Tuesday, February 12, 2013

Variable pattern ahead..

The weather over the next week or so will be characterized by a variable and generally dry pattern, with alternating spells of above and below normal temperatures. Pleasantly mild conditions today and Wednesday and will drop to below normal temperatures by Thursday behind a weak clipper passing to the southwest of Manitoba. Dry and seasonably cold, but not abnormally cold, conditions are expected Thursday and Friday before another warmup over the weekend, albeit accompanied by brisk southerly winds Saturday. Colder weather is forecast to follow early next week. At this point, generally dry weather with no significant snowfall is expected over southern Manitoba over the next week or so, although there may be some light snowfalls from time to time as we transition from one airmass to another.  
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15 comments:

  1. rob5:56 PM, February 12, 2013

    Beautiful day out there today.. nice to finally feel like spring! At least for one day :)

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  2. Garth6:09 PM, February 12, 2013

    I almost forgot how nice -1C was. Unfortunately winter isn't over yet.

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  3. Anonymous6:49 AM, February 13, 2013

    Yuck, not liking the ECMWF when it comes to cold next week.. At this rate, we're going to be talking about 15 consecutive colder than normal months.. We're already at 4, February would make it 5.

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  4. Anonymous11:12 AM, February 13, 2013

    Rob,

    With indications of colder temps next week, how cold is expected to be here next week, like - 30C cold?

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  5. rob1:32 PM, February 13, 2013

    I would say that highs in the mid minus teens, and lows in the mid minus 20s look like a good bet. I suppose -30C is possible at night given a clear sky and light winds, but it doesn't look as cold as the January cold snap, so I wouldn't expected a prolonged period of -20/-30C weather.

    It should be noted that record lows for Winnipeg through February are still around the -40C mark, with -30s through March.. so -30C weather in mid February would not be extraordinary.. (unwelcome, but not extraordinary)

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  6. Anonymous7:58 PM, February 13, 2013

    Rob, do you think this weekend's forecast temps are too warm for us and that we will likely remain below freezing?

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  7. Anonymous8:38 AM, February 14, 2013

    Hi Rob,

    Any thoughts on this weekend snow?
    Is it a clipper or Colorado low?
    WN has now posted 5 - 10 cm.

    Thanks.

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  8. rob10:00 AM, February 14, 2013

    @anonymous..

    Latest guidance has a clipper system crossing southern MB into the Dakotas Sunday afternoon into Monday spreading an area of snow over Winnipeg/RRV mainly Sunday afternoon through Sunday night into Monday morning. Still a ways out, but at this point, a general 5 cm is being forecast for Winnipeg with this system, and we'll see if it trends higher with later guidance.

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  9. Jeff11:45 AM, February 14, 2013

    Thanks Rob.

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  10. rob2:09 PM, February 14, 2013

    12Z GGEM brings a more prolonged snow event for Winnipeg/RRV Sunday into Monday, with 15-20 cm by Monday evening. Other guidance have much less snow, so I wouldn't jump on the GGEM solution yet as there's still a fair amount of disagreement about snowfall amounts, especially during the day Sunday. Will have to wait on updated guidance to see how they trend, but the potential is growing for a decent snowfall event Sunday into Monday.

    Looks like some gusty north winds developing on the backside Sunday night into Monday as well, which would lead to blowing and drifting snow issues.

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  11. Anonymous9:40 PM, February 14, 2013

    You've really hit the jackpot with the spammers Rob!

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  12. rob7:46 AM, February 15, 2013

    Yeah.. the power of the internet. :/ I have a spam blocker for my blog but some spam still gets through unfortunately. I try to remove them as soon as I see them, but sometimes I'm not on the blog for awhile. Thank goodness for that spam blocker.. my spam folder is filled every day with dozens of spam posts. Ridiculous.

    As for the weather.. looks like models have backed off on the snow amounts for Winnipeg for Sunday ahead of this next clipper (with bulk of snow through the Interlake), but still bring in better snow chances Sunday night into Monday as the clipper tracks by us and we get a shot of colder air behind it, along with increasing northerly winds. GGEM still giving the highest snow amounts for Winnipeg of about 15 cm Sunday afternoon to Tuesday morning, with other guidance in the 5-10 cm range.

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  13. Garth9:47 AM, February 15, 2013

    The extended Meteocode is showing 9 to 19 cm snow total into Tuesday morning. Yes, it's entirely automated, but still an interesting amount of snow.

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  14. Anonymous7:55 AM, February 16, 2013

    E.C. has posted a Special Weather Statement for us regarding tomorrow and Monday's storm with snow and and blowing snow and strong winds Monday.

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  15. rob8:48 AM, February 16, 2013

    Euro has come on board with higher snowfall amounts Sunday night into Monday.. around the 10 cm range, up from its 2-5 cm projection on earlier runs. General concensus still in the 5-10 cm range for Winnipeg mainly Sunday night into Monday morning, although 10-15 cm possible depending on where heavier bands set up. Monday will be interesting with strong northerly winds picking up on backside of clipper as it moves east of RRV.. so snow and blowing snow will be an issue, as highlighted by special wx statement. Will try to get an updated blog entry today on this incoming system..

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