Temperature outlooks from CPC show favour below normal temperatures
across the Prairies for the next 1-2 weeks at least
across the Prairies for the next 1-2 weeks at least
After a nice warm first half of June, the weather pattern has shifted over the Prairies this past week, with the warmest air now suppressed south of the international border. The jet stream has shifted south allowing cooler air from the north to move across the Prairies. And it looks like this pattern will likely persist for the rest of the month into early July. Tomorrow and Tuesday should see a mix of sun and cloud with highs of 18-21C, then a system passing through southern MB will likely bring some showers and thunderstorms Wednesday with highs in the low 20s. Cooler temps will follow for the end of the week, with below normal temps in the teens and scattered showers likely next weekend. A return to sustained heat in southern MB isn't expected before early July.
If it was too cool for you today, you may want to try the Mojave desert in the SW US. Got up to 51C (124F) in Death Valley today, and 44C (111F) in Las Vegas. Temps of 45-50C all week down there, with up to 54C (130F) possible in Death Valley by Tue or Wed.
ReplyDeleteWhat is it about Death Valley, this rather small but defined region, that makes it so hot? I know that it's a desert but it's always just Death Valley that I read about hitting the low fifties during strong, sustained heat waves It's rare that I'll read about any other areas hitting these highs.
ReplyDeleteElevation plays a key role in where the hottest temps are recorded in the deserts. The lower the elevation, the hotter it can get (cooler the higher up you go) Death Valley is the lowest elevation in North America at 200 feet below sea level. This allows it to heat up more than any other surrounding area during excessively hot days.
DeleteRob I know that June is running about 1.7C above average right now due to the early month Heat wave but after the next cool 11 days do you think June will finish below normal.
ReplyDeleteWe had a chilly low of just 4.2C this morning. It was only supposed to get down to 9. They totally botched that forecast. It felt like an early fall morning this morning. And yesterday truly felt like early October.
The first half of June averaged around 20C in Winnipeg, or 3C above normal for June. Since the 15th, we've been averaging about 13-14C, or 3-4C below normal for June. Given the outlook for the rest of the month, I expect June will likely finish near or slightly below normal.
DeleteI am so glad we have our climate and not the climate of Arizona or Nevada. I couldn't take the heat. And I love our winters so much and I actually wish they were colder.
ReplyDeleteFor heat lovers (like myself), the outlook for the rest of June does not look encouraging. After Wednesday's system, we cool off again for the second half of the week and likely through the weekend. Current forecasts highs of 20+C for Winnipeg this weekend look optimistic.. we may only be in the teens especially if you believe the Euro which is showing well below normal temps this weekend. We hopefully warm up next week for a few days, but it's possible we may not see 25C again this month after hitting that mark on 10 of the first 11 days this month. Frustrating when we go backwards during the month!
ReplyDeleteI'm loving it! I hope that June finishes below normal! If you want heat to go to Arizona!! There's plenty of it there! Phoenix is hitting 48C with a low of 33C!
ReplyDeleteAll jokes aside- I don't mind the cool weather, but I hope this isn't the end of summer yet. Do you think June will finish below normal? The mean temperature of the month was well above normal but its dropping every day with the cold weather and now sitting at 1.3C above normal.
What does July look like Rob?
Is it really possible this is the end of summer? When is the next sign of a sustained warmup. It looks like we will have some average days here and there but the general trend is below average.
ReplyDeleteOh I saw your comment about June possible finishing below normal, thank you.
ReplyDeleteIf the month has started out average instead of above average it certainly would have been a very chilly June.
Record high of 117F (47C) set in Las Vegas today.. ties their all time hottest temperature ever recorded there. Widespread heat of 45-50C over desert southwest today with a max of 125F (52C) in Needles CA and 127F (53C) in Death Valley.
ReplyDeleteThose are excessively hot temperatures even for southwest US desert standards. Can you imagine if that kind of heat occurred up in the northern plains?
Well, it did. On July 6 1936, temperatures across North Dakota soared in to the 45-49C range, with a maximum of 121F (49.4C) in Steele ND. This was the start of an extraordinary heat wave that would last 2 weeks before abating. It set all time record highs in Bismarck (114F), Fargo (114F) and Jamestown (118F) as well as Winnipeg (42C) I still can't fathom the idea of those kind of temperatures occurring in North Dakota and Manitoba. It occurred during the peak of the dust bowl, which turned the Prairies into a moisture starved landscape that was prone to dust storms and heat waves. Even so, what an amazing setup that must been to get those kind of temperatures so far north. Such a heat wave has never been duplicated here since. You can read more about this epic heat wave on a earlier blog post I did.. http://robsobsblog.blogspot.ca/2008/07/july-11-1936-winnipegs-hottest-day.html
Rob what was the setup for July 1936? What caused it to get so hot? What I find interesting is the winter before that was one of the coldest on record. 42C in Winnipeg is insane but 49C in North Dakota is completely ridiculous. What allowed those temperatures to get so far north?
ReplyDeleteIs there any records of central or northern Manitoba to show how far north the heat really got?
Matthew.. the July 1936 heat wave was the result of a massive upper ridge over central North America into the Prairies that was pretty much stationary for 2 weeks (or would rebuild quickly after a temporary weakening) Such setups are rare, but not unheard of. We had similar setups in March 2012 and June 1988 that set new records for June and March heat across southern MB and much of the upper plains and Great Lakes.
DeleteIn the 1936 case, low pressure was located over western North Dakota with a warm front into central Manitoba drawing the extreme heat across southern MB. Drought conditions on the prairies would make the surface heat up very quickly with any heat wave.. as all the heating energy would be absorbed into ground instead of used for evaporating surface moisture. On top of that, you had the early July sun, which is pretty much the strongest sun angle you can get in these latitudes. So all the ingredients were there to maximize heating across the northern plains and southern Prairies (even all the way up to Norway House which reached 38C on July 11 1936) But the intensity of the 1936 heat wave is something that has never been duplicated in over 80 years.. with all time high temperature records still standing from what is the granddaddy of all heat waves for this region.. I'm not sure we'll ever see one like it in our lifetimes.
Rob I remember March 2012. The winter before that was one of the warmest on record too. If the March 2012 heat wave happened in July I suspect it could have been worse than July 1936.
DeleteSpeaking of March 2012, do you know what the contributing factors to that incredible heat wave were? It literally shattered tens of thousands of records across Canada and the US. I remember places that were normally locked in winter in March were hitting 30C. It was extreme.
I would say March 2012 was an easy equivalent for July 1936 and it would have been scary if that set up had happened in the summer.
I for one hope we never see that again.
Yikes...high of only 13 Friday. Not good. These extended cool periods at this time of year...never good sign. As for the supposed warmer temps Monday thru Wednesday next week, well, I wouldn't be too optimistic about that at this point. Even if that happens, the cooler temperatures likely return later in the week and going into early July. This certainly has cool summer written all over it. Time will tell i guess.
ReplyDeleteIt's gonna be a cold one tomorrow! Unfortunately we probably won't break the record low max of 12.5C set in 1996. If tomorrow's forecast fell on last Sunday we definitely would have smashed it given that the record low max for that day was 14.4. It's too bad that tomorrow's low max is a colder one as I would have loved to break the record. Amazingly despite the cool weather June is averaging 1C above normal so far given the fact that we had the early month heatwave.
ReplyDeleteIt sure has been an awful 2nd half of June. The sad part of all of this is that this cool pattern is likely going to continue going into July
ReplyDeleteJune is still above average though. It's been pretty chilly lately though. This is like October like weather!
ReplyDeleteI'm fine with it though. Just put on a light jacket and it's beautiful to take a walk in this weather. I love walking in it!
ReplyDeleteVery preliminary look at weather for next Saturday, Canada Day.. our big 150th birthday bash. For Winnipeg and southern MB, models are indicating a system passing through on Friday into Friday night on June 30th spreading some showers across southern MB. Those may linger into Saturday morning but drier weather is forecast for the afternoon and evening, with a mix of sun and cloud. Temperatures will likely be cooler than normal Saturday with highs around 18-20C and lows near 10C. Winds from the north at 20-30 km/h becoming light by evening.
ReplyDeleteSo very preliminary guidance hints at dry but cool weather for Canada Day evening celebrations and fireworks here in Winnipeg and srn MB. We'll see how this forecast evolves over the next few days.. but 8 days out, that's what current guidance is suggesting. I'll update expected Canada Day weather as the week goes on.
Rob how long is the cool pattern going to stay for? It looks like we warm up this week but then cool down again. Are we talking about extended period of below normal temps again?
DeleteAlso I'm not sure if you have any idea about this but, why were the late 1800's so cold? Looking at the old records our climate was much colder back then until it warmed significantly in the early 20th century, peaking around 1940, it then cooled off again through the 70's and now it's warmed to the warmest it's ever been.
Winter 2013-14 was a perfect example of what used the be the norm every year, and I wish it still was. Our winters aren't long enough, although most people would think I'm crazy for saying that, I love cold weather.
Although I do wish we'd get some summer around here this year. I just like a good balance of all 4 season.
Rob could we break tomorrows record low maximum of 13.9C set in 2004, I think we might have a shot at it!
ReplyDeleteMax of 11.8C at YWG so far as of 1 pm. Awful June day. We certainly have a good shot at the coldest maximum for today of 13.9C. There is some drier air in the Interlake that may work its way down here by evening and kick our temp up a couple degrees. Otherwise, I don't see us getting much above 13 or 14C. Dreadful weather for June 24th.
DeleteI love this weather Rob! I want to break the record cold maximum!
DeleteIt was actually 10.8C at 1PM
DeleteIt's 11.5C now at 4PM
Rob, why has it been so well below normal for this long and is there any sign of a change over the next week or two?
ReplyDeleteAlso, been hearing rumblings of severe thunderstorm potential for Southern Manitoba for Tuesday-Wednesday next week, What are your thoughts on that?
It's only been below normal for about 10 days (I know, it feels longer) and don't forget, the first half of June was above normal so this second half is sort of balancing things out. The cooler pattern is thanks to the jet stream that has shifted south of the US border and around a blocking high over the US southwest that has led to record breaking heat in that part of the world. There are signs this pattern will shift back to a warmer pattern for us during the first week of July.. but it's only preliminary signals right now. Hopefully the pattern change develops as indicated.
DeleteSlight risk of severe tstorms over southern MB Tuesdy night into Wednesday.. but severe threat looks mainly south of the US border closer to low track and where's there better low level moisture.
DeleteJune is actually still above normal due to the early month heat wave.
ReplyDeleteHighest max I saw was 12.2C today. I think we got this record!
Officially broke the record low max, high of 12.6C today!
ReplyDeleteRob. Temperature is down to 4.8C as of midnight. Could we be talking about our latest frost in recorded history?? Previous latest was June 20th. I so hope we beat it and get a frost tonight!
ReplyDeleteLooks like showers and possible thunderstorms Wednesday morning over Winnipeg/RRV.. should be out by afternoon with a clearing trend by evening. Thursday looks mainly dry before another chance of rain Friday.. although recent model runs have downplayed the rain threat Friday. At this point, Saturday is looking dry although temps will be cooler than normal for July 1st.. with highs around 20C. But if we can stay rain free that day, most people won't mind the cooler temps.
ReplyDeleteFinally a pattern shift to warmer temps next week..
DeleteRob could we hit the 30C mark next week? It's definitely looking possible!
DeleteRob how is June so far in terms of comparing it to the seasonal average? Above or below?
ReplyDeleteCompact, near stationary MCS/MCV affecting NE N Dakota and SE Manitoba giving 50-75 mm rain. Locally.. yet another miss. In fact, in spite of all the cool and unsettled conditions during the latter part of June, precipitation will finish well below average for the second consecutive month.
ReplyDeleteThose moisture deficits will rapidly manifest themselves if and when we get into a sustained period of normal to above normal temperatures and sunny conditions. Not good considering many trees are weakened/ stressed from complete defoliation this spring.
Looks like a ridge will build in next week that brings very hot temperatures to us. Not a promising setup considering the lack of rainfall we've had as of late. They are saying that Winnipeg and the RRV are on the edge of a possible drought situation.
DeleteNorthern end of line of T-storms rapidly fizzling over Winnipeg, while stronger convection to the SW and SE (producing up to 50 mm of rain) maintains itself. Surprise!
ReplyDeleteDespite the widely scattered activity yesterday, it was spotty at most and so many places missed out on a big rain yesterday. That being said, looks like we're sitting at 56% normal rainfall this month (74% at the forks) thought it was worse than that, like in the 30% range. But hopefully July will see more action. This June was such a disappointment for storms.
ReplyDeleteWell, models have been back and forth all week with the forecast for tomorrow, Canada Day, here in southern MB. But it looks like there's a bit more consensus on what to expect for our big 150th birthday bash. There's a minor system over southern SK today that will track across SW MB tonight into the RRV Saturday morning. This impulse will spread a few showers with it, and possibly an embedded tstorm, mainly over southern regions towards the US border. Forecast calls for a risk of a tstorm in Winnipeg tomorrow morning but I don't see it this far north. By early afternoon, this impulse will be moving out of southern MB and we should see a mix of sun and cloud Saturday afternoon, with the slight chance of an isolated shower popping up with daytime heating. Mainly though, it will be rain free for most areas for Canada Day activities. Temperatures will be on the cool side of normal.. with afternoon highs of 20-21C along with a north breeze of 20 kmh. Actually quite comfortable if the sun is out. Skies should clear Saturday evening and winds will drop off, so there'll be ideal conditions for fireworks by 11 pm, although temps may be a bit cool around 15c. You may want to consider bringing a light jacket or sweater if you'll be out late. The rest of the Canada Day weekend looks fantastic with sunshine and temps in the mid 20s. Whatever the weather, have a safe and enjoyable Canada Day weekend! Happy 150th Canada!
ReplyDeleteRob did June finish above or below normal? There's a missing data value in the EC climate log so I can't tell. It's very close so that missing value may be a factor.
ReplyDeleteMatthew.. June finished with an average temp around 16.7C.. which would be just slightly below the "normal" June average of 17.0C (although if you're within 0.5C of normal, I would consider that "near normal") The missing value was a high of 19.1C on the 15th which won't change the monthly average much. Rain at Winnipeg airport totalled 51 mm in June, well below the normal of 90 mm which is typically our wettest month. That 51 mm however is on the low side for the city as most areas of the city saw 65-80 mm during the month, highest in the east end. (still below average though)
DeleteThanks rob! Looks like July is going to be off to a hot start. Signs of a heat wave with temperatures in the 30's next week.
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