Sunday, October 11, 2015

Powerful winds expected overnight through Monday morning.. gusts of 100 km/h or more expected.

After an unseasonably warm and pleasant Thanksgiving weekend, the weather will be taking a dramatic turn tonight into Monday as a pair of cold fronts push across southern Manitoba. The first cold front is pushing through this evening and will shift balmy south breezes into the west with temperatures falling into the teens. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible along this front with westerly wind gusts of 60 km/h possible. The second cold front will be pushing through the RRV early Monday morning, ushering in powerful NW winds and much cooler temperatures in the single digits.. a dramatic difference from Sunday's almost summerlike weather. The big story Monday however will be the winds.. with sustained north to NW winds of 60-70 km/h gusting to 100 km/h or more at times. This can lead to roof and tree damage as well as local power outages.  The strongest winds are expected between 4 am and noon in Winnipeg and the RRV, before the winds start diminishing somewhat in the afternoon (but still strong into the early evening)        

Note that a rare STORM force wind warning has been issued for Lake Manitoba and the south basin of Lake Winnipeg for Monday morning. Storm force wind warnings are issued for winds of 48 knots (90 km/h) or greater on the lakes. These warnings are seldom issued and are used only for the strongest windstorms on the lakes. As a result, mariners and cottage owners need to be prepared for very strong north to northwest winds off the south end of the lakes gusting to 100 km/h or more overnight through Monday morning, with major crashing waves causing local shoreline erosion. This is NOT a time to be on the water, so stay onshore Monday until winds subside.

So batten down the hatches.. a major change in the weather is on the way!  

POST SUMMARY..

Strongest wind gusts reported Oct 12 2015 
(EC and MB ag-wx stations) 

Starbuck .............. 104 km/h
Gretna ..................100 km/h
Victoria Beach ....... 96 km/h
Emerson ................ 96 km/h
Elm Creek ............. 96 km/h
Altona ..................  95 km/h
Winnipeg .............. 94 km/h
Treherne ............... 94 km/h
Morris ................... 86 km/h
Gimli ..................... 86 km/h


8 comments:

  1. Nice little October thunderstorm in Winnipeg this evening.

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  2. That was quite the wind. I came home to find my wood stack pushed over and a large Rubbermaid deck box (4 ft x 3ft) completely exploded and contents lying all over the backyard. And it was on the protected south side of the house.

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  3. Rob is there a chance for lake effect snow later?

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  4. Hi rob I think a few people are wondering what your predictions will be for our upcoming winter Season. With this El Niño in effect what can we expect for Winnipeg and western Manitoba like Brandon?

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    1. Kevin..

      This year's El Nino, which is shaping up to be one of the strongest on record, is expected to have a big influence on the winter weather pattern over the Prairies, including southern MB. A strong El Nino favours warmer than normal temperatures through the winter for us, with below normal snowfall as the jet stream steers to our north. It doesn't mean a complete lack of cold or snow.. just less frequency of those episodes occurring over the winter.

      For the record, this El Nino is looking like the strongest since 1997, which resulted in the 2nd warmest winter on record over southern MB.

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  5. Hey Rob,

    With october coming to an end do you see any potential snow in the long range forecast or is November going to be snow free?

    Thoughts?

    Thanks

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    1. Jeff.. At this point, there are no signs of any significant snowfall over Winnipeg or RRV over the next week or two as we stay generally above normal. The strong El Nino pattern appears to be maintaining the mild autumn weather pattern into November and delaying the onset of winter. Correlations with strong EL Nino patterns of the past suggests a greater liklihood of warmer than normal temperatures continuing through the winter, along with below normal snowfall. But it would be highly unlikely that we'd be snowfree through November.. Since 1872, there have been only two Novembers without at least 1 cm of snow for the month (1928 and 1939) The last strong El Nino in 1997, Winnipeg recorded 17 cm of snow in November, but it was all gone by the end of the month with only a trace left on the ground. December 1997 was very mild and dry with only 7 cm of snow the whole month, and only a trace of snow on the ground at Christmas. This shows that we will still get snowfall in El Nino years, but the mild temperatures prevents it from accumulating much, at least in the early part of the winter. Hopefully that's the case this year as well. The longer we can put off snow on the ground, the greater the chance of a mild winter.

      I will be updating my blog with a new post this afternoon with more info.

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