Tuesday, July 25, 2017
Seasonably warm weather to close out July.. but 30C heat continues to elude Winnipeg
It will be a nice warm week ahead with high temperatures generally in the mid to upper 20s over the RRV and southern MB. Conditions should be generally dry as well with little in the way of showers or thunderstorms expected through Friday. The next threat for organized showers will be on Saturday as a weak frontal system slides through southern MB. The greatest heat through the end of the month however will still be focused out west over SK and AB which have experienced multiple days of 30C or more this month. In Winnipeg, we have yet to hit the 30C mark in July, even though precipitation has been below average and sunshine has been plentiful. The upper pattern this month has brought the bulk of the heat over western Canada with cooler temperatures over eastern Manitoba into Ontario. There is a chance Winnipeg may be close to the 30C mark by the end of the week. Since 1872, there have been 12 Julys in Winnipeg that have failed to reach the 30C mark, most recently in 2009. With one week to go, we'll see if July 2017 is added to that list.
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Rob is july going to finish top 30 coldest? What's the monthly mean right now? I'm not sure if the EC listing is accurate because of the missing data.
ReplyDeleteJuly average through the 24th is around 18.5C (those 3 missing days won't affect the average much) For us to finish with a top 30 coolest July, we'd have to finish with an average below 18.5C. With generally warm weather through the rest of the month (daily mean around 20C) it's unlikely we'll have a top 30 coolest July. Which is OK by me!
ReplyDeleteAww I thought we might as well get a top 30 coldest considering it's been kind of miserable anyway.
DeleteAre we looking at the potential for a top 30 coldest summer? It certainly feels like it should be.
Even though july likely won't be a 30 coldest, it will finish below average, which will mark the third consecutive month below the mean average. A new streak? I hope so! And I hope it'll continue into the fall and winter as I want a classic old fashioned winter this year. Although I agree a couple of 30C days in there would be nice for August.
I don't think too many people would describe this month as "miserable". It's actually been quite pleasant with lots of sunny days, comfortable temps and humidity, adequate rain (mostly at night too) and no mosquitoes! It's been a terrific month for outdoor activities. I think most people would think this was a perfect summer month, despite the lack of 30C heat.
DeleteYeah idk. I just feel it hasn't been the greatest summer month. I mean as you can tell I like cold weather but honestly I would like to have some good summer heat before the season is done. I'm longing for a couple of 33C+ days.
DeleteRob, what are your thoughts regarding storm threat for Saturday? Are severe storms possible in Southern Manitoba/RRV?
ReplyDeleteSlight risk of some storms popping up Saturday afternoon/eve ahead of a weak frontal trough pushing across southern MB. But dynamics look weak, as well as wind shear. So a few cells may pop up Saturday, but the severe threat looks low at this point.
DeleteMedicine Hat AB hit 33C today, their 17th day of 30C or more this month. And it looks like they'll be 30C or more the rest of the month, so they'll end up with 22 days of 30C or more in July. Quite impressive, but they've had more. 3 July's had 27 days of 30C or more, namely 1936, 1917 and 1914. 2 others had 24. 22 would tie 1926 as the 6th most 30C days in a month in Medicine Hat. But Medicine Hat is no stranger to 30C heat in July. They average about 11-12 30C days every July.
ReplyDeleteMedicine Hat is forecast to reach 37C today. And its seven-day outlook has highs fluctuating between 32C and 37C. Its humidex tends to be next-to-nothing too.
DeleteRob why do they get so much hotter than us being at the same latitude as well? Aren't their winters warmer too?
DeleteSouthern AB is warmer than southern MB due to the influence of the Rocky Mountains, as well as its drier climate. Areas east of the Rockies often get chinook warming with air coming down the eastern slopes of the Rockies, which can warm them up considerably, especially in the winter. In the summer, they can get hotter temperatures due to the extreme dryness over southern and southeast AB, which allows air to heat up more efficiently than air with more moisture (as we have here) Also they have no large moisture sources (eg lakes, forests, etc) which can help to modify hot airmasses. So their climate is more desert like than ours, even though they are at the same latitude as us.
DeleteThanks rob. So basically our climate is colder because we don't get the influence of the Rockies? I've heard of Alberta getting up to 20C in January while it struggles to exceed freezing for the entire period of DJF here. In southern Alberta do they have snow on the ground all winter like we do given the fact that they get those warm ups?
DeleteI think we could hit 30C today. What do you think?
Given the forecast I think we will get a 30C this month.
ReplyDeleteIf we don't hit 30C tomorrow (Friday) then we should do it Saturday for sure. But I think we have a good shot at it tomorrow. Note that Saturday may see some late afternoon tstorm activity.. not currently reflected in the sunny forecast.
DeleteI suspect we will reach 30C today
DeleteA high of 28.7C at YWG airport today, but it did hit 30.1C at the Forks. 30.3C at my backyard station. Most places in Manitoba hit 30C or higher today except the far north and near the big lakes. Winnipeg airport was one of the lower readings in southern MB today.. not sure why that would be.
DeleteThe airport is always colder it seems. I wonder if we will get a 30C in the last 3 days of this month.
DeleteWould like to see an analysis in the occurrence of >= 30 C temperatures since the station was moved the last time. Calibration or site may be an issue.
DeleteThe fact that the recording station is continually being moved to colder and colder location (further out to the NW and more affected by cold drainage flows possibly following the Omand's creek basin) needs to be taken into account when doing any sort of trend analysis. Would be a great way of obfuscating evidence of global warming wouldn't it?
Why would they be moving it to colder locations?
DeleteDespite the fact it's sitting in a relatively cold location we have seen a huge clustering of record warm years since 2000. I actually think it's important to have the recording station in a cool airport location because it gives an idea of what the temperature should be without the urban heat island effect. If we recorded from say the forks than it would skew everything and all the old records would be worthless.
The station has been moved multiple times including as recently as a few years ago (after 2000). No idea what the reasons for the moves were. The effect in question is different from a typical lack of urban heating.. there is an issue with cold drainage affecting the station during night time (especially with snowcover). It is not uncommon in some situations for the airport to get colder than surrounding Manitoba-Ag stations (situated in rural areas).
DeleteEC is predicting only 27C for Saturday?? Seems odd given the other forecasts that are out there. I thought we'd hit 30 today but I guess not
ReplyDeleteWell no 30C once again today for YWG Airport. In fact temps have taken a nosedive in the last while. Down to 23C as of 3 PM behind the cold front and weak showers that are passing through. Thunderstorm threat has pretty much diminished for the Winnipeg area at this point. Cold front is producing some storms well west and southwest of here but nothing severe as of yet. Best chance for severe weather now is well south of Winnipeg along the US border.
ReplyDeleteAnother bust.... as usual. No storms for us. I thought for sure we would make 30C today....
DeleteWinnipeg Airport reporting a reading of 30.2C as of 3PM. Rob's Obs reporting 31.3C. Looks like it won't be a 30C free July after all.
ReplyDeleteOfficial high of 31.0C at YWG airport today, and 32.1C at the Forks (as well as my site). Felt much hotter with that blazing sunshine, light wind, and high dewpoints. Scorcher! But not as hot as southern SK today. Up to 38C (actual temp) in Regina and Moose Jaw!
DeleteYes it was certainly a hot day! I saw the 38C temps in southern SK on EC's website. Pretty amazing! Do you think we will hit 30C again today?
DeleteAnother bust for Winnipeg! Windy, hot conditions causing rapid drying today. Will be the third consecutive month of below normal precipitation.. and its starting to add up. Hopefully some rain as the cooler air moves in the next few days.
ReplyDeleteI wish we'd just get some good storms for once. Humidex of 40 and we can't even get a drop of rain or rumble of thunder. I hope the dry pattern doesn't continue into fall and winter.
DeleteJuly 2017 will tie for 26th least 30C days since 1872 ( 2 days )
ReplyDeleteJuly finished with a mean of 19.3C according to EC's records. This mean is 0.3C below the average which marks our third month in a row of slightly below normal temperatures.
ReplyDeleteSo since July had those 3 missing days of data in environment Canada's logs, do they never actually record the months mean temperature? Do they have the actual highs for those days in their records and it's just not showing on the public section or do they really not have them?
What kind of records does EC keep and why aren't they readily available to the public? I'm grateful for the weather records website by JJ. It got restored in June and it's updated and better now. It's the website I check every time I want to see a record. Does EC keep track of these records and just not show them to the public?
Apparently they don't track low maximums or high minimums which I think is odd. As our federal weather service they should be keeping track of all the records. JJ's weather books are easily the most comprehensive and complete records database for winnipeg available anywhere.
The NWS in the USA keeps track of records and publicly displays them so why cant EC sort out their ridiculous mess. They provide 1938-2008 data to the media which is grossly inaccurate especially considering winnipeg had good climate records all the way back to 1872, I don't understand why EC doesn't utilize this.
Matthew.. Eventually, those missing records should be added to the database at some point, but it may take awhile. The problem with EC climate data input right now is that a lot of it is automated with crude quality control checking. If there's missing data, it will stay as missing until they are informed of the missing data and it can be added manually. A lot of this data input and QC used to be done right here in Winnipeg and things got done a lot quicker, but now climate services are done out of Toronto, and it can take awhile to correct (if it ever does)
DeleteAs for the records database, EC is working on a database that merges climate records for a particular site together to span a longer timeframe and incorporate different stations in the same general area. Thus, Winnipeg would get a merged database from 1872 to the present using records from St John's College to the current airport site (which is what JJ does for his records database). There are some issues with it which they're trying to sort out, but a beta version is being tested. Hopefully something comes out of it soon. I agree that EC's records database is a mess right now, and frequently advertises "records" for a ridiculously short time frame. As you say, we're very lucky to have a site like JJ's here in Winnipeg that continually updates the Winnipeg records database with up-to-date and accurate stats.
Yes I am very grateful for the JJ site. I hope EC figures out their records situation because we should have had the merged 1872-2017 database a long time ago.
DeleteCorrection: According to JJ July actually averaged 19.1C, not 19.3C as I stated earlier. EC's data must be wrong because of the missing value.
DeleteSo far if you put together June, July, and augusts mean so far we get 17.4C, which is tied 28th coldest summer since 1872. Considering it's only the third day of August though this mean will likely warm and probably won't be a top 30 coldest summer unless the last half of August is very chilly.
..And no rain for today. Things will continue getting drier even as we experience cooler conditions.
ReplyDeleteYep unfortunately we missed out on the rain yet again.
DeleteDays are starting to get noticeably shorter now... even the tree across the street is starting to drop a couple of leaves now. A sure sign that fall is on the way, despite the fact it's only early August. And with no major heat in the forecast through at least mid month, could we be looking at an early start to fall?
ReplyDeleteRob I notice that the Weather Underground reporting for your station and all others has an unusual forecast for today. The written forecast on the WU app calls for much warmer today than yesterday in "forecast on Demand" mode and much cooler than yesterday in the "NWS" mode. In east StPaul The wind direction and speed change as well. Is this a contrarian view or a program error?
ReplyDeleteThe WU forecast is an automated forecast based on weather data from the local site.. Not sure what their algorithm is, but I suspect it compares temps from 24 hrs ago to help with the next days forecast. In this case, it was a much cooler start yesterday than today which may explain the "much warmer forecast" for today. Obviously, there's more to consider but that may be one variable throwing the forecast off.
DeleteThanks rob
ReplyDeleteRob. What is going on with EC's August monthly summary so far? Most days are blank and many of the few that are there have missing values. It's kind of frustrating because there's no way to tell what the mean temperature of the month is now. I can't believe we can't even rely on our federal weather service.
ReplyDeleteThere were problems with the data coming from the airport weather station over the long August weekend that didn't get fixed until after the holidays. As a result there are several days of missing data over that time. At some point, the missing data will need to be updated with "estimated" data for those days, but I don't know when that will happen.
DeleteThanks rob. But the station itself was reporting data and taking measurements the entire time as the environment Canada website was working. So how come they don't have the data?
DeleteSo do we have no idea how the month is turning out? We'll need data to determine where the summer ranks.
Sometimes I think the old fashioned mercury thermometer was better lol.
Intensifying drought conditions locally with Rob's site only recording 5 mm half way into August. Persistent Rex block pattern with upper and surface high pressure over Manitoba undercut by 'troughiness' over the Central and Northern Plains. Multiple weather systems have split apart or skirted around the province - with models suggesting a repeat for Tuesday/Wednesday system.
ReplyDeleteWe've had some very chilly nights. This blocking pattern seems to be bringing hot days but cold nights. Normally we don't get cold at night like this until a couple weeks after now.
DeleteRob will there be enough rain tomorrow to seriously dampen da drought (pun intended) trees in south central St Vital are showing the effects
ReplyDelete. Without immediate and substantial rain they will not be with us in mid late October as They were last year.
Area of showers and embedded t-showers has developed over central N Dakota towards S Manitoba associated with weak LLJ and PWATs of 40 mm. Mean flow would advect these towards Winnipeg *if* forcing holds up. 12Z runs of NSSL 1 km WRF showing potential for heaviest accumulations in N Dakota (25-50 mm) but suggest 15-25 mm for our region - which would be very welcome. Leading edge would arrive in the next few hours, but precipitation is light and may dry up. Bulk of heaviest rain would occur 12-6 am.
ReplyDeletePretty good validation from the model.. although QPF is slightly overdone. Radar estimates from Bismarck and NDAWN stations suggest a corridor of about 20-30 mm of accumulated precipitation thus far under region of convection.
DeleteNDAWN stations in N Dakota show a corridor of 30-50 mm QPE from west of Bismarck to Devil's Lake. Unfortunately amounts drop off drastically near the Manitoba border. Around 5 mm locally, with monthly total rain only around 10-15 mm for the city. The drought continues..
DeleteI don't know how much rain we will get but we could certainly use some.
ReplyDeleteDrought conditions will be exacerbated considerably tomorrow with desiccating conditions projected.. there will also be wild fire concerns.
ReplyDeleteStrong SSW flow of 40 km/h indicated from high resolution model guidance. Need a SSE trajectory for enhanced wind speed from funneling effect up the RRV, but SW component will help facilitate mixing and reduce dewpoints and RH. Some uncertainty as to moisture return and evapotranspiration (from areas of N Dakota that have received up to 125 mm of rain this month).
This will also affect convective potential tomorrow evening as cold front moves in. Depending on the moisture available.. 1000 to 1500 J/kg CAPE will be present. Cap will have to be overcome - and given previous similar cases - there will likely be isolated to scattered cells forming by early evening in areas of better mesoscale forcing (around lakes, sloping terrain, etc). Not looking good for much rain in Winnipeg.
Rob i can visualize most rain and snow mm and cm measurements but imagining .3mm as . O1 or 1/100th of an inch just seems wrong. Especially so coming from a system in which 1/10 th inch was the least amount reported. At what point did we decide to media report amounts smaller than the eye can perceive and, or what was the rationale for that decision.
ReplyDeleteDon.. the standard for rainfall measurements has always been .01 inches since the weather service began in the late 1800s. In Canada, that was changed to 0.2 mm when we went metric in the mid 70s. Yes, it's small amount.. but it's a world standard that everyone goes by. Similarly, we measure temperature to 0.1C resolution.. no one can tell the temperature difference by that small amount, but that's the resolution that the data is measured to.
DeleteRob. How is our outlook into early september looking? It looks like it might be a warm start with a shot of fall weather in the 2nd week. What are your thoughts on this? Warm septembers have become the norm, but I am ready for fall.
ReplyDeleteAnother paltry 3-5 mm today bringing monthly precipitation totals across the city to only 15-25 mm. The dry conditions will predispose us to the risk of early fall frosts.. as early as tonight for some regions of SE Manitoba. Due to cold start this evening, clear skies, dry soils, etc.. high resolution models back in sub 5 C td's (currently residing over NW Ontario) by dawn tomorrow. This could result in low temperatures as cold as +2 to +4 C - which would likely yield light/scattered frost for some locales. Best chances would be in regions of sandy soil with lower heat capacity generally east of PTH 12 - however it may get pretty chilly as far west as the far eastern suburbs of Winnipeg (3-5 C).
ReplyDeleteAttention will then turn to next rain chance Friday/Saturday. Models right now show the bulk of precipitation setting up just to our east. However - given the development of a tropical disturbance over the Gulf Coast of Texas.. models may struggle with placement and amount of blocking that will be in place. Therefore considerable uncertainty exists in placement of highest QPF, and interaction between the tropical system and aforementioned frontal boundary (amount and placement of deep tropical moisture advection).
Does Winnipeg actually have a chance at a frost tonight? If we dropped below 0 it would tie for the earliest frost ever. How did it get down to -0.6C in 1885 this early in the season? What conditions would have had to set up in order for this to happen.
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg's low of 2.1C Thursday morning was not a record, but apparently hadashville recorded a low of -0.1C. Thompson also dropped below -1C.
ReplyDeleteA significant warmup this weekend into next week which looks like several days of 30C weather possible.
In terms of precipitation chances for Winnipeg... same old, same old.
ReplyDeleteUpper ridge over Manitoba with wave undercutting the upper high over the Northern Plains/ Midwest. Parent upper trough in Saskatchewan with inverted trough connecting the two features at the surface. The southern wave will tap LLJ and deep pool of moisture generating heavy rains to our SE (50-75 mm in S Dakota and WC Minnesota/ 10-25 mm in NW Minnesota and RRV of N Dakota).
NSSL-WRF develops surface based convection along the inverted trough (given enough clearing tomorrow afternoon) which will slide down along the Pembina escarpment and miss the city - again. Best we can hope for is to be brushed by some elevated convection late morning to midday.
If we don't get any rain accumulation today, looks very unlikely we will the remainder of August. With only about 13.8 mm of rain at the Airport this August (amounts estimated on Aug 9 by using The Forks amounts in the morning when the Airport station was out of commission), this would be the 7th driest August since 1873 and the driest since 1991. Only 204 mm so far this year which means we are only a little less than half way to our yearly normal.
DeleteNot a drop of rain overnight. Dryness continues..
DeleteAnd only about 2-3 more months of possible rain accumulation before winter sets in. It has indeed been a dry summer, and that's following last fall and winters extremely wet pattern. A wet fall would be nice with hopefully some early season snows.
DeleteOverall will this place in the top 30 driest summers on record?
DeleteLooking at monthly composites for August 2017 so far..
DeleteWe have been stuck in a Rex block/ split flow pattern. Southern branch of jetstream has been over BC down into the US Midwest; with poleward branch passing over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and curving south towrds L. Superior where it merges with the former. This is driven by positive height anomalies from coastal BC up towards the arctic islands, and negative height anomalies (upper troughing) from the US Central Plains up through the Great Lakes. This has resulted in persistent high pressure (calm conditions) and NE flow (aloft) anomalies locally. This has suppressed moisture transport (LLJ) further SE in the vicinity of the troughing.
Need for either upper ridge over arctic to break down and/or SW flow in southern branch to move over us in order to end drought. The general northerly upper flow periodically brings down cool arctic air - and given our dry topsoil - it is easy to see how it could lead to an earlier than average first frost. Allow this pattern may not have had much effect on early maturing crops like wheat and canola.. late maturing crops like corn and soybeans may be in trouble.
Most of the forecasted lows into early September are still in the double digits so I'm not sure if we need to worry about frost yet. Closest we came to a frost was last week when we reached 2.1C. In fact some locations did report a temperature that fell below zero.
DeleteIts like its forgotten how to rain around here.
ReplyDeleteYeah no kidding. My rain gauge is nothing but a backyard lawn ornament these days. Still hoping for some showers Friday with even a risk of a thunderstorm.. but once again, it looks like a better chance over western MB with the band weakening as it moves into the RRV. Hopefully it stays together longer this time to give us some rain here, but it won't be much. We need a slow moving organized system to give us some substantial rain, but nothing like that in the near future.
DeleteMeanwhile, the rain can't stop down south in east Texas due to Harvey. Beaumont TX (near the Louisiana border) recorded an unbelievable 26" (660 mm) of rain in ONE day yesterday! That is more than double their previous all-time one day record of 12.76". They're up to 45" (1140 mm) now from Harvey and it's still falling! Major flooding ongoing there with people trapped and needing rescue. Terrible situation. Harvey will be the costliest weather disaster in US history.
We could use some of that rain! What an awful disaster that's happening down there
DeleteNot as warm today with a cooler airmass over us along with some smoke aloft reducing solar strength today. Hazy sunshine with a max of 24C or so. Still quite pleasant. We warm up again tomorrow into upper 20s, then a cooldown by Labour Day with highs only in the teens early next week (back to school weather!)
ReplyDeleteHi rob! Yes we need some rain around here!
ReplyDeleteAre we looking at the potential for a shot of fall weather next week? Do you think this is going to be the end of true summer weather.
August will be in the top 30 coldest for minimum temperatures and too 30 driest as well
The summer of 2017 won't be remembered as the top 30 coldest since the daily maximum were warmer than the last 3 summers especially for August.
ReplyDeleteYes the daily maximums have been fairly warm, but the lows have been very chilly and August will place in the top 30 coldest for lows. If it wasn't for a couple of heat waves we've had the summer could have been in the 30 coldest. August will mark our fourth consecutive colder than normal month as well as our first colder than normal season since fall 2014.
DeleteRob. Environment Canada is insisting on a warm fall and yet another mild winter, at least according to David Phillips. What are your thoughts? It does look like September will be warmer than normal and the CPC outlooks call for a warm fall, but I highly doubt it will be as warm as the last 2 falls have been. How can they predict that far ahead as well when there are ENSO neutral conditions? I don't see how they can make any calls on winter at this point either since it is just the first day of meteorological Fall today. With ENSO neutral conditions expected to remain through the winter, And the fact that we've had three consecutive warm winters, with two of them being very warm, I would imagine we are in for something colder this year.
ReplyDeleteMy best guesses are we could see a medium winter such as the winter of 2012/13 or possible a colder and more variable solution such as the winter of 2008/09. what are your thoughts?
Matthew.. keep in mind that there are a number of variables that can influence what the upcoming fall or winter will be like, it's not just about ENSO. ENSO plays a big role for our winters when it's strongly positive or negative, but even then, its influence can be impacted by other climatic oscillations, like the PNA (Pacific North American oscillation), AO (Arctic oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) plus other variables. Complicating things is that these oscillations have different cycles and time scales, and can cancel or amplify each other based on phasing. Trying to predict how each of these climatic variables will influence the weather pattern a few months from now is extremely difficult, and success is limited mainly to when there is a strong signal that has good long term predictability (such as a strong El Nino) Otherwise, long range forecasters base a lot of their outlooks on current ocean temperature anomalies, sea ice coverage, and analog comparisons to previous years. When ENSO is neutral, these other climatic factors mentioned above play a more important role, but they have limited predictability.
DeleteGiven the low Arctic sea ice this year (again), I would expect another mild fall and late start to winter this year, but other than that.. I really have no clue as to what the upcoming winter will be like.
Thanks rob. It seems this low arctic sea ice is becoming a trend. I highly doubt that the fall could be as warm as last years though, I hope we don't get another warmest November on record.
DeleteA measly 1.4 mm in those weak showers Friday at my place.. barely enough to wet the ground. Heavier amounts with thunderstorms to the north of us through the Interlake with local amounts of 8-13 mm.
ReplyDeleteNot even that in St Vital with a just a pesky 0.4 mm at my place. Don't see many good rain chances in the next couple weeks either...
DeleteThis isn't good at all. Is it bad to go into fall with very dry ground and little rain in the forecast? After the 7th driest August on record it's about time we get some rain.
DeletePrecipitation deficit in the fall can easily be made up with a snowy winter or wet spring. However if snow is meager this winter and we have a dry spring, then soil moisture levels will be a major concern for next growing season. One dry summer can be handled pretty well if soil moisture levels are sufficient going in.. but a second one would be much tougher on crops due to reduced moisture levels. But it's been a long while since we've seen two or more dry years in a row... seems to be one extreme or another every year, and more often than not, too much rain.
DeleteIt does seem like we've been seeing extremes, especially in temperatures. We had the incredibly warm years of 2012, 2015, and 2016. But then we had 2 very cold years of 2013 and 2014 sandwiched in between them. We've had Record early and record late springs this decade. Many warm winters but one that was the coldest since the 1800s. Why is it getting so extreme?
DeleteWasn't the 1930's a very dry decade? I read that some places didn't see precipitation for several years but I don't know the truth to that. If the 30's were so dry would there have been times where there was no snow on the ground all winter?
The 30's also had some very hot summers.
As we get into the climatologically drier fall period.. it becomes harder and harder to make up precipitation deficits.
DeleteAs for above average snowfall.. depending on onset and depth of frost penetration, much of that moisture may simple run off in the RRV.
A good climate summary of our August and summer overall from local Winnipeg stats guy JJCwpg. See:
ReplyDeletehttp://privaterecords.weebly.com/monthly-summaries