It will be back to winter like weather over southern Manitoba Monday as a storm system intensifies over the Dakotas and tracks into northern Minnesota by Monday night. A band of snow is expected to spread into the Winnipeg area by mid morning Monday, with snow intensifying through midday into the afternoon before tapering off Monday evening. Snowfall accumulations will be tricky as some of the snow will be melting on impact, and there will be milder air over southeast MB that will change snow to rain for awhile over parts of southeast MB. For Winnipeg, precipitation should remain as snow with a good 5-10 cm expected by late afternoon, and perhaps 10-13 cm by the time it ends Monday evening if we get under some heavier bands. The best bet for heaviest snow will be towards the Ontario border where 10-20 cm is possible Monday into Monday night.
UPDATE: (9:30 am Monday): Latest guidance and radar indicating Winnipeg will be on western edge of this system with bulk of snow mainly east and southeast of the city. Winnipeg will likely still see some wet snow by late morning into this afternoon, but amounts should be minimal with perhaps 2 cm or less on grassy surfaces. Roads will just be wet. Wet snow may even mix with rain here at times today as temperatures stay above freezing. Heavier snow will be confined just to the east and southeast of Winnipeg in places like Steinbach, Whiteshell and Falcon Lake where 5-15 cm of snow is possible through this evening.
How unusual is heavy snow in late April?
Although not common, snowstorms are certainly not unheard of in late April or even May in Winnipeg and the Red River valley. Consider these top 10 late season snowfalls (daily) that have occurred in Winnipeg after April 15th. As the table shows, heavy snowfalls have occurred in Winnipeg well into the 3rd week of May.
TOP 10 LARGEST DAILY SNOWFALLS AFTER APRIL 15
(WINNIPEG DATA 1872 - 2016)
1. 29.0 cm ............ May 11 2004
2. 21.1 cm ............ May 1 1967
3. 20.8 cm ............ Apr 27 1966
4. 20.3 cm ............ May 19 1931
5. 20.0 cm ............ May 9 2002
6. 17.3 cm ............ Apr 24 1937
7. 16.5 cm ............ Apr 25 1960
8. 15.2 cm ............ May 20 1882
9. 14.0 cm ............ Apr 19 1996
10. 13.0 cm ........... May 5 1938
In 1958, a full fledged blizzard hit Winnipeg on April 28th with 5-10 cm of snow blown by 80-100 km/h winds along with frigid temperatures of -10 to -13C.