Thursday, August 26, 2010

Windy and warm again then unsettled by Sunday..

Windy and warm weather is moving back into southern MB as an increasing southerly flow returns to the eastern Prairies. Today will see plenty of sunshine with highs in the upper 20s as southerly winds pick up in the 30 km/h range. Friday will be even windier and warmer, with gusty south winds of 40 to 60 km/h pushing temperatures into the low 30s over the Red River valley. A weak front will pass through southern MB Friday night bringing slightly cooler but pleasant conditions Saturday along with light winds. By Sunday, low pressure developing over the western Dakotas will bring a warm front along the US border which will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday night. More showers and thunderstorms are likely by Monday as the main low moves across the border with cooler conditions moving in behind this system for early next week.
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8 comments:

  1. rob5:26 PM, August 26, 2010

    Tomorrow has the potential to be warmer than the forecast high of 31C in Winnipeg. Good wedge of 24-27C air at 850 mb moving in over the RRV Friday, with limited surface moisture and a trend towards a southwesterly surface flow by late day. This could translate to 32-35C for Winnipeg and the RRV. Looking at temperatures upstream today, there's quite a few readings in the mid to upper 30s to our west in SK, AB and Montana..

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  2. daniel P8:29 PM, August 27, 2010

    This summer has turned out pretty good!
    Remember back in June we thought that this could be a repeat of the past 2 years!

    Well July and August have really been nice!

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  3. rob9:52 PM, August 27, 2010

    Yeah.. after a rather unsettled start to the summer, July and August have been fairly nice overall. Now if we can continue the trend into September, I'd be very happy :)

    BTW, that forecast high of 30C for Winnipeg on Sunday looks dicey. Sharp warm front along the ND border tries to push back north Sunday.. but may stall just to the south and east of Winnipeg. There will be a sharp temperature discontinuity across this front with 30-32C temperatures over the southern RRV/SE MB, while highs struggle in the low 20s northwest of Winnipeg with showers. If the front pushes north of Winnipeg, then 30C is possible with some sunshine. If not, we'll stay cloudy and low to mid 20s at best. Will be interesting to see where this warm front actually ends up Sunday.. but forecast high temperatures can easily bust 5-10 degrees depending on the actual frontal position.

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  4. daniel P8:22 AM, August 28, 2010

    Well Environment Canada is now calling for 31 C.
    I guess their pretty confindent that the warm front will make it this far north!

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  5. Jim9:51 AM, August 28, 2010

    That strong TS currently in Turtle Mountain SW of Brandon looks like it will be in Winnipeg by 1pm.

    The TWN (Beta}Radar for early this afternoon is showing a significant TS starting around noon.

    Are there any warnings associated with it?

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  6. rob10:09 AM, August 28, 2010

    That 31C Sunday is based on the GEM model which is the most aggressive model in pushing the warm front north of Winnipeg. The NAM and ECMWF are less aggressive in pushing the warm front north of us, and instead push it to just southeast of Winnipeg by afternoon.. which keeps the warm sector over the southern RRV and SE MB. That would keep temperatures around 21-24c for Winnipeg. It will be very close though as Steinbach could see 30C temps while Winnipeg is 5-10C cooler. As I mentioned, there will be a very sharp temperature discontinuity across this front which increases the potential for major temperature forecast busts near the front.

    One thing's for sure.. it will be much cooler just north and west of Winnipeg Sunday. It's highly unlikely that Portage and Gimli will be hitting 30C tomorrow.. they may be more like 20C.

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  7. daniel P8:20 PM, August 28, 2010

    Talk about a BUST!

    I'm talking about today!
    Today was supposed to be 25 C and 30% chance of showers!

    What happended was an all day rain and a high of 16 C!
    OUCH!

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  8. rob11:04 PM, August 28, 2010

    Yeah.. turned out a lot wetter and cooler than we thought, much to the chagrin of anyone looking forward to outdoor activities today (including the LPGA tournament) Hopefully it's drier tomorrow as the front shifts north and the best forcing lifts north of Winnipeg.

    By the way, my station has stopped updating due to a computer problem. Will try to get if fixed over the next day or two..

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