Monday, August 16, 2010
Cool start to the week.. warming up by the weekend ..
Cool temperatures will dominate the weather picture over southern MB over the next few days before a nice warm-up by the weekend. Today at least will feature sunshine which will offset the below normal temperatures. For Tuesday, a quick moving clipper system will bring increasing clouds and a few showers across southern MB, with temperatures only in the upper teens. This system will clear out Tuesday night with sunshine returning Wednesday but a continuation of below normal temperatures. Thursday should start to see some moderation in the weather pattern with warmer air moving in for Friday as temperatures climb back to normal. The weekend is looking summer-like again with highs close to 30C along with increasing humidity and a threat of thunderstorms.
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Yesterday's high of only 14.7C in Winnipeg set a new record low maximum temperature for Aug 15th. Previous coolest maximum was 16.1C in 1951.
ReplyDeleteKind of surprised there's no mention of at least a chance of showers tomorrow in Winnipeg.. all models show clipper moving in with some showers moving in from the northwest. Current satpix and radar confirm activity upstream.
There is now. 30% chance for Winnipeg with higher probability south of Winnipeg. Straight out showers with 20 mm expected near the US border.
ReplyDeleteStorm Prediction Center is indicating a slight risk for North Dakota!
ReplyDeleteYet it is so cool and showery for today and dewpoints so low in the single digits!!!
Severe weather so close is quite surprising!!!
T/Td of 24/14 at Pierson in extreme SW corner while its only 10 C at Minnedosa with NE wind and clouds.. locally it is 23 C as near as Hallock. Maybe another record low maximum temperature today? Some clearing skies off to our north in the colder air building down, but may not be enough to lift temperatures. Morning lows in the 3/4 C range in NW Minnesota and I'm sure there were some 1/2 C readings in the SE this morning... this is getting ridiculous.
ReplyDeleteSome warm advection precip brushing us to the NE while models show surface based convection firing up along the cold front in N Dakota this evening... limiting factor would be moisture return with 15 C and higher dewpoints down in S Dakota.
T/Td at Grand Forks:
ReplyDelete28/15 ... beautiful summer's day
13 C at YWG... are you kidding me?
Seems like the Americans knew something we didn't when the 49th parallel was designated the border for western Canada lol
A low of 5 C tonight for Winnipeg!!!
ReplyDeleteIf things could get a little colder then records might be broken!!!
Watch your gardens/crops overnight as temps come close to freezing, a little too close for comfort for me!
ReplyDeleteRob you've often commented on the official EC Winnipeg Temperature Site as the coldest location locally. Your current Link to Winnipeg Area Temperatures at 10am shows this emphatically.
ReplyDeleteWINNIPEG AREA MAP
EC Airport is 7C
Robs-Obs Site 17C
Waverly 20C
Don.
ReplyDeleteIt was actually 16C at the airport at 10 am, not 7C.. I think the map didn't update the airport temperature for some reason.
Current forecast for Sunday calls for a high of 29C in Winnipeg and the RRV.. but it could be more like 32-35C if the GFS is correct. Good southerly flow with a wedge of 22-27C air at 850 mb moving into the RRV Sunday, would translate to low to mid 30s over southern MB. Could be the hottest day of the year.. It'll be short lived however as sharp cold front pushes through Monday.
ReplyDeleteHi everyone
ReplyDeleteThe Univ of North Dakota is running a local 3 km, 9 km and 27 km WRF-ARW model. Here is a link below. This is very new and they are still testing it and tweeking it. So I caution its use in real time forecasting....but we are starting to check it out and see how it does. Right now it does temp/wind/pressure, reflectivity, precipitation, 850 mb rh and wind. and forecast gfk sounding out to 36 hrs (fcst every 3 hours).
http://people.aero.und.edu/~gretchen/forecast/
I put the link for the UND model in my name as well...just learning to do this...
ReplyDeleteThanks for the link Dan.. will be interesting to see how it performs.
ReplyDeleteI also see you guys have posted your fall outlook (click my name) Glad to see that the concensus is for above normal temps this fall!
Our local guy is going for a wet and warm fall then a cold and snowy winter.... i.e. flood next spring
ReplyDeleteIt appears the shores of lake Winnipeg will take a severe pounding this fall.
ReplyDeleteThe ROBS-OBS Link to the Prairie Drought Watch map (my Name) of >120mm above average rain since April 1st looks almost identical to the Canadian Portion of the
Lake Winnipeg drainage area map
DAN With more fall rain, a la Nina cold Winter and a late spring Fargo might want to start digging that diversion soon.
Rob, whats your take on the tstorm potential this weekend? The cap will be in place but will it blow off is the question.
ReplyDeleteone word: SUPERCELL!
ReplyDeletecell just broke cap,warnings on it.
Some storms on the west side of the city that have rapidly formed!
ReplyDeleteSure is humid out there!
Severe thunderstorm warning out for the city. Quarter to loonie size hail possible! All I've gotten here is just some plain old rain with the odd rumble at times.
ReplyDeleteSevere Thunderstorm Warning for City of Winnipeg Issued.
ReplyDeleteHeavy downpour here in Charleswood.. big fat drops, but no hail. About 6 mm of rain in 10 minutes. Nice rainbow to the east now with skies clearing west..
ReplyDeleteWow.. you can really see that extensive layer of smoke over AB and SK on the visible satellite imagery now that the sun is setting in the west. Looks like some of it is pushing into western MB this evening. Western city webcams really show the smoke well.. in particular the Banff cam is especially noticeable. Our sunny day tomorrow might be a little hazy due to smoke aloft..
ReplyDeleteNo I don't see much of a thunderstorm threat over southern MB this weekend.. way too warm aloft, especially Sunday. There could be some elevated thunderstorms on the warm front Saturday night into Sunday morning, but those will likely be well north of us through the Interlake or central MB.
ReplyDeleteSunday looks hot and windy with gusty south winds of 40 to 60 km/h up the Red River valley. High temperatures likely in the low 30s over Winnipeg and the RRV, with mid 30s possible over SW MB. The hot temperatures will continue well into the evening with a gusty south wind persisting after sunset, and 850 mb temps still in the mid 20s. That could give us 30C temperatures well up to midnight or so. Note that the low on Monday is 22C, oddly enough the same as the high. This is just poor computer programming which indicates the high temperature will be below 22C in the afternoon as temperatures fall behind a cold front. We could see thunderstorms then, but the timing is not good for something severe.. unless it slows down until evening.
We got hail here! We were parked outside Garden City mall waiting for it to stop. Not sure what size, but a friend of mine said some of the pieces she collected in her yard afterward were twoonie sized. Most of what I saw... maybe quarter sized? Not sure really, but it was fun and totally unexpected.
ReplyDeleteJust North of the city at perimeter and McPhillips. It was not fun. Hail at least the size of golf balls and all the vehicles are damaged, the roof damaged. That storm is going to cost a bit.
ReplyDeleteThe lightning in that storm to the north this evening was really quite impressive.
ReplyDeleteoh my gosh yesterday (august 20,2010) was wicked up in victoria beach we had a huge thunderstorm roll in by 10 pm with vivid constant strobe lightning with heavy rain and wind. It lasted a full hour. We even lost power because of all the lightning. Never seen a storm like that in years!
ReplyDelete