Saturday, November 11, 2017

Milder week ahead.. but changes loom for late week

After a frigid start to November, the weather pattern is expected to moderate this upcoming week with temperatures more typical of mid November. The first 10 days of the month have averaged -8.8C in Winnipeg, some 7C below normal for the time period, and the 7th coldest start to November since records began in 1872. The past week featured the coldest Nov 9th on record when the temperature fell to -23.7C at Winnipeg airport, with a record low maximum of only -11.4C. This cold start is in sharp contrast to November 2016, which had the warmest start to November on record at +7.0C, an astonishing 16C warmer than this year!


The good news is that temperatures will be a lot more tolerable this week as the persistent Arctic airmass moves off allowing milder air to move in. Conditions look pleasant for the Bombers game Sunday with partly sunny skies and afternoon temperatures near -5C with light winds. Milder temperatures will move in for the new week with temperatures climbing above freezing by Tuesday (high of +2C)  Generally seasonal temperatures are expected through mid week (highs near freezing) before a storm system moves in Friday bringing windy and colder conditions by next weekend.  Until then, enjoy the milder weather this week!  

12 comments:

  1. Looking at this data, it's simply interesting to see that the second coldest first 10 days of November (1936) occurred 4 months after Winnipeg's most intense heatwave on record (July 1936).

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    1. That year was also the only time Winnipeg has hit -20C in October. 1936 was a mixed bag of a year. The winter of 1935-36 was incredibly cold, March and April were cold, than the pattern flipped in May and in July Winnipeg had the incredible heatwave of 1936. It got colder again in the Fall.

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  2. Rob. Does it look like we will be returning to persistent cold again next after the system next week?

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    1. Models fairly consistent in developing a large scale pattern change in the later third of November (21st onwards) with a large upper ridge over the western continent. This would bring above normal temperatures and likely erode some of our snowpack. I for one would like a little break from the cold! Hopefully this materializes!

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    2. Looks like the next shot of colder air next weekend will not be as prolonged or as cold as last week's cold snap. As noted above, models are trending towards milder weather again after the 21st but tough to say how long at this point. I think this is showing that the rest of November will be more of a variable pattern over us with intermittent cold and mild spells, rather than persistent cold through the rest of the month.

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    3. Well that’s disappointing. I hope this isn’t a turn towards yet another warm winter... why can’t we just stay cold now...

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  3. We already have the spot for 15th coldest November after the first 10 days, incredible. This month is going to be in the top 30 coldest I think

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  4. Updated the graphic.. First 10 days of Nov 2017 have averaged -8.8C for 7th coldest start to Nov on record (not 4th as earlier stated) Sorry for the error. Gist remains the same.. a crazy swing from last year.

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    1. Rob, what’s the outlook through the end of the month?

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    2. Looks generally on the colder side of normal.. although there will be a couple days near or above normal as we briefly modify with passing clippers.

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    3. Thanks. No significant snowfalls anytime soon?

      Rob, what is your prediction for the winter ahead?

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  5. Clipper system tracks through Interlake tomorrow bringing a brief warmup to southern MB as gusty southwest winds push our temperature above the freezing mark (+1C) by afternoon. Could be a band of snow and/or freezing rain ahead of the warm front Monday morning, but accums look minimal over southern MB (the 2-4 cm snow forecast for Winnipeg tomorrow looks overdone according to most guidance. Bulk of snow will be associated near and north of the clipper system through the Interlake and central MB). As the system tracks east towards Ontario later in the day, winds will shift into the northwest and increase to 40G60-70 kmh by evening over southern MB, with temperatures falling below freezing along with occasional snowshowers and local blowing snow at times. Road conditions will become slick as the melting conditions of the afternoon quickly freeze up Monday evening. We could see a cm or 2 of snow in the wraparound behind the clipper system before things clear out by Tuesday morning. Colder conditions through mid week before a brief moderation again by late week with another clipper system.

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