A welcome break from the cold of the past couple of weeks will be on the way this week as a persistent Arctic airmass over southern MB eases its grip. As a result, temperatures will be rising to more normal values for this time of year, with highs around minus 10C much of the upcoming week, as opposed to the frigid minus 20 and minus 30 readings of the past little while. In its place will be a moderating flow of air from the west which will be characterized by occasional clipper systems passing through southern Manitoba this week, each bringing a round of snow. The first clipper is expected Monday, with snow arriving in Winnipeg and the RRV sometime in the afternoon and lasting into the evening. About 2-5 cm is possible with this system which will likely impact the Monday drive home. The next clipper is forecast for Wednesday with another 5 cm possible, with higher amounts of 5-10 cm predicted by some models. Additional flurry activity is possible by the weekend along with a push of milder air that will likely give us a period of above normal temperatures for a few days.
JANUARY 2013 stats: January 2013 ended up with a mean monthly temperature of -16.7C at YWG airport, just slightly (0.3C) below the 1981-2010 January normal of -16.4C. A mild start to the month boosted the overall average that compensated for a very cold finish. In fact, the month was actually 1.1C ABOVE normal if the older 1971-2000 normals were used (January mean of -17.8C) This shows how mild Januarys have become over the past decade or so. Snowfall in January (as measured at my station) was 40.2 cm, bringing the seasonal total to 115 cm though January 31st. Normal seasonal snowfall for Winnipeg is 110 cm. Last year, we had a total snowfall of 80 cm for the entire winter.
That's a lot of snow thus far. Thanks for the heads up on the clipper, will get my crew ready for Thursday morning.
ReplyDeleteSo that's now 4 months in a row below normal. Hopefully that streak ends this month
DeleteHow cold are we supposed to get this eve into over night? Are the winds supposed to pick up or stay Low over night?
ReplyDeleteArea of light snow moving into Winnipeg and northern RRV this morning, but steadier heavier snow is still upstream over western MB and eastern SK. Snow should pick up in intensity here in Winnipeg this afternoon with 2-4 cm still looking on track into this evening.
ReplyDeleteThanks again for the update Rob!
ReplyDeleteYou're welcome. Latest radar trends and model guidance show the main swath of snow with today's clipper tracking mainly to the west and southwest of Winnipeg from the Yorkton to Pilot Mound/southern RRV areas where 5 to 8 cm is possible today into this evening. But again, Winnipeg and northern RRV will still see some snow as well, with 2-4 cm possible this afternoon into this evening.
ReplyDeletePortage and Dauphin both reporting 1 mile visibility in snow. Looks like area of steady snow is just northwest of Winnipeg and should be spreading into city within the hour or so..
ReplyDeleteSteady snow in Winnipeg now with visibilities down to 1 mile or less at times. We should be in this snow for at least the next 3-4 hours with snowfall rates of 1 cm/hr or so, with snowfall totals on the higher end of that 2-4 cm estimate by this evening, more like 4 or 5 cm based on current trends. Expect a slower commute home due to the snow and slippery conditions.
ReplyDeleteCalling it 4 cm at my place in River Park South. A little bit of drifting snow this afternoon diminished exactitude a little today.
ReplyDeleteJJ
Thanks JJ.. I had similar amounts at my place, about 4-4.5 cm.
ReplyDeleteNext clipper moves in Wednesday.. looks similar to Monday's clipper with slightly lower amounts, about 2-3 cm for Winnipeg according to latest model estimates. Timing will be a little sooner in the day than Monday's clipper, with snow moving in from the west in the morning, hopefully after the morning rush hour but some light snow could be moving in by 8 am or so. Bulk of snow should be through by mid afternoon.
EC says 5 cm now for Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteI hope your right Rob. I am sick of snow now.
Thanks for the updates. Much appreciated.
Actually getting some flurries this evening just out of the blue. We can't get a break from snow this winter, complete opposite of last winter this year.
ReplyDeleteECMWF is looking like its doing a flip.
ReplyDeleteLast week's weekly showed the arctic air moving to the other side of the pole, bringing us milder temps then what we are used to.
Now its showing that ridge build up in the west again locking us into another cold snap.
Starting to get more snow in Grand Forks finally...as we have had about half of Winnipeg's total this winter so far. Seasonal snowfall at NWS Grand Forks has been 22.7 in (57.7 cm) thru Feb 5th...
ReplyDeleteMight get some snow with more of a Colorado low - upper low feature late in the weekend...
Christopher Allard,
ReplyDeletePerhaps it's just that the myth about Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Regina, etc being sunny cities in the winter is just that - a bloody myth. Maybe it's slightly sunnier than the Ontario snowbelts, but not enough to make up for the lower sun and shorter days compared to Ontario.
I have lived in the Prairies for a decade and have never seen a sunny December or January. February tends to be sunnier, not just because of longer days but fewer storm systems overall.
Area of light snow starting to spread into Winnipeg, but looks like bulk of snowfall with this clipper will be mainly southwest of the city, down through Morden area. Still looking at a couple cm for the city today, with 5 to 8 cm possible to our southwest.
ReplyDeleteChristopher..
ReplyDeleteWelcome back to Winnipeg!
Yes, this winter has been snowier than normal, not necessarily due to heavy snowfalls, but more so to the frequency, as we seem to be getting 2-5 cm snowfalls every few days over the past few weeks. That would also explain the lack of sunshine.. with frequent systems passing through bringing cloud and snowfall. This is consistent with a storm track that is close by, which is what we've seen this winter.
As of yesterday, I've measured 120 cm so far this winter, which is about 10 cm more than the average for the entire winter. Yes, last winter was certainly an anomaly, but even the winter before that was low on snow here. So we've had a couple winters now where we haven't seen much snow. The winter of 2008-09 was similar to this year in term of snowfall, but people tend to forget quickly what winters can be like here. I don't have snowfall stats off hand over the past decade, but I'll try to get those to give you an idea of what snowfall trends have been like.
February can often be a sunnier month, since it's the driest month on average and days start getting longer. March can be back to more gloomy conditions as the storm track gets more active as we get into spring. Overall, not all winters are bright and sunny here.. especially since we've been trending warmer over the past decade or so which tends to mean more cloud.
Hi Rob,
ReplyDeleteI've noticed models flip flopping on the upcoming pattern for mid month and on with suggestion last week that we may have been done with the real arctic air as it would retreat back to the otherside of the pole but now this week models especially the ECMWF is reversing that idea and putting us back into a cold snap by around the 14th or so because of a building ridge of the B.C. coast.
I know long range is not really your expertise but at a quick glance what are your thoughts as too what might unfold going forward towards mid month and on?
Christopher..
ReplyDeleteA correction on my earlier snow stats..
Last winter was indeed mild and snow free, but the winter before that (2010-11) was similar to this winter, with 117 cm of snow by the end of January. We totalled 148 cm by the end of April that year. The winter of 2009-10 was also a very tame winter, with only 80 cm from Nov-Apr (most of it over Dec,Jan and Feb)
Overall, we're running above normal this winter, but it's nothing extraordinary compared to other winters. We've just been getting spoiled more frequently over the past decade or so.
Anonymous..
ReplyDeleteGiven the lack of consistency in the models' long range outlooks, I really can't give much more insight into what the weather will be like later this month. I see the AO index is trending negative this month which would support colder than normal conditions for us, but again, I don't have a lot of faith given the lack of model consistency right now. I'm hoping for the best since, like many people, I'm really looking forward to some warmer weather.
Heavier snow definitely slipping by to our south.. probably no more than a dusting here in the city today.
ReplyDeleteRob, i've noticed indications of a developing colorado low-upper level system later this weekend.
ReplyDeleteAny potential for a bigger type snow event this weekend for us?
Current guidance takes that Colorado low into the Great Lakes, with the heaviest snow mainly from South Dakota through Minnesota into Lake Superior area. Looks like it misses us to the southeast at this point..
ReplyDeleteMainly sunny out there now.. Forecasts didn't fair too well in Winnipeg today. That's what happens when we're on the leading edge of the system..
ReplyDeleteStill looking like frigid weather on the way again starting around Feb 14.
ReplyDeleteSome of the models have really shifted northwards with Sunday/Monday's Colorado Low (NAM/GFS namely). Would be a significant snowfall with blowing snow under their scenarios right now. Will have to be monitored closely to see if the trend continues.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteAny update on Sunday's snow?
thanks!!
The stronger sun we have now and all this snow on the ground and light winds have made a perfect 'heat island' scenario today. Highs between -9 and -13°C within city limits today, but only got to -15°C at the airport thanks to the snow-covered fields. It's currently 5 degrees warmer at The Forks versus the airport.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. Models have been trending north with Sunday's system, with the NAM the most bullish on amounts over southern MB. GFS is showing system just clipping SE MB while Euro and GEM still show a miss to the southeast of us. Will have to wait on a few more model runs to see if this north trend becomes more consistent.
ReplyDelete12Z NAM has backed off a bit on our snow for Sunday, but still giving Winnipeg 5-10 cm, with 10-20 cm indicated over SE MB. NAM still the most bullish on this system, with most other guidance still indicating a hit further southeast, with a dusting to 2 cm for Winnipeg, and higher amounts towards Sprague. Will continue to monitor trends to see any changes one way or the other..
ReplyDeleteNWS GFK has issued a blizzard watch from Grand Forks southward for Sunday afternoon into Monday, and expanded their winter storm watch northwest to cover Devils lake basin up to Cdn border. Guidance still suggests worst of this storm will stay south of the border, but southern RRV and SE MB could be seeing some impacts on the fringe of this system later Sunday though Sunday night.
ReplyDelete