Monday, April 10, 2017
Dry April weather continues.. next significant rain threat Friday.
It's been a dry spring so far in southern MB, welcome news for residents in the Red River valley who were looking at potentially major flooding this spring. There has been no measurable precipitation so far in April in Winnipeg and much of the RRV, and this week is also looking dry, until Friday. (There is a slight chance of some light showers Tuesday night, but amounts will not be significant). The next threat of any appreciable rain over the Red River valley will be Friday as a storm system tracks through the Interlake bringing a band of rain across southern MB. Early indications are for rainfall amounts of 5-15 mm with this system, but it's still several days away and there's still a lot of model spread on overall precip amounts. Colder weather will follow in the wake of this system for Easter weekend, with even a chance of snowflurries for Easter Sunday. Long range guidance is indicating the potential for another precipitation bearing system over southern MB for the April 17-19th time period.
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Latest guidance has rain in Winnipeg mainly between noon and midnight Friday, with about 5-10 mm falling. So Friday morning looking dry right now.. and Saturday looking mainly rain free as well and mild (highs near 13C). Things change Saturday night into Sunday morning as cold front pushes through with rain possibly changing to some.. uggh, snow.. Easter Sunday. Could be seeing a coating of the white stuff on those Easter eggs Sunday morning!
ReplyDeleteLooks like that last system missed us entirely Rob. Do you think these actually a good shot at seeing some snow on Sunday? I'm hoping for one more coating of snow before the season is done!
ReplyDeleteMatthew.. Right now, some snow is looking likely for early Sunday morning for Winnipeg and area.. with perhaps 1-2 cm possible. Still a few days away yet, so forecast can change as we get closer.. but that's what it looks like right now.
DeleteModels trending lower with rainfall amounts pushing through Winnipeg/RRV Friday.. mainly between late pm and midnight. Now looks like only 2-5 mm for most areas.. possibly 5-10 mm in some spots under locally heavier rainbands. Rain moves out Friday night with a decent Saturday, before cold front ushers in much colder weather for Easter Sunday.. along with a chance of some snow leaving a coating to 2 cm in some areas.
ReplyDeleteCanadian RDPS model really cranking up the convection with that band of showers pushing thru RRV Friday evening.. giving some 25 mm to Winnipeg. Right now, it and its cousin GDPS, are the only models showing anything like that… All other models have the band going through with fairly light amounts. So right now the Canadian models are are the outliers showing the heavier precip. We'll see how models trend tonight into tomorrow.
DeleteOther models are now buying onto Canadian model solution with N-S band of convection firing up over the RRV this evening, with some embedded thunderstorms likely along with locally heavy downpours. It's a fairly narrow band and should move off to our east fairly quickly, so that should keep overall rainfall amounts in the 5-15 mm range. However, some locally heavier amounts of 15-25 mm possible under bands of heavier convection. We'll see where and when this line of convection fires up, but should be somewhere over the western RRV by 6 pm then heading east this evening.
DeleteThen a convection did fire up pretty much as models suggested but went through fairly quickly through Winnipeg and the Red river valley with only a couple millimetres here. Heavier cells were concentrated mainly over the southern Interlake with a few embedded thunderstorms through there.
ReplyDeleteGood news.. looks like we won't be seeing any snow flurries on Easter Sunday. We should be getting a band of showers coming through along a cold front tonight with perhaps 5 to 10 mm. Then just generally cloudy and cooler for Easter Sunday but temperatures around +5. Not quite as cold as earlier model runs were suggesting which lowers the snow threat.
ReplyDeleteWell.. what do you know.. we got those flurries after all today.
DeleteHey! Long time watcher/follower, love the site and input! I'm just looking for a decently priced weather station and am hoping for some advice. Been threw 10 of those crappy national geo ones and am not buying another one.
ReplyDeleteHi there.. It depends on your budget. For under $100, you can dry the Ambient weather stations which do a decent job. If you want to spend more ($500 and up), Davis is a popular choice (which is what I've always had)
DeleteCorrection.. I meant Acu-rite stations, not Ambient.
DeleteCostco currently has a well priced Acu-rite weather station that connects to Weather Underground. I'd get it if my wife would let me!
DeleteRob, what's the latest on the long range heading into May? Are we headed for perhaps more consistent spring warmth or will we continue to see the ups and downs like we've seen in the last couple of weeks?
ReplyDeleteTough to say.. not a long of strong signals right now to indicate one way or another. Looks like a gradual warming trend over southern MB this week, then getting more variable by next weekend. After that.. no clear signals at this point. I know that's not much of an answer, but unfortunately there's just not enough info right now to give further insight that far out.
DeleteRob looks like we did get those snow flurries yesterday. We had some flurries this morning too. It's a pretty chilly day out there and I don't think temperatures will even reach the freezing mark today. Warmest I saw was a -0.8 reading at 2PM. Looks like it'll warm this weekend and then cool down again early next week. Quite a cold day today is for mid April though.
ReplyDeleteDid you measure any snow accumulation at your site yesterday?
Matthew.. No I didn't. Had some wet flurries but they melted on impact. Just a "trace" accumulation. Still doing pretty good for April.. 86% of our Aprils have had at least one day of measurable snow during the month.
DeleteHad 5 cm with that snowy burst this morning, with 7 mm water equivalent on top of 2 mm of rain that preceded the snowfall. We get a break tomorrow, then another shot of snow comes in Monday as a storm system develops over North Dakota. This one will be more of a widespread synoptic system affecting much of southern MB, with 10-15 cm possible Monday into Monday night over the RRV and SE MB.. including Winnipeg. After dodging snow most of April, we get all of it near the the end.
ReplyDeleteRob, as the month of May nears, are there any signs that points towards warmer weather going into May or are caught up in an extended period of below normal temps of which would continue into early May
ReplyDeleteThanks.
Looks like cooler than normal conditions to start May, but after that, not a lot to indicate one way or another at this time.
DeleteWell, back to winter tomorrow as a storm system intensifies over the Dakotas Monday and tracks into northern Minnesota Monday night. Looks like a band of snow spreading into the Winnipeg area by 8-9 am Monday morning, then snow intensifying through midday into the afternoon before tapering off Monday evening. Snowfall accumulations will be tricky as some of the snow will be melting on impact, and there will be some milder air over southeast MB that will change the snow to rain for awhile Monday over parts of southern RRV and SE MB. For Winnipeg, precip should remain as all snow with a good 5-10 cm by afternoon, and perhaps 10-13 cm by the time it ends Monday evening if we get under some heavier bands. Best bet for heaviest snow will be over Whiteshell region where 10-20 cm is possible by Monday night.
ReplyDelete