Sunday, January 20, 2013

Big chill descends on southern MB..

An extensive Arctic airmass has spread over the Prairies this weekend, and southern MB will be in the grips of it much of the upcoming week.  Temperatures will struggle to get above -20C until next weekend, with overnight lows at or below the -30C mark most nights. In fact, Winnipeg airport has already hit the -30C mark this evening (Jan 20th),  the first -30C reading at YWG airport since Feb 25 2011. That ended a streak of 693 straight days without a -30C reading, the longest such streak at Winnipeg airport since records began there in March 1938.  The only other longer spell of above -30C weather in Winnipeg was from Feb 15 1930 - Jan 29 1932 (714 days)  but that record was set at the St John's College observing site closer to downtown, theoretically a slightly warmer location than the airport.

Whatever the case, there is no doubt that this will be the coldest weather we've seen in southern MB for at least two years. Last winter was the 4th warmest winter on record in Winnipeg, and was notable for its lack of snow and cold spells. There was only one 3 day cold spell with temperatures in the minus 20s, from Jan 17-19th 2012.  So this upcoming cold spell will seem longer and more intense than usual, but in reality, it's a fairly typical mid winter cold spell for southern MB. Although temperatures will be some 10 degrees below normal much of the week, widespread record low temperatures or record wind chills are not being forecast. Still, the cold weather will come as a shock to residents who have forgotten how cold it can get here in southern MB. Bundle up folks!  Relief isn't expected until next weekend into early next week when temperatures should finally rise to normal values for this time of year (highs of -13C), although some snow will likely accompany the warmup as well.

82 comments:

  1. Will be interesting to see how cold it gets tonight at YWG airport.. NAM giving a low of -37C, RAP -38C, Euro -34C, GGEM -38C, RGEM -31C, and GFS not even trying at -28C.

    Last evening, temperature at YWG dropped to -33C by 10 pm with a light NW wind, and then held steady around -30C the rest of the night as a westerly breeze of 20 km/h kicked in. Tonight, we have a NW breeze that will drop off this evening, then winds are almost calm overnight. So, that would support a quick drop off to -33C again this evening, and then perhaps a couple more degrees overnight unless airport gets a light southwest flow off the city to keep temps up a bit. So I'm thinking that -35C is possible for the airport tonight, which fits in line with ensemble guidance, and accounts for a 4C warm bias that RGEM UMOS had yesterday. We shall see..

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  2. Without the wind it's not that bad if you're bundled up.. Glad to hear it will be calmer to start tomorrow.

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  3. -28.4C already in my yard (5:30 pm). It's going to be a cold one!

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  4. That -33 C between hours would surprise me if it was any station other than YWG. Looks like a meso-high tried to form over the interlake and northern RRV (well east of the main surface high), before washing out. Still though, winds remained consistently aoa 15 km/h the whole night on the hourly observations. For most stations, that would be sufficient to keep things stirred up and prevent temps to spike down at the surface level. At the airport though, surface inversion seem to form even with wind speeds as high as 15-20 km/h giving brutal windchills. Of course, its not to say it wasn't a very cold night - but those laminar outflows are pretty idiosyncratic and unrepresentative.

    Tricky forecast again tonite with potential for rapid drop off early as Rob mentioned. Best radiative cooling will be off to our SE tonite, with surface high dropping from Bismarck to Alexandria MN by 12Z. That should put us in a westerly return flow by around midnight with winds turning to SW after 3 am. Flow at 925 hPa should remain at 30-40 km/h. With the downslope component to the flow, I agree with RAP guidance showing the potential for gusts around 20 km/h at the surface overnite. That should be enough to keep things from bottoming out too much.

    Coldest temperatures (-35 to -39 C) will be over SE Manitoba and NW Minnesota. For Winnipeg, more like -33 to -35 C with the airport warmer and south and west suburbs colder if return flow kicks in when it is progged. Last wildcard is high clouds which are entering SW Manitoba now. Models show little eastwards progress, but if they can manage to reach further east they will moderate our temperatures somewhat.

    Daniel

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  5. I'm at -29.0C at my site as of 8 pm, but airport is "only" at -28C, so it's not dropping off there as quickly as last night when it was already -30C at 8 pm. Surface wind currently at 260 (W) instead of 300 (NW) which is likely preventing temps from bottoming out as quickly at airport. Watch for a more rapid temperature drop at airport if wind shifts slightly to NW direction.

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  6. Flow has already gone SW at the airport with temps stabilizing at -28C. Not likely to drop much more there tonite if flow persists.. maybe -30C with low -30s for the south and west flanks of the city.

    Btw, weatherfarm shows lows for this morning in the -26 to -29 C range inside the city, with -29 to -32 C common outside the perimeter. Only the Manitoba ag station at Dugald (which is a cold pocket) got as cold as the airport in the Winnipeg region.

    Daniel

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  7. Didn't see your comment Rob. Yeah, we'll see what happens with the wind direction, but it seems like we are starting to tap that return flow already.

    Daniel

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  8. @10pm:
    YWG: -28.7C
    XWG: -28.8C

    But several temps at -32 to -33 outside the city in all directions. A few within the city also reaching -30 to -32 (including mine).

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  9. Yeah my site is at -30.8C here in Windsor Park at 10:15 PM.

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  10. Most sites in the city in the high -20s except for places like Ft Richmond and Charleswood..

    http://classic.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=WINNIPEG#PWS

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  11. Very impressive cold in northern Ontario.. down to -41C in Armstrong and a bone chilling -44C in Lansdowne House. Those are actual temperatures, not windchill!

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  12. Coldest readings in southern MB as of midnight..

    Wasagaming .... -36C
    Eriksdale ..... -35C
    Pinawa ........ -34C
    Sprague ....... -33C
    Emerson ....... -33C

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  13. My site is at -33.1°C as of 7:30am, with having reached -35°C overnight! I'm in Headingley.

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  14. Hey Rob,

    What are your thoughts on snow for this week?

    thanks

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  15. Thanks for the report Eric. -33c was the low at my place... same at the airport. Cold spot in southern MB was Pinawa and Wasagaming at -36C

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  16. Anonymous..

    Clipper system tracking across southern SK into ND will bring some light snow to southern MB Thursday including Winnipeg. Early estimates are 1-3 cm for Winnipeg at this point.

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  17. A few of the MB fire wx stations were reading some pretty cold temperatures last night east of Lake Winnipeg:

    Hooker Lake (NW of Bissett).... -44.3C at 3am
    Flanders Lake (South Nopiming PP).... -41C at 5am
    Bissett.... -38.7C from 4 to 6am

    Hooker Lake was still at -40C at 8am!

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  18. I see temperatures at the airport took an abrupt nose dive at around 2 am - with temperatures otherwise remaining around -30 C all night long on the hourly readings. From weatherfarm, looks like lows in most of the city were around -28 to -31 C, with -29 to -33 C in outlying areas. Dugald the cold spot locally at -36 C.

    Daniel

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  19. 56 days left until Spring...

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  20. Looks like they have increased the snow amounts for tomorrow. I guess the system is moving further north than originaly thought

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  21. Daryl..

    Yeah, most models showing around 5 cm for Winnipeg now.. one of the models (NAM) is the lowest at 3 cm or so. Looks like snow will be spreading into Winnipeg by the noon hour and tapering off after midnight. Drive home will be slick with the snow and cold temps, as well as some drifting snow..

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  22. Still looks like a significant cooldown again after the little "warm spell" this weekend, back into the -20's.

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  23. Yeah, looks like Wednesday next week starts another big deep freeze for us. Enjoy the warm spell while it lasts. And of course we certainly will see some snow with the warmup. Looks like 5 CM for us tomorrow....it will definately be slick on the roads with colder temps in place.

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  24. Currently -29.2C at YWG Airport at 5PM and a forecast low of -31C......Hmmmmmm, my feeling tells me that temps are gonna drop further than -31C at least this evening.

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  25. 7pm
    YWG: -32.3C
    XWG: -32.6C
    my yard, 1 block from YWG: -32.8C (el-cheapo Canadian tire thermometer)

    -35C may be doable yet this calendar day.

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  26. Yeah, forecast low for Winnipeg likely influenced by RGEM guidance which has consistently been underforecasting lows at YWG by 3-4c in light NW flows with clear skies. RGEM UMOS was again keeping our low above -30c (-29c) which was surpassed by 6 pm. Winds shift into the south overnight which will halt temperature drop at YWG but not before we get close to -35c. GGEM still showing its strange cold bias with low of -45c suggested. Not sure what's going on there..

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  27. -31 C is a good forecast for the city proper. I really see no point in trying to make a forecast for a site like the airport, with its random temperature fluctuations at times. In fact, it looks like between hours early yesterday morning, the temperature dropped to -33.9 (and -33 C at 2 am). This in spite of the fact that the entire rest of the night temperatures were stable near -30 C.. odd.

    Daniel

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  28. LOL. Winnipeg proper is a big area. My thermometer (in Winnipeg) just went to -34.5C, but may have a cold bias. Others in Winnipeg currently range from -26 to -33C. Near Winnipeg temps are from -28 to -37C. (Perhaps this also highlights how poorly cheaper stations perform in these extreme temps.)

    Nights like this can yield odd readings, jumping temps. I was an observer in SK when temps fell to -43C two nights in a row, and it was very interesting watching the thermometer bounce around.

    Tonight between 7 and 8 PM, both YWG and XWG dropped to -33C (-32.9 and -33.1 respectively) before bouncing back to -30.9 and -31.7C. Not unusual in these conditions.

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  29. Except that EC forecasts are verified against YWG.. so that's why forecasts are geared towards the airport readings.

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  30. Yeah, but not all stations drop off or fluctuate like that (not just related to urban heating).. and for the ones that do, it usually happens when winds are almost dead calm. A station with more stable readings would make it easier to calibrate or validate forecasts. As I stated before, it's time to provide forecasts for the city itself (using The Forks or a new station), as is done in Edmonton for city centre airport.

    Daniel

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  31. YWG Airport is now at -34.2C at 11PM.
    Robs Obs is at -33.3C at 11PM. My site here in Windsor Park is at -31.6C at 11PM while the forks is at -28.2C....So generally i'd say average temps across the city are around -32C or so with the usual cooler and warmer sectors. Either way it's a bone chilling night.

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  32. Pocket of brutally cold air right under the surface high in the Interlake and Whiteshell regions, with temperatures already down to -36 to -38 C. High clouds keeping things warmer in N Dakota and SW Manitoba, with temps -25 to -28 C. Cloud appears to be making only slow progress north and east, so temps will continue dropping for some time yet NE of the city.

    Daniel

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  33. Clouds about to inch into the city in the next hour or two. Weather Underground round-up of local stations shows most temps right now -29 to -32 C in the city, with Rob's site the cold spot at -33.7. That should do it for tonite, but don't be surprised to see -40's showing up over the Whiteshell and Bissett regions tomorrow morning.

    Daniel

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  34. Daniel, how much snow do you think will fall in the Winnipeg region tomorrow...is 5CM a good estimate?

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  35. YWG and XWG both hit -35C last night, before midnight.

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  36. A ventilated psychrometer and high quality thermistor respond much faster to pockets of warm/cold air passing through. And an open landscape allows the pockets to stay clumped together, instead of being broken apart and mixed around by trees and buildings. Take a walk on a cold, calm night in an open field and you'll notice many temperature variations. It may not reflect the weather at the Forks, true.

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  37. -39.7C low at Pinawa last night (EC autostation) Volunteer climate sites at Pinawa and Indian Lake (near Falcon Lake) both recorded lows of -40.5C overnight.

    Low of -33.9C at my place around midnight.. coldest in 4 years.

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  38. I understand Daniel's sentiment about forecasting for the city, however Edmonton City Centre and The Forks weather stations are two completely different situations. One is a still a WMO standard site, at the airport within the city. The other was established more for public education purposes, and meets hardly any WMO siting standards. Wind direction and speed is affected by the buildings, temperature and dewpoint by the nearby buildings and parking lot, the rivers to the south and east, sprinklers watering the grass a few feet away, etc, etc.

    Here's where The Forks station is:
    http://i.imgur.com/Qkm7KXc.jpg


    An urban forecast would be interesting, but pretty tough to find a site for proper validation.

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  39. How much snow are we expecting today.

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  40. How about any idea when it will stop?

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  41. Anonymous..

    Guidance is pretty consistent that we'll see about 5 cm over the next 12 hours or so.. should be tapering off by midnight or so.

    Snow developed rapidly over Winnipeg with leading band of snow moving into the city, but radar shows large snow-free area to our west before more snow over western MB. We could see a break this afternoon for a bit unless that dry area to the west fills in.

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  42. Rob, do you think that forecast of -2C on Monday is too warm and the snow forecast for Monday being the result of another Alberta Clipper with 5CM or so perhaps?

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  43. I'm thinking people will be pretty tired of winter starting mid next week, if they aren't already. Another cold snap into the forseeable future (Feb 8, and beyond?).

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  44. WWCN11 CWWG 242135
    SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
    ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
    AT 3:35 PM CST THURSDAY 24 JANUARY 2013.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

    BLOWING SNOW WARNING FOR:
    CITY OF WINNIPEG
    STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
    SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE
    DUGALD - BEAUSEJOUR - GRAND BEACH
    PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN
    MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS.

    BLOWING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

    SNOWFALL WARNING FOR:
    SWAN RIVER - DUCK MOUNTAIN - PORCUPINE PROVINCIAL FOREST.

    10 CM OF SNOW EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    ==DISCUSSION==
    A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN IS
    CURRENTLY BRINGING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO AREAS IN SOUTHERN
    MANITOBA. A GENERAL 5-10 CM OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER THE SWAN
    RIVER AREA WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE 10 CM TOTAL BY THIS
    EVENING. AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATES THE
    HEAVIEST SNOW BAND OVER THE SWAN RIVER AND DAUPHIN REGIONS.
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE IN WESTERN SECTIONS OF MANITOBA
    THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE EASTWARDS.

    40 GUSTING TO 60 KM/H SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRODUCING REDUCED
    VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTERLAKE
    AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. VISIBILITIES MAY BE
    REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. WITHIN THE CITY LIMITS OF WINNIPEG
    VISIBILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BETTER, HOWEVER ALONG THE PERIMETER
    HIGHWAY AND IN OPEN AREAS POOR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
    ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING ALTHOUGH BLOWING SNOW
    MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE RED
    RIVER VALLEY.

    ENVIRONMENT CANADA ISSUES A BLOWING SNOW WARNING WHEN VISIBILITIES
    ARE EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED TO 1 KILOMETRE OR LESS IN BLOWING SNOW
    WITH WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 30 KM/H AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
    LAST FOR THREE OR MORE HOURS.

    MOTORISTS TRAVELLING ON THE HIGHWAYS IN THE AFFECTED REGIONS ARE
    ADVISED TO CALL MANITOBA HIGHWAYS AT 511 BEFORE TRAVELLING.

    PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

    END

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  45. It's definitely ramping up now. Can barely see up to ~200 m away just down the street from YWG.

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  46. Why is EC calling it snowshowers?

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  47. Very poor visibility right now in west end @ Perimeter and Roblin. Probably 1/4 mile or less

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  48. I see the 2 cm at the 4 pm forecast has now been updated to 5 cm.

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  49. yeah, as it should be....i've seen 6 CM at my place here in Windsor Park since the snow began early this afternoon.

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  50. "Snowshower" is taken from the official observation from YWG airport which was reporting -SHSN this evening, which literally means "light snow shower" It's usually used to note convective type of precipitation ( similar to rain shower) but I agree that it tonight's case, "snow" would have been more accurate.

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  51. About 5 cm here in Charleswood..

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  52. Wow...some serious issues with weatheroffice website. No current conditions being observed at any location at this hour. What's up with that.

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  53. Hmmmm.....now the website is showing current conditions for 10 PM....Something definately not right.

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  54. Looks like the issues with the weatheroffice website have been resolved.

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  55. 7 cm total snowfall at my place. Snow depth: 42 cm. Seasonal snowfall now up to 112 cm, which means we've had an entire winters worth of snow now, with 3 months to go. (average Winnipeg winter snowfall = 110 cm)

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  56. Still looks like a few more cm of snow mid next week as we return to the deep freeze.

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  57. Actually a pretty nice day out there... Light wind, clear blue skies glistening off a sparkling white snowpack, and crisp cold air. Dress for it, and it's not that bad out there today. Don't let that -34 windchill scare you.. it doesn't feel like it.

    ReplyDelete
  58. Yeah, it seems like the bit of energy we feel from the sun now is making somewhat of a difference especially with the light winds today.

    ReplyDelete
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