Thunderstorms, heavy rain likely over southern MB this afternoon/tonight.. severe storms possible southeast

A sharp frontal zone over southeast MB today combining with a wave of energy moving in from the southwest will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms over southern MB today into tonight, with areas of heavy rain likely as well as the potential for locally severe thunderstorms with hail and strong winds mainly over SE Manitoba. Heavy downpours are likely with thunderstorms, with rainfall amounts of 20-40 mm in a short period possible over southern MB including the RRV. Locally higher amounts are possible where storms regenerate over the same area. The activity is expected to merge into a large area of heavy rain mainly north of Winnipeg through the Interlake regions tonight where 50-75 mm is possible by Tuesday.

Warm air returns Sunday mainly south and east of Winnipeg..

A sharp frontal zone over northern North Dakota brought cloudy skies and rain over the Red River valley today, keeping afternoon temperatures only in the mid teens.. some 15C cooler than 24 hours earlier. On Sunday, this frontal zone will move back north as a warm front to lie across southern Manitoba by afternoon. Current indications are that this frontal zone will lie just south and east of Winnipeg Sunday afternoon, with temperatures reaching 30C south of this boundary over the southern Red River valley and southeast Manitoba. (see Sunday afternoon NAM temperature forecast image) Temperatures will be sharply cooler north and west of this front, with highs only in the mid teens to 20C along with occasional showers. At this point, it looks like most of this shower activity should stay north of Winnipeg.. good news for the final day of the LPGA golf tournament. However, the frontal zone will be close enough to the city to keep a threat of some showers, along with temperatures in the low to mid 20s (if we get some sunshine, 20c if we stay cloudy) This frontal zone will become stalled over the Red River valley Sunday night into Monday night with showers and thunderstorms moving in giving the potential for locally heavy rain as storms "train" along the stalled frontal zone.

Windy and warm again then unsettled by Sunday..

Windy and warm weather is moving back into southern MB as an increasing southerly flow returns to the eastern Prairies. Today will see plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 20s as southerly winds pick up in the 30 km/h range. Friday will be even windier and warmer, with gusty south winds of 40 to 60 km/h pushing temperatures into the low 30s over the Red River valley. A weak front will pass through southern MB Friday night bringing slightly cooler but pleasant conditions Saturday along with light winds. By Sunday, low pressure developing over the western Dakotas will bring a warm front along the US border which will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. More showers and thunderstorms are likely by Monday as the main low moves across the border with cooler conditions moving in behind this system for early next week.

Increasing winds and heat for Sunday..

Perfect weather today will give way to more uncomfortable conditions Sunday as a strong southerly flow of hot and more humid air spreads into southern Manitoba. A developing low pressure system over Montana will push a warm front across southern MB overnight into Sunday morning with a few thunderstorms likely along the front, especially north and west of Winnipeg. As the warm front pushes north, gusty southerly winds of 40 to 60 km/h will develop over southern MB Sunday tapping a very warm airmass over the Northern US plains. Temperatures of 32-35C are likely across southern MB and the RRV by Sunday afternoon, with humidex values of 40-43C. The hot and windy conditions will continue through Sunday evening with temperatures likely remaining near 30C through midnight. A sharp cold front will cross southern MB Monday bringing showers and thunderstorms along with cooler temperatures.

Cool start to the week.. warming up by the weekend ..

Cool temperatures will dominate the weather picture over southern MB over the next few days before a nice warm-up by the weekend. Today at least will feature sunshine which will offset the below normal temperatures. For Tuesday, a quick moving clipper system will bring increasing clouds and a few showers across southern MB, with temperatures only in the upper teens. This system will clear out Tuesday night with sunshine returning Wednesday but a continuation of below normal temperatures. Thursday should start to see some moderation in the weather pattern with warmer air moving in for Friday as temperatures climb back to normal. The weekend is looking summer-like again with highs close to 30C along with increasing humidity and a threat of thunderstorms.