyDelete
Next week looks interesting to say the least!ReplyDelete
Looks like numerous Alberta clippers are set to cross the area starting tomorrow and continuing all of next week!
With each clipper set to drag down colder and colder air!!!
I don't have any lake freeze up stats.. I'm not sure if they are officially kept by anyone anymore. Normally it's the end of November into mid December.. but it can vary quite a bit depending on temperatures and wind.
Next week it looks like a nice push of arctic air is paying us a visit!ReplyDelete
Now if only we could get some system traversing the area we could get some snow!!!!
Bring on the snowstorms!!!!!!
We'll have to wait and see... models have been having difficulty resolving timing and intensity of storm systems that will be affecting the US Plains and the Canadian Prairies for next week. Main highlights to watch for will be the development of a Colorado low type system around the 27th-28th that is currently forecast to track east of us through the Great Lakes and into eastern Canada. Then we have a Pacific storm system that crosses the Rockies which may spread some rain or snow over southern MB for Halloween. Of course, the tracks and timing of those systems will likely change as models try to get a handle on this changeable pattern.ReplyDelete
Does anyone see potential for snow from Tuesday's system????ReplyDelete
Right now Environment Canada is calling for rain but with temperatures right around the +3 ....
GFS and GLB indicate a rain/wet snow mix for Tuesday changing to all snow Tuesday night with a few cm possible. Still too early to say how much depending on eventual timing and track of this clipper system, but the potential is there to wake up to some white stuff Wednesday morning.ReplyDelete
Further out, GFS indicating potential for Colorado low type snowstorm for SE MB/NW Ontario by Nov 1-2nd. We'll have to see how that trends over the next few days.. but it's looking like a stormy pattern setting up to our south next week.
Chris, Dan, Daniel, (P), GF Dan, Justin, Rob, or Scott, do you see any chance of significant Pcpn a week from today?ReplyDelete
Is there something worth keeping an eye on?
Seems a long way off to be precise, but Halloween (next Saturday) still looks very uncomfortable on at least one forecast. Temps -1 to -5 with E winds 12 to 15K and rain snow sleet a possibility late afternoon to early evening. A week ago TWN had basically the same forecast for Oct 31
Jim according to some of the modelsReplyDelete
such as ECMWF and GFS for example is showing a very strong storm somewhere between here in Southern Manitoba and Minneapolis!
The latest GFS is showing a Unbelievable storm in Minneasota next weekend!!
I know that models are gonna flip flop the next few days but looking at the upcoming weather pattern ....
Jim SOMEONE is gonna get a "HUGE" storm!
From what I see the best chance for precipitation will come on Tuesday/Wednesday. The models show a 50-60% chance of more than 5mm on those days. On the other hand, there is only a 20-30% chance of more than 5mm on Halloween.ReplyDelete
Well there is no shortage of cold air up in northern Canada!ReplyDelete
Some of the temperatures up in Nunavut are running well below normal
So you know it's only a matter of time before the arctic "flood gates" are opened!
Can anyone say Colorado Low next week?????ReplyDelete
The latest GFS is showing a "WHOPPER" of a storm somewhere in the area!
I guess time will tell!
The ECMWF and GFS are showing a powerful storm for late this week. The GLB is showing a weaker system and the Ensemble has the storm missing us altogether.ReplyDelete
Since the 12Z GFS is really the first run with this event on a big scale, I'm not at all sold on it. We'll have to watch for a trend in the models to see which way this goes.
GFS has been all over the place with the timing and track of that storm system for mid to late week. Definitely will have to see more run to run and model to model consistency before we get an idea how this thing may impact us..ReplyDelete
I'm floored at what some of the models are showing for week's end!ReplyDelete
That storm that COULD form in Colorado this week and head up into the plains is massive in size!
Also that cold air is looking to pay a visit sometime in the near future!
The ensemble is now on board with a system for late this week. It has roughly the same track as the GFS. However, the models are now showing this being a mostly rain event, with little if any snowfall occuring.ReplyDelete
Looks like one thing is becoming more certain with this potential storm.... it could be very very windy this upcoming weekend!ReplyDelete
These updates are looking very typical Halloweenish...volatile, nasty'n and not for the faint of heart. Like a year ago this past weekend.(10,25-6,08). 89K wind gusts w/3 meter waves and thunder,sleet,rain,or snow.ReplyDelete
Thanks as always for keeping us informed.
GFS maintains a strong system for Friday/Saturday as of 18Z run.ReplyDelete
Current forecast calls for 10 to 15mm of rain, followed by 10 to 15cm of snow in Steinbach. Winnipeg is a similar story, but with slightly lower amounts.
Looks like two systems in play for late week!ReplyDelete
One coming in from the Northern Prairies while the other coming in from Colorado merging in over Southern Manitoba!!
Interesting weather the next while for sure!
We are now seeing the low starting to slide further and further east into Ontario. Not surprising really, since this usually happens.ReplyDelete
Today will be critical in determining if this system will actually affect us. We may have seen the precipitation forecast peak yesterday, which would mean that this system is now going to start fading out of our forecast.
The GFS has already moved the bulk of the precipitation into Northern Ontario. The NAM still keeps a decent amount in Manitoba, but since some of the system is past the 84hr mark the NAM doesn't have a full handle on the situation. The GLB/GEM moves the bulk of the precipitation into N ON as well and the Ensemble has shifted eastward from yesterday also.
This all adds up to a negative scenario for us, but we'll have to see what today's runs bring.
What's your feelings on all of this Rob???ReplyDelete
You think we could get a big storm or will it be a big BUST????
The way models are trending, I don't think we'll get anything more than wind and some rain or snow Friday into Friday night. This storm system is forecast to deepen over NW Ontario Friday into Saturday after it merges with a low coming in from Alberta, which will provide the cold air injection required to get the storm going. Until then, the Alberta low actually prevents the deep cold air from feeding into the Colorado low which delays intensification until it's pretty much past us. For that reason, I'm sensing this storm will impact NW Ontario more than us.. which is fine by me. I would hate to get a Colorado low snowstorm this early!ReplyDelete
Keep in mind, model solutions for this event are changing with nearly every run.. Halloween was looking windy and cold, now the GFS is showing the storm moving out faster, with a ridge over southern MB Halloween evening giving cool but calm conditions. Still considerable uncertainty with the timing and intensity forecast of this system.
The most recent runs show the Colorado Low passing farther east, mainly impacting N ON, like Rob indicated. However, part of the low is forecast to impact South-Central and South-Eastern Manitoba with rain and wind.ReplyDelete
At this stage a major blizzard looks highly unlikely.
The model that shows a wind driven rain/snow event right over Southern Manitoba is the ECMWF!ReplyDelete
Those winds would be gusting to
80-90 km/h if that model run verifies!
I was in Tucson over the weekend and enjoyed a 30 °C plus temperature event. I could learn to live with events like that.ReplyDelete
Maybe this could be one of those storms where Environment Canada will have to do some "now -casting"ReplyDelete
By the way Winter Storm Watch issued for parts of southern North Dakota!
The NAM is now indicating the potential for 10cm of wet snow on the backside of the system for eastern Manitba...what a joy this system is to forecast.ReplyDelete
P.S. The NAM has also blown-up precip amounts from 1.5 to 2" for South-Central and South-Eastern Manitoba.
It looks like it is safe to say that a storm will impact the region from Thursday night into Friday night!ReplyDelete
All the models that I have seen show major rain event for the RRV and points east changing to a bit of accumulating snow as the cold air gets drawn in on Friday!
Winds also look to be an issue with gusts to 60 km/h!
It's fairly easy to tell the expected track of the heavy snowfall...just look at the NWS's watches and warnings.ReplyDelete
The GEM-GLB is indicating 15 to 20cm for SE MB, with 10 to 15cm for Winnipeg and the Morden region. I have reason to believe that the GEM's precip amounts are on the high side...in fact they are roughly twice as high as the NAM or GFS. However, the NAM had shown higher amounts similar to the GEM last night, so we will have to watch this situation.ReplyDelete
I'm going to keep an I on this one for a litte longer.ReplyDelete
Many years ago on Mar 4 66 following a slightly warmer week after one month of extremely cold temps a massive Colorado low was to brush by southern ND. and turn North thru Minnesota and Northwestern Ontario.
At literally the last minute it turned North thru ND and Southern MB and dumped 37 cms of Snow in Wpg. Wpg forecasters gave 2 hrs notice. With 120 km winds it buried 2 and 3 story commercial buildings (CKY TV at Polo Park) city buses and basically shutting the city down for 3 days. Although the storm started thursday night it was Monday before bus service was partially restored
The devastation in ND was so severe that 10s of thousands af livestock were stranded and frozen by the 120 KM winds. The leading GFK NWS meteorologist of the day wrote a book on the incident a few years ago.
Did I mention they are predicting 16 inches of snow today for Colorado.
Another blog on this network has a Mar 1966 blizzard picture taken of a train buried in ND at the top of their latest posting. Link on my name orReplyDelete
Thanks for the link Jim!ReplyDelete
Shows how 120 winds gusts create MASSIVE drifts!
Winter storm watch now for the devil's lake basin so I would imagine that there is a good chance that Environment Canada will be issuing special weather statement or watches later today?!
Either way this is gonna be a "TRICKY" forecast !!!
I used to like when you had the polls on your blog so we can vote on stuff like how much snow , or how much rain!
Would you ever bring them back???
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK NDReplyDelete
1212 PM CDT WED OCT 28 2009
...WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...
.A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH
MINNESOTA THURSDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY.
EXPECT MAINLY SNOW TO THE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT...
AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
AREAS FROM BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN...AND SOUTH TO SHIELDS AND
WISHEK. AREAS FROM DICKINSON...NORTHEAST THROUGH GARRISON AND
RUGBY...AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN...CAN EXPECT LESSER
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 8 INCHES. A NORTH WIND WILL INCREASE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS IN THE 40S. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES...AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
Latest 12z WRF shows Winnipeg on the edge of the heavy precip. Precip type looks like it'll definitely be in SNOW form. Def zone set up will be hard to forecast. It looks like Winnipeg might see a lot of snow...or none. Ahh...I love Colorado Lows. Too bad I'll have to watch it from the Edmonton sidelines. I'd rather be under it.ReplyDelete
I've seen this set up several times with the bulk of the storm system missing Southern Manitoba completely. One thing I can guarantee...strong winds!
Anyways...this storm is worth monitoring. Shifts in the track will determine where the heavy snow will fall.
Right now I'd say Fargo will get smoked off...maybe even Minneapolis!
Models are showing the potential for 10cm of snow for Winnipeg (that is maximum right now), with 40-50km/h sustained winds on Friday. Steinbach looks basically the same.ReplyDelete
Haven't had time to post too much on this upcoming storm.. will start a new thread soon! (To me, looks like rain for most of RRV and SE MB, with rain/snow line setting up over western RRV)ReplyDelete
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