Happy Canada Day! Canada is 150 years old today, founded back on July 1st 1867, and celebrations marking the milestone event will be held throughout the country. In southern MB, skies on Canada Day will likely start off cloudy as a disturbance tracks across southwest MB into North Dakota tonight into Saturday. This system will spread a few showers across SW Manitoba tonight and into the Red River valley overnight into Saturday morning. The bulk of showers will likely be mainly south of Winnipeg, but there is the chance the city may see some showers Saturday morning. The system should be out of southern MB by midday leaving a mix of sun and cloud Saturday afternoon along with a northerly breeze of 20 km/h. Temperatures will be on the cool side of normal with highs around 21C, a few degrees shy of the average of 25C for July 1st, but quite comfortable for outdoor activities. There is the chance of some isolated showers popping up Saturday afternoon with daytime heating, but most areas should be rainfree for Canada Day festivities. Skies will be clearing by Saturday evening, with ideal conditions for fireworks at 11 pm.. although a little on the cool side with temperatures near 15C by that time. The rest of the holiday weekend is looking good with sunshine on Sunday and highs of 24C and 27C by Monday under partly sunny skies and increasing southerly winds.
Pattern change will bring increasing heat over western Canada and Prairies first half of July
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| Large upper ridge building over western Canada next week will bring increasing heat over the Prairies, especially west |
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| 850 mb temperature anomaly shows core of heat next week will be over western Canada with highs of 30-35C |
Models keep backing off on the big heat expanding into southern MB this week and next. Although we warm up, it appears the sustained 30+C heat will be mainly west of us over Alberta, SK, and into Montana and western ND. These areas have the best chance of seeing sustained temps in the 30s this week, with 40C likely in some spots by next weekend. Here in Winnipeg, looks like Tuesday will be our hottest day this week with highs near 30C, then a front pushes through with scattered tstorms likely, followed by cooler weather (25C) for the rest of the week. Latest guidance has the upper ridge flattening out a bit next week instead of building east over MB, which would mean more normal temps for us next week (25-27C) and periodic tstorm activity with "ridge rider" tstorms, rather than a prolonged period of hot dry weather. We may get a hot day or two (30-33C) as we tap some hotter air from the west on occasion, but these will be brief hot spells rather than a prolonged heat wave. This will be a more acceptable scenario for most people, but personally I would love a stretch of 35-40C weather.. just for a few days. Personally it's my favourite type of weather, but I'm likely in the minority on that. Anyways, that's the way it looks right now.. we'll see if models continue with this scenario or flip back to a hotter solution for us. Either way, looks like western Canada is really going to bake this upcoming week..
ReplyDeleteIn case you're wondering what happened to our sunny Sunday, it's been hijacked by a large area of low cloud and fog that developed overnight over the southern Interlake and RRV in that surface ridge. We should see some sunny breaks today, but it's not looking as sunny as I was hoping. And tomorrow isn't looking as sunny either as an area of weak instability moves in. What does it take to get a nice stretch of sunny clear weather around here?!
ReplyDeleteThis is a cool summer. You typically do not get prolonged periods of heat in a cool summer. Plus we never get sunny days around here this year so pretty hard to get warm in that scenario. Our struggles to even get 25C in the past 3 weeks is mind boggling considering that should easily be attainable at this time of the year. If you want the warmer weather gotta go out west. It's been that way for a large chunk of 2017 and it appears That's not gonna change anytime soon. The way It's going we'll be lucky if we see 30C again this year.
ReplyDeleteIt is very rare in these parts that we get that kind of heat especially for prolonged periods anyways.
ReplyDeleteThis is not a hot climate around here after all.
Also another thing to note, we may be headed for an El Nino later this year which would in part somewhat explain this cool summer here this year. Typically before an El Nino event, the summer is cooler.
Unfortunately an El Niño will mean yet another warm winter. I hate warm winters. I want a cold one for the history books like we had in 2013-14
ReplyDeleteWhen looking at 30C days in Winnipeg since 1873, the city has averaged about 13 days of 30C or more in the 3 month period of June, July and August. Looking at the moving 10 year average, the average number of 30C summer days peaked in 1941 at around 20 days after a series of hot summers in the 1930s. That averaged dropped to 11 days by 1950 and has stayed pretty much steady at 10-13 days since then (although the average rose slightly to 16 in 1991 after some hot summers in the late 80s) After the Pinatubo eruption in 1991, we had 3 cool summers in a row from 1992-1994 before we returned to a hot summer in 1995. Since 2000, summers here have been very erratic.. ranging from very cool (like 2004 and 2009 which saw only 2 or 3 30C days during JJA) to quite hot like 2006 and 2012 (23 and 21 30C days respectively) The past 3 summers have had less than ten 30C days in the June to August period, and it's very unusual to go 4 summers in a row with less than 10 30C days (hasn't happened since the early 1900s). Hopefully that means we see some 30C heat this month and next.. but as I said, our summer weather pattern seems to have become more erratic in the past 20 years or so.
ReplyDeleteThat's interesting how we average less +30C days than in the 1940's. There seems to be no specific trend regarding summers and you are just as likely to get a cool summer as you are to get a hot one. Winters on the other hand are warming significantly and -30C days are becoming much rarer. Some winters in the late 1800's had over 50 -30C days and now we only get a couple of them each winter.
DeleteRob, is there any potential for severe weather at any point this week in Southern Manitoba/RRV?
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Tuesday afternoon/evening looks like a potential for severe tstorms over srn MB/RRV.. as a front pushes through on a hot and muggy day. Temps will be close to 30C with dewpoints near 20C, so there should be ample energy for some good storms to develop especially with a trigger coming at max heating time. Shear however is weak, so storms may not last long or may not be that severe, however they may produce locally torrential rain (25-50 mm), with small hail and strong downburst winds. No guarantee however that everyone will see them either.. but potential is there.
DeleteRob, I've heard rumblings of potential nocturnal convection overnight tonight in the Winnipeg area. What are your thoughts on this?
ReplyDeleteI haven't looked and it closely but I think it's a pretty small risk. There might be an isolated storm somewhere over the southern Interlake or nrn RRV ahead of a warm front, but the chances of one actually hitting Winnipeg look pretty low.
DeleteWell, elevated tstorms firing up nicely this morning mainly along and north of the TransCanada. A few storms just entering Winnipeg city limits especially over northern part of city this morning. More bands firing up to our west. So our hot and sticky day will be interrupted this morning with this elevated convection before we turn sunnier and hotter this afternoon. Potential for late day severe storms still in play.
DeleteLooks pretty toasty tomorrow in southern Manitoba including Winnipeg. I think we have a good shot of exceeding our forecast high of 28C.. more like 30-32C. On top of that, dew points will be climbing towards the 20°C mark and possibly a bit higher, which would produce humidex values be approaching 40 in many spots, incl Winnipeg. That will set the stage for possible severe thunderstorms later the day into the evening
ReplyDeleteRob, are severe thunderstorms again possible later tomorrow in Southern Manitoba/RRV.
ReplyDeleteI would say the severe storm threat for Winnipeg and points west is diminishing at this point for this evening.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened tonight? Other than a wind change it was like nothing at all materialized from that cold front. So disappointing when all the factors are there for good storms and nothing just happens
ReplyDeleteStorms developed on the front east of Winnipeg in the late afternoon.. with some strong to severe storms over the Whiteshell region. Front went through Winnipeg a couple hours too early (around 3 pm) for us to get in on the action. That's the way it goes with tstorms.. all the ingredients have to come together at the right time to get the good storms.
DeleteSo basically yesterday Winnipeg had more action in the morning from elevated thunderstorms which were not forecast, and then nothing in the afternoon when they were forecast. Convective forecasting remains a challenging and frustrating exercise when it comes to trying to figure out what will happen at a specific point..
Thanks for the explanation rob. How come the timing of the front was too early for storms to develope? Couldn't they have still happened anyways? Just seems strange with all the heat and humidity it still wasn't enough because of a few hours too early. You think enough daytime heating was there.
DeleteProbably capped with all that warm air in the low levels which kept a lid on thunderstorm initiation until later in the day. It's still a guessing game as to when that cap will break on any given day.. sometimes it's earlier, sometimes later, sometimes it doesn't break at all and you end up with a lot of disappointed storm chasers. Breaking the cap depends on strength of the trigger (e.g. front), erosion of the warm nose, or enhanced lift to overcome the cap. But it's a tough thing to forecast accurately until you see signs of convection bubbling up on satellite (or seeing it yourself outside)
DeleteI'm super disappointed with the weather situation tonight. The skies were basically clear all evening. What happened to our high risk of severe storms?
ReplyDeleteThey developed east of the city. There was a chance the storms would develop after the cold front passed through Winnipeg and that's what happened. It wasn't the bust so many are advertising.
DeleteWe've only had one 30C day so far this year... many days have come close at 29C though. Rob what's the least number of 30C days ever seen in a summer before?
ReplyDeleteOnly 1 in the summer of 1905 (June thru August), and 2 in 2004. The most ever 30C days in a summer (JJA) was 33 in 1961.
DeleteThank you for the response rob. If we didn't get another 30C day this year we would tie the record then.
DeleteHigh of 28C forecast for Winnipeg tomorrow (Friday). Seems about 3C too high.. all guidance I'm seeing is suggesting similar temps as today, maybe even a touch cooler...around 25C or so. Still could see a shower overnight but should be clearing in the morning and then it's smooth sailing right though the weekend!
ReplyDeleteHigh for today was lowered to a more reasonable 25C. Couldn't see where that 28C came from.. nothing indicating today would be any warmer than yesterday (max 25.7C)
DeleteMax of 24.5C at Winnipeg airport Friday.
DeleteRob is the heat going to build in again next week? Looking at highs of 30+ again next week?
ReplyDeleteWe just can't seem to beat the 30 mark this year... only one 30C day and that was June 2nd.. lol.
The core of the heat wave will be over western Canada this weekend as the strong upper ridge remains parked over the Rockies.. so look for a scorching few days out west with temps in the 35-40C range over interior BC, srn AB and SW SK. The ridge flattens out a bit next week across the Prairies before it rebuilds a little further east over Sask later in the week. If that happens, some of that western heat would start to move into southern MB by the end of next week, with extreme heat possible by next weekend. Now, models have been struggling with how this upper ridge pattern would unfold next week, so I'm still not confident this scenario will pan out. We'll have to see if models stay the course, or back off again. Just for fun, today's 12Z ECMWF was showing a high of 36C for Winnipeg next Friday and 39C next Saturday. We'll see if they stick with that solution in the days ahead.. It may not get that hot here, but I do think we'll be seeing some 30C weather later next week.
DeleteThere's no way it'll get to 39C here. That's pretty much impossible. Wouldn't that be something if we hit 40C though, it's only happened 3 times before.
DeleteI can't wait until winter... I hope the snow comes early this year! Although unfortunately that doesn't seem to be the trend. Both in 2015 and 2016 the snow came several weeks late.
Matthew.. I agree that 39C is not likely here next weekend, but it's certainly possible if that heat ridge builds east. The most likely time for upper 30C temps here would be early July into early August when the sun is still strong, and we can tap some extreme heat from our southwest. We've been as hot as 38.8C as late as Sept 1st! (1983)
DeleteThat's true but I honestly doubt it will get that hot. History shows that the 40C mark is extremely hard to reach. It's only happened 3 times 2 of which were during the 1936 heat wave. Although we've seen 37C-39C multiple times over the years. Winnipeg typically does not get this hot though.
DeleteI posted a curious question below this comment at the bottom of this thread. I was curious about why North Dakota tends to be so much hotter than us at all times of the year given that they aren't that much further south.
Bismarck is forecasted to reach the mid to upper 30's every single day for the next 2 weeks. How come we run like 7-10 degrees cooler all the time
DeleteMatthew.. Bismarck is over 400 km southwest of us (directly) and over 3 degrees latitude further south. That may not seem like much, but it can make a big difference in temperatures. They also have a drier climate than us, so they tend to heat up more easily than areas which have more moisture.
DeleteThank you for the reply Rob. Yes indeed they are often much warmer than us. They've hit 23C in February before! Something that's unheard of here. If I can recall correctly during winter 2015-16 they had their warmest winter ever. Their annual mean is around 6C. Or 3 degrees warmer than here.
DeleteWe don't really have a wet climate do we?
What are long term indications for late July or into August? Is there a way I can access these models myself too?
Matthew.. the best long range guidance is output by NOAA's CPC in the US. They post 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks daily, snd 3-4 week outlooks every Friday. They also produce monthly and seasonal outlooks. Their outlook maps can be obtained from my website at. https://www.aweathermoment.com/robs-obs/robsobs/maps.htm#LONG
DeleteThanks rob I'll take a look at those. I've seen the CPC maps but aren't they just for the US?
DeleteYes they are.. but you can extrapolate the maps into southern MB to give you a pretty good idea of what to expect here.
DeleteI took a look at them and they are predicting warm fall and average to slightly above average winter. Isn't it too early to make those predictions yet?
DeleteI wouldn't be surprised if it was another warm fall and winter. I just wish we'd get a cold one for once.
Rob how come some areas in North Dakota are so much hotter than us? Bismarck is forecasted to reach 38 on Sunday and close to 40 next weekend while we are always 5-10 degrees cooler than them. They also get later falls and earlier springs. I'm glad we aren't as warm as them but I'm just curious, what allows them to the way more heat than we do even though they aren't that much further south.
ReplyDeleteRob, is there a threat of severe thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba on Tuesday?
ReplyDeleteAt this point, it looks like the main risk of severe tstorms if any on Tuesday will be mainly south of the intl border, perhaps slipping into srn RRV into SE MB. Looks like there's going to be a lot of cloud and some showers which will keep our severe threat lower here. However, if there is more sun that breaks out, the severe risk could increase over portions of RRV in the afternoon/early evening. Tough to say at this point.
DeleteSaskatchewan under huge thunderstorm threat tomorrow. Wish we'd get some of the action here. Rob how many T-storm days have been recorded so far? I think we may be in the running for least storm days ever.
ReplyDeleteWe've had 9 thunderstorm days at the airport so far this year. That's slightly below normal (about 12-13 by now) and certainly not a record which is less than 5 up to this date. Also 9 TS days at my place in the south end so far this year.
DeleteThat's interesting because I only remember like 3 or 4 thunderstorms so far this year. It seems like it'll be another year of below normal storm activity unfortunately.
DeleteOff topic, but does anyone know much about a location in the Northwest Territories called Fort Good Hope?
ReplyDeleteIt's not uncommon that I'll see this specific location as a hot spot up there. I've even seen it as a Canadian hot spot during certain evenings in the summer. Temperatures in July and August have often climbed into the 33 to 35 range.
Is there something special about this location that causes it to warm to such a level so often given its northern location?
One thing I do notice is that the NWT and the Yukon often have temperatures in the 20's and sometimes even the 30's in the summer. Some places summers up there are just like ours! Nunavut on the other hand had temperature close to freezing all summer! I wonder what the difference is!
DeleteI saw that Fort Good Hope place as the Canadian hot spot tonight at around 29.4C or so. Hotter than we got today!
DeleteRob I visited your new website which is hosted on A Weather Moment. Many of the links lead to the old shaw website which has been retired. Will some of the links and features on your website ever be restored?
ReplyDeleteCan you tell me which links you'r referring to?
DeleteRob I will put together a list . Ive noticed it as well
DeleteDonsense
One thing I noticed is that the monthly precipitation page and normals links to the old shaw members site. I'll try and find the other ones and let you know too.
DeleteOK thanks for pointing those out. I'll try to update those links when I get a chance..
DeleteThunder starting here in the st James area at 1AM. I think I hear rain beginning to fall.
ReplyDeleteRob what's happening with our heat wave? We just can't crack 30C. Our big rainstorm was a busy with only about 10mm here. It looks like increasing heat this weekend but they just keep pushing back the 30C temps. Looks like slightly above normal conditions will continue but will the big heat move in soon? Any major changes to below normal or active Weather in the future?
ReplyDeleteThat upper ridge that has been baking the west has reestablished itself over western Canada again instead of building east over us as some models were hinting. As a result, we haven't been able to tap into that intense heat that has been persistent over the west. I'm surprised though that we haven't even reached 30C once during this entire time.. I thought for sure we'd get at least 2 or 3 days of 30C weather over this 2 week span. We may come close tomorrow and Monday, but then it's back to mid 20s next week as the upper ridge flattens out.
DeleteI have a feeling we may not hit 30C anymore this summer. Which will mean just one day. Wow. Though we still have more than 2 months to reach it again.
DeleteWhat's the long range look like? Any cool downs or warm ups or just the same old mid 20's and dry for the rest of the month?
Once the ridge breaks down is it gone for good this time?
Rob is there a way that I can view the models myself? I hear you guys talk about them all the time but I don't know how to access them. I'll have to teach myself how to read them but I'd love to try!
DeleteMatthew.. Here are some of my favourite model sites.
DeleteTropical Tidbits: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
College of Dupage site:
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/
Weather Moment also has a model viewer at:
https://www.aweathermoment.com/model-viewer
There are other sites, but these are some of the more popular..mainly because of the ease of use, and access to a variety of models.
What a ripoff last night was for the storms. Huge storm headed for winnipeg and then it dies off just before it hits the city... what a bust. I wanted that storm to hit us!
ReplyDeleteThat storm went up fast and died almost as fast. Storm developed on the cold front as it pushed across Lake Manitoba last evening and quickly intensified as it broke through yesterday's strong cap. Storm had nice structure with a rotating wall cloud that tried to drop a tornado just northwest of the city but never did. Cell died within 30 minutes after that as it tracked just north of the city. Otherwise, yesterday was pretty much a bust for severe storms across southern MB as the capping inversion was just too strong for storms to bust through.
DeleteYes there were some pictures on facebook of the wall cloud, quite incredible. It would have been awesome if the storm hit winnipeg! As long as no damage or injuries occur of course. I would have loved to see a good lightning show and some strong winds and rain.
DeleteA high of 24C at YWG airport today, well shy of the advertised 28C. Most guidance was showing highs of 25C or lower today, so I was surprised to see that forecast of 28C. Sunday should be a couple degrees warmer than today as we get into a return southerly flow with highs of 27 to 28C by afternoon. Looks like a risk of thunderstorms Sunday night ahead of a warm front with gusty south winds.
ReplyDeleteYeah it never got nearly as warm as they predicted. Well our 30C drought continues. Is there any chance of hitting 30C anytime soon or will the average weather continue?
DeleteRob,is there a risk of severe storms in Southern Manitoba/RRV Sunday night?
ReplyDeleteLooks like we may be seeing some tstorms overnight Sunday into early Monday, but I don't think they will be severe. These storms will be nocturnal "elevated" storms which usually are not as severe as surface based daytime storms which can feed off more energy. However, these elevated storms could produce heavy rain, hail and frequent lightning.
DeleteHoping we get these storms! Elevated storms can produce a good show too and they often happen in the early morning hours.
DeleteRob. Is it impossible for a tornado to occur within the city of Winnipeg? As far as I know no tornado has ever occurred directly within the city. Is there a reason tornadoes don't go inside the city? That's a good thing obviously that they don't but I'm just curious.
DeleteMatthew I know of on Tornado within the City for sure back in the 80's or 90's. Small one. Did some damage at Versatile on Clarence.
DeleteIt is very possible for a tornado to hit Winnipeg, and in fact I think officially there have been 5 or 6 tornadoes that have occurred within city limits, albeit all weak with minor damage. But that doesn't mean the city can't be hit by a major destructive tornado.. it certainly can. We've just been lucky to avoid one... unlike Regina or Edmonton.
DeleteThanks for the info Rob I never knew that could happen. Could a tornado actually hit downtown though? Isn't there something about the urban heat island effect that prevents a tornado from forming in the city centre.
DeleteMatthew.. not sure where you heard that, but it's a myth that tornadoes can't hit downtown cores of cities. A tornado can easily track into a downtown core,especially well established long tracked tornadoes if they happen to form downstream of a city. It's happened to some major cities in the States, with severe damage to downtown buildings. The reason it doesn't happen very often is simply mathematics. The scale of a tornado is very small, on the order of a couple hundred meters to a mile for the monster tornadoes, and they usually travel for only a few km. There's an awful lot of land out there for tornadoes to impact.. and the odds of one of these small scale tornadoes to actually strike the downtown core of a city is very low.. but not zero, it can happen. Have you ever looked out a window of a plane and seen how much open land there is? Large cities are few are far between.. so the odds of a storm producing a tornado that travels directly over a city core is exceedingly small, but again, not zero. It can happen, and it has.
DeleteSo another day and yet will once again fall short of the predicted maximum. And now tomorrow's maximum forecasted high is 30? No way. Nothing to suggest will get anywhere near that. Don't know what's happening but the tforecasted daily maximums have been poorly overdone lately. This is not a hot summer so predicting daytime maximums at or around 30C on a daily basis is mind boggling especially when most guidance suggests otherwise. This is a cooler summer so 30C type temps are not very common in those types of summers.
ReplyDeleteYeah that 30C forecast for tomorrow looks optimistic, especially if we clear out late as the forecast suggests. Won't hit 30C if we're cloudy most of the day. Personally I think we'll clear out sooner than that after some overnight convection, with sunny skies by midday and a high of 28C or so. But yeah, pretty surprising that we haven't hit 30C once this month while AB and SK have been hitting it almost daily these last 2 weeks.
DeleteStill only one 30C day so far and that was on June 2nd. Why are 30C days so hard to come by this summer? Our max seemed to be around 27C today.
DeleteIt's amazing how that 30C heat has stayed out west and to our south.. just barely sneaking into SW MB at times. Here are the number of 30C days so far in July as of today (July 16)
DeleteMedicine Hat.... 13
Coronach SK..... 13
Bismarck ND .... 12
Regina ......... 5
Saskatoon ...... 4
Grand Forks ..... 4
Melita ......... 3
Winnipeg ....... 0
Again, I'm very surprised Winnipeg hasn't even seen one day of 30C heat sneaking into us given how widespread and persistent the heat has been to our south and west. But it hasn't been bad.. in fact, it's been a very comfortable and pleasant summer here with lots of sunny days, some rain mostly at night, comfortable humidity, and very few mosquitoes due to below average rain. All in all, a pretty decent summer so far for most people despite the lack of 30C heat (or perhaps because of that!)
Yes it's been a pleasant summer despite the lack of 30C heat. I suspect this may be one of only a few July's to not hit 30C. How is our summer ranking in terms of overall averages and compared to other summers?
DeleteOff the topic rob but we have two WU weather stations in close proximity to each other in St Vital . One near warde, SouthGlen and St. Annes Rd and one further South near ashworth, and Algate. Both are called Dakota Crossing . One is Winni31 and the other Manitba125 I believe . Winni31 goes off the air every mid afternoon as it starts to record temps in the 40s I suspect it is in the sun.
ReplyDeleteIs this normal as a great deal of confusion exists unless you check your settings.
Not sure what's going on there, but yeah.. doesn't sound like it's set up properly.
DeleteRob and Matthew a second tornado north of CPR tracks occurred before that one . Might have been on or near Pine? Wish i could provide more info but it was after 1950 by quite a few years. Late 60s or 70 s i believe . Will check further.
ReplyDeleteAccording to this article from the University of Winnipeg there have been 9 confimed tornados in the city and another 10 suspected. Would be interesting to know the details and have an article written about them . Jeff, Justin, julien, Scott, perhaps
ReplyDeletehttps://www.uwinnipeg.ca/emergency-guidelines/weather/tornadoes.html
That 20C forecasted low minimum tonight seems a little odd as well. With a brief shower possible early this evening and then some overnight convection I think the actual minimum low for tonight will below 20C.
ReplyDeleteActually, that low of 20C may work out. We have a brisk southerly wind much of the night, and increasing cloud cover from overnight convection could hold temps up. Most guidance has Winnipeg at or above 20C tonight. If not, we won't drop much below the 20C mark.. maybe 18-19C.
DeleteAn overnight low of 20.3C at YWG airport last night, and 21.6C at the Forks. So we did indeed stay above the 20C mark overnight. Temp even went up to 23-24C around 4 am ahead of the band of tstorms that pushed through. A bit of a heat burst at St Adolphe with their temp going up to 26.5C at 4 am as the tstorms were moving in.
DeleteI was up a lot of the night and I saw the temp hit 24C at 4AM. Quite impressive for that time of night! We won't break the 1894 high minimum though as that was 21.1C. Very warm for an overnight low.
DeleteI hope you agree rob, i was not looking foreword to a hot sticky overnight.
ReplyDeleteThe minimum forecasted by the weather network is 21C. Very warm. If that holds true we could break the 1894 record of 21.1C! I hope it doesn't stay that high though as I really don't want a hot and muggy overnight.
DeleteToday's hot spot in Manitoba was Churchill at .. get this.. 30.7C. They got to 30C in July before we did!
ReplyDeleteSeems every summer there is aday or two that churchill is warmer than us but not when we reach the high 20s. Beating us to 30 must be a record.
ReplyDeleteRob could we potentially hit 30C on Thursday? It looks like it could be a hot one.
ReplyDeleteWe'll come close, but I don't think we'll hit 30C today. Maybe 28C or so. But with light winds and plenty of sunshine, it'll feel hotter.
DeleteAnother reason we won't hit 30C today is because we have some smoke aloft from those BC fires.. which will cut down on the sun's strength and subsequent heating. UV will also be reduced.
DeleteRob what is going on with EC's climate log? The data for the last 2 days is missing? Why is this happening and how do we know what the mean temperature for the month is if this happens.
ReplyDeleteSometimes data is delayed getting into the archives and takes a couple days to catch up. But some days may also have missing data which won't show up at all. Hopefully it's just delayed.
DeleteIt has an " M " for missing so I assume it won't show up
DeleteLooks like they were doing some maintenance on the Winnipeg XWG station these past couple of days which resulted in some missing data. But we have the following numbers from the available observations..
Delete18 ... Max 25.1 min 11.1
19 ... Max 24.6 min 11.1
20 ... Max 25.4 min 8.0
Rob any idea as to what the pattern going into August will be? I've heard of a pattern change to hotter weather in August which will persist through the fall. And then a normal and variable winter. Is it too early to make predictions about fall and even winter now?
ReplyDeleteMatthew.. Long range outlooks from CPC into early August indicate pretty much what we've seen so far in July.. generally near to slightly below normal temps over southern MB and Ontario continuing into early August, with above normal temps out west. We may see a day or two of above normal temps now and then, but there's nothing to suggest sustained heat building over us in the next 2-3 weeks. After that, I have no idea what will happen since there are no strong signals to suggest one way or another. However, autumns here have generally been warmer than normal in the past 5-10 years with winters starting later.. and with Arctic sea ice at record lows again this year, that could mean another mild fall. But again, there's no real strong signal to suggest one way or another (as far as I know).
DeleteYeah I'm not a fan of the warm fall trend. Please not another warmest November on record. Why does low sea ice extent cause a warm fall? And I suspect this may be the new norm since I've is at a low extent every single year now.
DeleteThe CPC outlook is suggesting a switch to hotter weather in mid August... and a warm fall. Their outlooks go all the way to winter which is suggesting a relatively normal winter. Either way, I just hope this fall won't be as warm as the last 2 have been. 4th warmest in 2015 and 2nd warmest in 2016.
Although I remember we had a cool fall in 2012 and a very cold November in 2014.
Wonder if anyone would know this, but when was the last that YWG Airport actually reached the forecasted daily maximum for the one particular day. It's been quite a long time i'd say. Not sure what E.C. uses to make these grossly optimistic forecasts. As far a hotter pattern in August, well we've been hearing that for a few weeks now and last I checked we are still waiting for it to happen which it likely won't at this point. This supposedly was to be a hot July, no way has this been a hot July. Not even close. For the record this has not been a hot summer period. Cooler summers do not generally produce long extended periods of heat hence the word cooler summer. I certainly wouldn't waste my time into thinking that things will suddenly become hotter next month. The biggest thing that stands out this summer particularly this month is how cool the overnights have been but then again that's a common theme in a, well cooler summer. We may see some that advertised heat in early August but I wouldn't count on it. As mentioned we have been about heat for a few weeks now and we are still waiting for it. I believe Winnipeg has not hit 30C since the 34.5C seen on June 2nd. Yikes. A whole month of July without 30C here, well could happen. That would perhaps be a first here.
ReplyDeleteYes, there does seem to be a warm bias with forecast highs in Winnipeg this month.. including yesterday when we only hit 21C (forecast of 25C) Long range forecasts past Day 2 are computer generated, and have often advertised 30C+ this month which we have yet to hit. So yes, a bit of a warm bias with highs this month. Overall though, highs gave been generally near normal (25-27C) this month with a lack of humidity, lots of sun (most days), below normal rainfall and best of all .. no mosquitoes! So for most people, July has been pretty much a Goldilocks type of month.. not too hot, not too cool, just about right. Of course, for those who love extreme heat or storms, this month has been notably lacking. Personally, I still can't believe we haven't managed to hit 30 Celsius at least once this month especially with all that heat just to our south and west in SK and ND.
DeleteBy the way, since 1872, there have 12 Julys in Winnipeg that have not recorded a 30C day the entire month, the most recent being 2009.
DeleteRob yesterday was a pretty awful day. Maxed out at 21.7C around noon and then dropped to 17C at 1PM. Stayed around or below 20C for most of the day. And a driving rain too. Do you suspect july will finish below normal? Which will be our third month In a row below normal. Why does EC keep advertising 30C in the long range and it never happens.
DeleteThere has been several july's without a 30C reading before. They aren't common though and the last one was 2009. Yeah I know it's been a chilly summer.
ReplyDeleteYes we've definitely had some chilly nights. However the summer isn't even in the top 30 coldest yet. Other than for a hot first half of June it's been generally below normal though. Summer would rank much colder if it wasn't for the hot first half of June. It really was like the 2 week summer. NOAA's outlooks were calling and still continue to call for above average temps this summer. I have no idea where they are getting that from. They said a hot July and we haven't even had any hot days. Meanwhile west and south of us they are baking in the mid 30s this whole month.
It hasn't been an uncomfortable summer. I like the cooler nights. I do wish we'd get some hot days though.
Cool summers like this have a tendency to switch to very warm falls though. 2009 had the 9th coldest summer on record, very chilly. Yet it was followed by the warmest September on record and a very warm November. October was slightly chillier than usual.
ReplyDeletePersonally I'm hoping we get a cooler than normal fall. I want a cold winter though. I would love one comparable to the harsh winter of 2013/14. Or even colder. I'd love to experience winter like the extreme years of the late 1800's.
Rob, I noticed the forecast is calling for a high of 29C tomorrow, do you think that might be optimistic once again? And is there a risk of severe thunderstorms later tomorrow for Southern MB/RRV?
ReplyDeleteNo, I think we have a good shot at 29C tomorrow.. provided we stay sunny. Brisk southerly winds however will make things more bearable. Dewpoints in the upper teens to 20C will give humidex values in the 35C range.
DeleteIf we cannot reach 30C again this year it will set a new record for least 30C days in a calendar year. Current record is 2 days.
ReplyDeleteRob what about thunderstorm threat for today? Any chances for winnipeg?
ReplyDeleteIt also looks like we will be heading into an extended dry pattern again
29C in Winnipeg today? Nope. Not gonna happen. What is this warm bias for this city all about anyways. It's mind boggling how this is happening on a daily basis.
ReplyDeleteThe highest in the airport hourly readings was 26.3C. I knew we weren't gonna hit 29C. This is kind of getting ridiculous already, we haven't had any extended heat this summer. It's not the intensity of the cold ( extreme ) but rather just the lack of heat that's been mind boggling. I don't mind cool summers but I want to have at least a couple weeks of good heat. Fall will be setting in only 6 weeks from now, and no sign of any extended heat building in the long range. In fact it looks like we are in for another shot of cooler air in early August. EC continues to predict 30C+ next weekend in the day 5-7 forecasts but that's typical of them and they've done that all summer and it never happens. I'm longing for some summer scorcher days. I'm a fan of cold weather but we should at least get some good heat in the summer. Amazingly summers only about a degree below normal mainly due to the warm first half of June we had. It isn't even the top 30 coldest but it sure feels like it should be.
DeleteA max of 26.5C at YWG airport and 27.3C at the Forks today. So a couple degrees shy of the forecast high of 29C but within the 3C that EC defines as an accurate temperature forecast. Warmer to our west with 28.6C at Portage, 30C in Brandon and 32C at Melita. 35C+ temps over western Dakotas again. Just goes to show how the 30C heat has been persistent just to our south and west, but has a hard time making it into the RRV. Nonetheless, with the sun and humidity, felt pretty warm out there today, even with those brisk south winds.
DeleteRob so it's been a hot summer west and south right? Why can't the heat make it here?
DeleteMatthew.. it's just a consequence of how the upper pattern has set up this month with a persistent upper ridge over the west and upper troughing over Ontario. The dividing line between the above normal warmth to our west vs below normal to our east has set up right through srn MB into ND, with Winnipeg/RRV on the cooler side of that dividing line. Even in North Dakota, the difference is notable. In the western part of the sate, Williston ND has a July average of 25C so far, 2nd warmest July on record. Meanwhile in Grand Forks, the average July temp is 21.5C.. not even a top 30 warm July. This shows how the dividing line between the persistent heat and merely average summer has set up right through Manitoba and ND. And it appears this upper pattern will continue into August.
DeleteThank you for the explanation rob, I appreciate you taking the time to explain things like this to me.
DeleteI'm assuming we won't place in the top 30 coldest july's will we? Do we have a shot at a top 30 coldest summer? We are just outside of it now.
Since its been below average we might as well make July a top 30 coldest but it doesn't look like that's gonna happen.
For anyone who's wondering take a look at the latest CPC outlooks. No extended heat into the second week of August. Looks like we'll see a shot of cooler air in about a week from now with highs only in the low 20s
ReplyDeleteLooks like the forecast has flipped making much warmer temperatures a possibility in early August although not necessarily 30C
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