Tuesday, October 06, 2015

Some rain on the way Wednesday, then clearing skies with a warm Thanksgiving weekend ahead

A quick moving low pressure system will cross southern Manitoba Wednesday bringing an area of rain into the Red River valley by mid to late afternoon into the evening. The bulk of the rain is expected between 4 pm and midnight in Winnipeg and the RRV with general amounts of 5-10 mm expected. Amounts up to 15 mm are possible in some areas where embedded convection will generate locally heavier showers at times. Rain will move out of southern Manitoba overnight Wednesday with clearing skies expected Thursday as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. That ridge will cross southern Manitoba Friday bringing sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the mid teens.

The outlook for Thanksgiving weekend looks fantastic with well above normal temperatures expected. As the ridge moves east of Manitoba, a southwest flow of unseasonably warm air will spread across all of the Prairies Saturday and Sunday, sending temperatures soaring into the 20s along with plenty of sunshine. Temperatures in Winnipeg could be approaching record highs by Sunday (current record high for Sunday Oct 11th is 26.1C on Oct 11 1942) A cold front is forecast to push through southern MB Sunday evening with a chance of showers, followed by  somewhat cooler conditions for holiday Monday (but still above normal with highs of 16-18C) All in all, looks like a great holiday weekend to enjoy fall weather at its finest!   

7 comments:

  1. A happy Thanks-giving to everyone and enjoy the nice weekend.

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    1. You too Don! Should be a good one!

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  2. Saturday looking like an overachieving day temperature wise for Winnipeg as we get a favourable SW surface wind by the afternoon. 925 mb temps climb to 19C which translates to a high of 25 or 26C. Record high for Saturday (Oct 10) in Winnipeg is 27.8C in 1934 which is likely out of reach, but 26C at this time of year will feel awfully nice! Sunday looks just as warm, although core of warmest air aloft pulls off during the afternoon and we get into some increasing clouds. Still, another 25-26C day likely, close to record high for the date. 27-28C temps possible over southern RRV/SE MB Sunday.

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  3. NOTE: I moved my anemometer to rooftop level this afternoon (as of 3 pm), so my station should be providing better wind speeds now. They still won't be airport quality since I live in a residential area surrounded by homes and trees, but it's better than ground level winds. Should be seeing some decent south winds this afternoon into evening, then strong NW winds early Monday morning behind a cold front.

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  4. That's going to be quite the cold front going through Sunday night. Very strong NW winds setting up behind front with gusts of 70-80 km/h possible after midnight Sunday into Monday morning. Some rain will accompany the front (perhaps 5-10 mm) and then sharply cooler for Monday with highs barely reaching 10C (models have backed off considerably on that earlier forecast of 16-18C for Monday)

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  5. Not as sunny as I thought it was going to be today.. Lots of mid and high level cloud sweeping over the Prairies spilling over the upper ridge to our west. Hopefully these clouds thin out this afternoon and we see sunnier skies, otherwise we won't be hitting those 25C temps.. more like 20C instead. Still way above normal but not as summerlike as I was hoping.

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    1. Got up to 22C in Winnipeg today, not quite as warm as I was expecting thanks to all that high cloud over us. Warmer to our southwest with highs of 25-27C from Dauphin to Emerson, with Gretna hitting 27.3C as the hot spot today. Even warmer to our south with highs cracking 30C in parts of North Dakota, including Bismarck at 32C. This ties 1910 as their latest 90F on record there (91F on Oct 10 1910) Looks like another warm one Sunday, and hopefully with a little more sunshine so that Winnipeg can join the 25C club!

      Then look out for Sunday night into Monday. Strong cold front plowing through will usher in very strong NW winds behind it and falling temperatures. Looks like gusts of 70-90 km/h possible for a few hours across much of southern MB including Winnipeg and RRV. Strongest winds in Winnipeg expected between 4 am and noon Monday. Will be some wicked winds and waves on the MB lakes. Sharply cooler Monday with highs barely recovering in the double digits.. quite the change from Sunday.

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