Wednesday, January 02, 2013

Milder start to the new year

A strong upper ridge of high pressure over the western Prairies is allowing a surge of milder Pacific air to push across the Prairies over the next few days. The bulk of the mild air will be confined over Alberta and southern  Saskatchewan, however above normal temperatures are forecast over southern Manitoba into next week as the upper flow becomes more zonal (westerly)  This will allow temperatures in Winnipeg to climb to the minus 5C mark or higher at times tomorrow into next week.  Long range guidance is indicating that the spell of above normal temperatures is expected to persist into mid to late next week before a return to colder conditions.       


  1. All the METAR from YBR were until recently going through YXE ("VIA CYXE" in the remarks). So a combination of computer probems at Brandon, and things getting 'lost in translation' over the phone to Saskatoon is perhaps to blame.

    Looking forward to some warmish weather, then another frigid week after next according to ensembles.

  2. Nice balmy but breezy day over Riding mountain area with strong westerly downslope winds allowing temperatures to climb above the freezing mark in Dauphin and McCreary areas. Winds have been gusting as high as 95 km/h east of the Riding mountains warranting a wind warning in the area.

    By the way, winds and mild temps fooling the Navcanada autostation at Dauphin which has been reporting light rain or light snow all day. YDN webcam showing a nice sunny mild January day in the area. Another example of how automation without quality control can result in unreliable and false information being disseminated.

  3. Hi Rob,

    Just looking at latest trends which are indicating a major stratospheric warming event currently taking place.
    Typically that means some serious cold for us some 10 days later or so.

    What are your thoughts on this and how cold could it become here around mid month?

  4. I've heard some rumblings about that stratospheric warming and what it will mean for us in mid to late January, but I must admit that area of long range prediction is beyond my expertise. I do see that there is a large area of -50c air over Siberia, and models show the AO index trending negative again, so it's certainly possible that we'll be looking at some much colder weather here by mid month.

    Meanwhile, some serious heat in Australia with 48c readings over the interior. Highs of 41c forecast Friday for Melbourne and 44c for Adelaide.

  5. Hey Rob,

    Any signs of some significant snow?

  6. Looks pretty quiet on the snow front over the next few days. GFS indicating potential snowstorm over us by Thursday of next week, but at this point, it's the only model showing that. Euro is further east on storm system. We'll see how things trend, but it does look like trend to colder weather by end of next week.

    By the way, already 36C in Adelaide at 8:30 in the morning there! (Friday)