Saturday, February 16, 2013
Clipper system to bring snow and blowing snow over Red River valley Sunday night into Monday
An Alberta clipper system is forecast to track across southern Manitoba Sunday into Sunday night bringing a variety of weather conditions to the Red River Valley over the next 24 to 48 hours. In advance of the system Sunday, southerly winds will spread in milder air over the Red River valley with temperatures rising towards the freezing mark, along with a risk of ice pellets or freezing rain. As the system tracks east of Winnipeg Sunday evening, winds will shift into the north drawing in colder air with periods of snow developing Sunday night. In general, about 5 cm of snow is expected for Winnipeg Sunday night into Monday morning although up to 10 cm is possible if more persistent snow bands set up across the city. Of greater concern will be the increasing northerly winds Sunday night into Monday morning with gusts to 60 or 70 km/h expected, giving poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow throughout the Red River valley. Prepare for poor highway conditions Monday if you plan to travel. Conditions are expected to improve Monday afternoon into Monday evening as winds subside. The northerly winds will also be bringing in colder air Monday with temperatures falling into the mid minus teens and wind chills in the minus 20s. Sunny and cold but calmer weather is expected Tuesday into Thursday.
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Ice pellets and ice rain is very heavy here near the border, hope this eases up.
ReplyDeleteChris in Westwood, 10:20AM Sunday 17th Feb. Just stepped outside for a brief chore. I'd swear that is a light drizzle carried with the wind.
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg Airport Terminal Area Forecast looks bleak after 8pm local time tonite.
ReplyDeleteTAF AMD CYWG 17 15-22Z 1715/1812 17022G32KT 3SM IC BLSN OVC007 TEMPO
1715/1720 6SM -SN BLSN OVC010 PROB30 1715/1720 5SM -FZRA -PL BR OVC008
FM172000 17012KT P6SM OVC008 TEMPO 1720/1724 2SM -SN -FZDZ BR OVC006
BECMG 1722/1724 08008KT 2SM -SN
FM180200 03012KT 11/2SM -SN VV012 TEMPO 1802/1805 3/4SM -SN VV008
FM180500 02022G32KT 1/2SM SN BLSN VV004 TEMPO 1805/1810 1/4SM +SN BLSN VV002
FM181000 36025G35KT 3/4SM -SN BLSN VV006 TEMPO 1810/1812 2SM -SN BLSN VV015
The NWS office in FGF has blizzard and winter storm watches out for most of their CWA. Wouldn't be too surprising if we got a WSW or blizzard/blowing snow warning up here.
ReplyDeleteOn the north side of the city it looks like its raining right now
ReplyDeleteIce pellets are being reported at YWG.
ReplyDelete3 packs of warnings.
ReplyDeleteWATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
BLOWING SNOW WARNING FOR:
=NEW= CITY OF WINNIPEG
=NEW= SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE
=NEW= DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH
=NEW= PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR:
=NEW= STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
=NEW= MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS.
SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
=NEW= WHITESHELL - LAC DU BONNET - PINAWA
=NEW= SPRAGUE - NORTHWEST ANGLE PROVINCIAL FOREST.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
A STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWEST MANITOBA THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
TRACK INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING A WINTERY
CHANGE TO THE WEATHER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS EVENING FROM THE WEST AND
BECOME LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 10 CM ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY MONDAY WITH UP TO 15 CM
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. LESSER AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 CM ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
OF GREATER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS WHICH WILL
DEVELOP TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING PARTICULARLY
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 60 OR
70 KM/H ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW
THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH POOR
VISIBILITIES ESPECIALLY IN OPEN AREAS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY FROM MORRIS TO EMERSON
WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
EVENING AS WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR POOR DRIVING CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST MANITOBA.
THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BE BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE MID MINUS TEENS MONDAY AND INTO THE
MINUS TWENTIES MONDAY NIGHT.
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR MANITOBA CAN BE SENT THROUGH TWITTER
USING THE HASHTAG #MBSTORM.
EC is telling people to post to Twitter instead of calling the severe weather line?! I hope this is just a winter thing, and won't apply to tornado/funnel cloud reports. Pity the forecaster who has to filter through all the junk to find an actual severe weather report.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob,
ReplyDeleteI see WN is now saying 1-3 and EC still says 5 min. What are your thoughts?
Jeff..
ReplyDeleteTough call for snow amounts for Winnipeg.. snow has been slow to start here as we're still reporting freezing drizzle, but it should turn over to snow shortly as the colder air deepens. Latest radar shows precipitation starting to fill in nicely to our west, so once we turn over to snow.. I think 5 cm is possible by morning, but it needs to change over to snow soon. If we miss out on the heavier bands, then WN's 1-3 cm may verify. As I said.. tough call..
just drove around the north perimeter from 90 to main st. white out in the open areas. not too nice out there right now!
ReplyDeleteWind is rocking and rolling in the are of McPhillips/Perimter.
ReplyDeleteYeah, heavier snow falling now here in Windsor Park with poor visibilities. Have already picked up almost 3 CM as of 12:30 AM.
ReplyDeleteA nice foot and a half drift outside the door on the south side of the house.
ReplyDeleteVery tough to say how much new snow we got due to the winds. Just eyeballing out the window, I would say maybe 3 or 4 cm at my place, but there's heavy drifting together with bare areas. Driving conditions are quite poor outside the city with whiteouts being reported outside the Perimeter. Things not as bad in the city, but roads are partly snow covered and icy, with reduced visibility in open areas. Luckily, many people have the day off for the holiday, so there's fewer cars on the roads this morning.
ReplyDeleteTCH closed fom Winnipeg to Portage, and Hwy 75 closed from Winnpeg to Morris.
ReplyDeleteNot fun living next to a field.. One by one, cars keep getting stuck in the drifts coming from the field.
ReplyDeleteI-29 closed from Grand Forks to Canadian border.. How hwy 75 remains open from Morris to Emerson is beyond me. Emerson webcam shows total whiteout conditions through there..
ReplyDeleteHey Rob,
ReplyDeleteWhen do you think the winds will slow down? Or will it be like this all day?
thanks
It seems to be closed also from Winnipeg to Emerson.
ReplyDeletehttp://roaddata.gov.mb.ca/map/gmap/map.aspx?lng=-96.69&lat=49.5&zoom=9
Jeff.. Winds will be strong all day before easing this evening. Snow is tapering off in Winnipeg, but we'll have to put up with the blowing and drifting snow all day, not to mention brutal wind chills.
ReplyDeleteLeon.. Hwy 75 is closed from Winnipeg to Morris, but appears to still be open from Morris to Emerson according to MB highways. Also looks like they've reopened TCH west of Winnipeg, although conditions are still poor..
ReplyDeletehttp://roaddata.gov.mb.ca/map/gmap/map.aspx?lng=-96.69&lat=49.5&zoom=9 It seems closed according to CJOB and Manitoba highway's website.
ReplyDeleteMany areas have also dealt with power outages last night and still this morning. My neighbourhood of Windsor Park is one of those areas.
ReplyDeleteMB highways map has been inconsistent for me this morning.. now it shows TCH still closed from YWG to YPG (was showing open earlier). And yes, now it's showing 75 closed all the way to the border.
ReplyDeleteThings have improved here in Winnipeg.. still some locally poor visibilities in blowing snow in open areas, but overall, much better than earlier this morning.
The wind is still just nuts near McPhillips/Perimeter. Sure look forward to the winds letting up a bit.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteLooks like more snow possible on Friday. Is that another clipper system coming our way?
Re: Friday. Doesn't look like much for Friday. Earlier run of GGEM was brushing us with some snow from a weakening system over northern Minnesota, but they've backed off on it with latest run. Other guidance shows little snow or nothing.
ReplyDeleteCold day Tuesday with highs only around -20C, but at least it's sunny, and winds will be lighter than today, although still fairly brisk in the morning. Ridge moves in Tuesday night with clear skies and light winds, which will allow temps to drop towards the -30C mark. RGEM UMOS for Winnipeg flatlines at -23C Tuesday night which looks awfully strange for a clear calm night after a predicted daytime high of -22C. Looks like RGEM still has a warm nighttime bias in those arctic ridges, at least for Winnipeg. Other guidance more in the -30C range for Tuesday night (Wed am) which looks more reasonable (if you call -30C reasonable :)
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteIs AccuWeather's long range forecast automated? Reason I ask is it is showing 10 - 15 cm for the Feb 26 & 27.
Thanks
Alien invasion!
ReplyDeleteJeff..
ReplyDeleteYes, forecasts from AccuWeather are automated.. they have to be, there's no way they can manually look at every forecast they do for all those cities around the world. Looks like there's a system tracking into the Great Lakes next week, although early guidance is suggssting most of the snow will stay south of us.. but it's early still. We'll see how things trend..
I've had to enable word verification on comments.. too many spam messages getting through. Hopefully that cuts down on them. Apologies for having to do that, but the spam messages were getting too frequent and annoying.
ReplyDeleteA low -29.4c at YWG airport this morning. So much for temperature "steady near -23c". #UMOSfail
ReplyDeleteRob
I'm just wondering if we also have snow in our country, is it favorable to us or not.
ReplyDeleteStorm