I am beginning to be convinced that Late September and October are not good months to visit the east coast. Computer models and Hurricane forecasters appear to suffer from brain fog after the Sun crosses the equator to begin the autumnal equinox. It is also when these wicked storms start to be created much closer to North America, many even in the Gulf and continue to do so until all Saints eve. And in Canada the month following provides s with the craziest weather extremes. If Joaquin doesn't call for a wake up on Global Warning nothing will. This Cat3,4 or 5 hurricane that was predicted as a little storm has been sitting over the Bahamas for 2 days just over a hundred miles from Miami fl . The storm surge alone was higher than many of the islands and homes inland were facing up to 7 foot high water at their doors before the full extent reached Two days ago . Those islands have been out of communication ever since as it tore down the cell phone towers and is still raging. Some places went thru several high tides and are still under water. As a fellow commonwealth country has any one (harper) even responded to this disaster or is Steven praying we don't notice a storm that up to 24 hours ago was supposed to hit all 4 of our Maritime Provinces . This storm qualifies if it were in the pacific as a super typhoon. And it is now headed for Bermuda and perhaps the UK
This is still over the Bahamas but has turned around and is heading back to Bermuda. A few minutes ago 1130 edt as I type this a recon plane measured its winds at 155 mph And moving ne 16 mph . This was just a few minutes too late for the 11.00 am National Hurricane Center Bulletin which said it had winds of 130mph cat 3 and were diminishing. The attached blog comment on Jeff Masters Blog is the shortest way of saying this with a prediction of the NHS 12 noon update. It does prove that the global warming has accelerated so much that the computer models and the best weather forecasters and computers have been totally baffled by this storm
Comment 580. MysteryMeat 10:59 AM CDT on October 03, 2015 NHC @ 11 am Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus, calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler waters.
Sorry to be so lengthy Rob , but what is it about the sun crossing the equator in either direction makes forecasting a crapshoot. (A month either side of spring presents fits for us as well )
Don.. I'm not sure that the fall equinox had any bearing on the difficulty with forecasting Joaquin. This was a very challenging storm to forecast as steering winds were very weak which meant this strong storm was basically a spinning top in the Atlantic until steering winds became a little stronger to move it. Overall, I think NHC did a reasonable job to relay the uncertainty with the track of this storm in the initial stages, and then were consistent in keeping the storm out to sea once better steering patterns came into play.
What I find fascinating is the incredible fire hose of rain aimed at South Carolina these past 3 days with persistent bands of convection coming off the Atlantic, partially fed by tropical moisture from Joaquin. Absolutely staggering rainfall amounts over the past 3 days in South Carolina with widespread amounts of 300-600 mm (1-2 FEET) leading to catastrophic flooding in that state. These are unprecedented rainfall numbers in this area, with return periods of 1 in 1000+ years. Damages will likely be in the billions, and the hurricane didn't even come anywhere close to them! (A warmer more humid climate seems to be supporting a greater frequency of extreme rainfall events around the world..)
I am beginning to be convinced that Late September and October are not good months to visit the east coast. Computer models and Hurricane forecasters appear to suffer from brain fog after the Sun crosses the equator to begin the autumnal equinox. It is also when these wicked storms start to be created much closer to North America, many even in the Gulf and continue to do so until all Saints eve. And in Canada the month following provides s with the craziest weather extremes.
ReplyDeleteIf Joaquin doesn't call for a wake up on Global Warning nothing will. This Cat3,4 or 5 hurricane that was predicted as a little storm has been sitting over the Bahamas for 2 days just over a hundred miles from Miami fl . The storm surge alone was higher than many of the islands and homes inland were facing up to 7 foot high water at their doors before the full extent reached Two days ago . Those islands have been out of communication ever since as it tore down the cell phone towers and is still raging. Some places went thru several high tides and are still under water.
As a fellow commonwealth country has any one (harper) even responded to this disaster or is Steven praying we don't notice a storm that up to 24 hours ago was supposed to hit all 4 of our Maritime Provinces . This storm qualifies if it were in the pacific as a super typhoon. And it is now headed for Bermuda and perhaps the UK
This is still over the Bahamas but has turned around and is heading back to Bermuda. A few minutes ago 1130 edt as I type this a recon plane measured its winds at 155 mph And moving ne 16 mph . This was just a few minutes too late for the 11.00 am National Hurricane Center Bulletin which said it had winds of 130mph cat 3 and were diminishing.
The attached blog comment on Jeff Masters Blog is the shortest way of saying this with a prediction of the NHS 12 noon update. It does prove that the global warming has accelerated so much that the computer models and the best weather forecasters and computers have been totally baffled by this storm
Comment 580. MysteryMeat
10:59 AM CDT on October 03, 2015
NHC @ 11 am
Despite the small increase in the initial intensity, the NHC
forecast, which is very close to the intensity model consensus,
calls for gradual weakening due to increasing shear and cooler
waters.
NHC @ noon
*#@&$:
Sorry to be so lengthy Rob , but what is it about the sun crossing the equator in either direction makes forecasting a crapshoot. (A month either side of spring presents fits for us as well )
ReplyDeleteDon.. I'm not sure that the fall equinox had any bearing on the difficulty with forecasting Joaquin. This was a very challenging storm to forecast as steering winds were very weak which meant this strong storm was basically a spinning top in the Atlantic until steering winds became a little stronger to move it. Overall, I think NHC did a reasonable job to relay the uncertainty with the track of this storm in the initial stages, and then were consistent in keeping the storm out to sea once better steering patterns came into play.
ReplyDeleteWhat I find fascinating is the incredible fire hose of rain aimed at South Carolina these past 3 days with persistent bands of convection coming off the Atlantic, partially fed by tropical moisture from Joaquin. Absolutely staggering rainfall amounts over the past 3 days in South Carolina with widespread amounts of 300-600 mm (1-2 FEET) leading to catastrophic flooding in that state. These are unprecedented rainfall numbers in this area, with return periods of 1 in 1000+ years. Damages will likely be in the billions, and the hurricane didn't even come anywhere close to them! (A warmer more humid climate seems to be supporting a greater frequency of extreme rainfall events around the world..)