Scenario 1 - Weaker low tracking near Duluth
Winnipeg snowfall: 5-15 cm (less snow north and west, more snow south and east)
Likelihood: 25% (Updated Nov 9th) 25%
Scenario 2 - Stronger low tracking near International Falls
Southern MB impacts: Heaviest snow over RRV and interlake, less snow over SE MB Winnipeg snowfall: 15-25 cm (less snow west and east)
Likelihood: 50% (Updated Nov 9th) 55%
Scenario 3 - Strong low tracking near Lake of the Woods
Southern MB impacts: Heaviest snow over western MB and interlake, less snow over RRV/SE MB with freezing rain or ice pellets possible Winnipeg snowfall: 10-15 cm (more snow north and west, less snow south and east)
Likelihood: 25% (Updated Nov 9th) 20%
In all cases, the bulk of the snow is expected to fall Saturday with snowfall tapering off Sunday. Winds will depend on the strength and track of the low, but generally the strongest winds will accompany the area of heaviest snow, which will lead to snow and blowing snow issues.
Model Snowfall projections Friday through Sunday
GFS model (left), GEM model (right)
(based on 12Z model runs from Tue Nov 6th)
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| Projected snowfall accumulations Fri - Sun from GFS model 5 cm ranges, yellow is 20 cm line |
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| Projected snowfall accumulations Fri - Sun from GEM model 5 cm ranges, green is 10 cm line |
I will continue to monitor the situation and have updates as the week progresses. During that time, updated model solutions will hopefully be converging towards a more consistent forecast that I can relay with more confidence. In the meantime, you may want to start making sure you have the winter gear handy for the end of the week, and your vehicle is prepared for winter driving conditions (including snow tires)
FWIW.. the GGEM, which drives EC's forecasts, is favouring Scenario 1 (i.e. further east track, less snow for YWG). Compared to the other models, it looks like the GEM is the outlier right now, and I'm discounting it in favour of the GFS and Euro solutions, which show a scenario 2 outcome (i.e. further west track, more snow for YWG)
ReplyDeleteThe 12Z multi-model meteogram plot for YWG clearly shows how the GGEM is an obvious outlier compared to all the other model guidance. (click on my name for chart) It could be right, but it seldom pays off going with the longshot..
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteI guess either way the chances for 30 cm or more is minimal to none at this point.
It looks like not a much of chance of something like the blizzard of 1986 but no matter what still a problem.
Are we still looking at very cold temps behind the system?
I wouldn't totally discount a 1986 repeat, although the odds are low at this point. Keep in mind the scenarios I give are general, and local snowfall amounts could be more than stated.
ReplyDeleteWhatever happens, yes, definitely getting colder behind the system.
True...because I remember that was not expected to happen either in 1986...so you never know sometimes.
ReplyDeleteExact snow amounts are tough to pin down, especially days in advance. I would not be shocked if there is a foot or more of snow somewhere this weekend. It's an energetic system. Severe threat extends as far north as Minnesota based on SPC outlook.
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteI noticed Brett Anderson from accuweather.com is saying it appears the system will likely be too close to give Winnipeg substantial snowfall as some of the precipitation will fall as rain or mixed.
Do you think that's accurate or will this be mainly a snow event even here in Winnipeg?
Brett must be looking at scenario 3 ( further west track, more snow west, less snow RRV) Personally, I'm leaning more towards scenario 2 (all snow event for Winnipeg)
ReplyDeleteI think he already answered your question.
ReplyDeleteSounds like it's time for one of your famous polls Rob
ReplyDeleteIt's basically a wait and see game...Hopefully models paint a clearer in the next couple days of what's likely to happen
ReplyDeleteJoel.. Yes, snow poll will be posted shortly. Sometimes, that turns out to be the most accurate predictor of all!!
ReplyDeleteRob, is the precip still expected to begin sometime Friday Evening or Night with the bulk of the precip Saturday?
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. We could get some light snow anytime Friday ahead of the system, perhaps a dusting to a couple of cm, before the main snow starts early Saturday as the storm winds up. But definitely, bulk of the snow expected Saturday.
ReplyDeleteI see the latest Euro has shifted further east than its previous runs, giving Winnipeg about 15-20 cm of snow Saturday, and less snow further west. So scenario 3 may be becoming less likely.. but it's still early. Snow poll now up.. time for everyone to tell ME how much snow Winnipeg will get!
Hi Rob. I'm a fairly new visitor to your blog. Find it very informative. Do you have a background in meteorology and which of the forecast models has the best track record for accuracy?
ReplyDeleteI voted 15 - 20.
ReplyDeleteI remember 86 well and would enjoy a repeat but I don't think it will happen.
Is that anywhere in Winnipeg or at your site?
ReplyDeleteHey Rob, I have been following up on the developing storm for the weekend looking like quite the interesting setup. I do have trouble making an agreement on which model to follow given their changing consenus on the storm. I do agree with the storm track of the GFS and the Euro with heavier amounts forecast for Winnipeg. What do you think the NAM will come up with for the weekend? It will be interesting to find out.
ReplyDeleteAnonymous.. Welcome to the blog! Glad you find it useful.. that's why I do it. As for me, I'm a senior meteorologist with Env Canada with over 27 years experience, with a special interest in extreme weather and climatology. Note however that this blog is in no way affiliated or connected with Env Canada... this is strictly a personal blog that I run on my own. I like to give more insight into the weather situation that is indicated in the basic forecast. Saturday is a good example.. currently the forecast for Winnipeg calls for a "60% chance of flurries" when in fact, it could be a lot worse than that. That's where this blog can give a lot more insight.
ReplyDeleteAs for what models are most accurate.. they all have their strengths and weaknesses, and you can't always go with one model and think it'll always be right. Overall, the European model (ECMWF) gets a lot of high praise in the medium to long range, while the NAM and regional GEM are solid short range models. But again, there's no one model that you can always go by..
As for the official snowfall observation for the poll, we'll go with what I record at my station in Charleswood.. which is the official snowfall recording site for Winnipeg since the airport does not take snowfall observations any longer. And no, I won't be influenced by the poll results.. I take pride in accurate snowfall observations! My site should be representative for much of Winnipeg given the synoptic nature of this storm.. if not, we'll go with the general snowfall recorded across the city.
ReplyDeleteWhat would be really interesting would be a very far west solution. That would bring up the prospect of elevated convection, LLJ, warm front etc. There isn't any support right now for that scenario in the deterministic models, but such an occurrence is not without precedent.
ReplyDeleteIn November 2000 (during the contested US presidential election), we had exactly such a system which - along with a series of lead disturbances, produced a round of thunderstorms and copious rains over the southern RRV and SE Manitoba. Parts of N Dakota were inundated with over 100 mm of rain. Significant flooding occurred even as winter freeze-up began leading to abnormal ice conditions on the Red River.
In November 2008, we had a system very similar to scenario 3, with mainly ice pellets, freezing rain for Winnipeg, and plain rain for ares just to our SE.
If we get a large snowpack in the RRV at this time of the year, it is sure to stay on the ground until April (barring another exceptional warm spell in March), and it will plunge us into winter temperatures. With the cool, but not freezing temperatures and recent rains, I am enjoying the green grass we didn't have during summer lol. So here is hoping for a warmer solution.
Daniel
Latest GFS has come in a bit further west with the system.
ReplyDeleteI've noticed that also. It's starting to seem like Euro is on it's own with the significant snow forecast right now...a further west solution would mean mixed pcpn for us thus lesser amounts of snow but it sure seems like GEM and now GFS have totally flipped from yesterday. Hopefully models will settle down on this in the couple days and give us a better idea on just exactly what this storm will do.
ReplyDeleteWe likely won't have better model consistency until they can ingest some better initialization data with the upper trof pushing into the west coast, which is just pushing onto the BC coast this evening. Perhaps starting with tonight's runs and more likely tomorrow. We'll also have some higher resolution models starting to get into the act like the NAM that may give us some better guidance.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteEither way, one thing that's certain we are definately in for some kinda winter storm this weekend regardless of how it unfolds.
ReplyDeletePeople should prepare ahead of time for the likelyhood of winterlike conditions this weekend...
Good point Mike...alot of people have said that as well.
ReplyDeleteI should mention my school librarian is starting to feel cramps in her bones, everytime there has been a significant snowstorm or thunderstorm she has felt like that before the main event. I tell you she is a human weather barometer, and she knows something is on the way especially the fact that it has come about so early this time. There is a sign for you that it will likely be significant. Just Saying :-)
ReplyDeleteRob,
ReplyDeleteI've noticed that the NWS in Montana and North Dakota have already posted Winter Storm Watches and Special Weather Statements well ahead of time.
Any thoughts on why E.C. doesn't use that practice as well and warn the public ahead of time of a potential for adverse weather conditions by issuing watches or statements?
EC issues winter storm watches up to 36 hours before a potential winter storm or blizzard is expected.. thus any watches for southern MB or southern SK likely won't be issued until Thursday at the earliest. Also, winter storm watches are posted only for storms that are expected to drop at least 25 cm of snow within 24 hours, OR produce at least 10 cm of snow within 12 hours along with strong enough winds to give significant blowing snow, or occur along with freezing rain.
ReplyDeleteSpecial weather statements may be issued earlier than watches for potentially high impact events. But those are generally done less frequently..
NWS seems to have more latitude on when they can issue watches..
Looking forward to seeing what tonight's model runs show, perhaps they may paint a clearer picture and we'll see what NAM says tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteJust a summary so far..
ReplyDeleteWith 21 entries already on the snow poll, the ensemble of all guesses is 15.8 cm. The most guesses are in the 20-25 cm range at the moment.
Both CBC and Weather Network are calling for 5-10 cm of snow for Winnipeg Saturday.
Rob,
ReplyDeleteDo you think they are underestimating these amounts CBC and Weather network?
That seems too minimal for a large storm.
Also, are you still personally going with scenario 2 as far as this storm is concerned?
ReplyDelete0Z GFS is looking a lot more like scenario 2.
ReplyDeleteI agree with Jon, the 0Z GFS run tonight looks a lot like scenario 2
ReplyDeleteWorking mids again....00z model suite (GFS in particular) a bit farther east than earlier runs and would be more favorable for a heavier snow northeast nd into Winnipeg area.... with stronger low moving btwn INL and DLH. GEM remains a bit weaker and farther east and would have more snow in eastern ND into nrn MN. 00z Euro coming in and is a bit farther east as well and a bit more similar to 00z GFS.
ReplyDeleteOverall is a bit more easterly track with low and a slight increase in thoughts for a significant snow into Winnipeg.
As Dan mentioned, GGEM maintains its weaker and more progressive scenario 1 solution, and remains the furthest east compared to other model solutions. So I will continue to discount it.
ReplyDeleteEURO has come in with a scenario 2 solution but quickly moving off as a more progressive system by Sunday.
GFS and UKMET both came in with scenario 2 solutions, and look like the best of the lot.
NAM’s first kick at the can has come in as a scenario 3, which is more aggressive and warmer compared to the other models, bringing some mixed precip over SE MB and srn RRV. For now, I’m going to discount it, but will have to keep an eye on future trends.
So what does all this mean? Well, I think that scenario 2 is still the best compromise among all the models, and I’m sticking with that solution until I see more convincing evidence otherwise. GFS brings in 26 cm of snow to Winnipeg with this system, while Euro has 17 cm. GGEM brushes us with 7 cm. Snow poll average is 16 cm. Snow starts in Winnipeg by Friday evening, increases overnight into Saturday before tapering off Sunday.
I've noticed EC has posted Special Weather Statements for AB and SSK this morning. Would imagine they will do the same for Southern Manitoba either later today or tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteNWS now has Winter storm Warnings and watches in Montana, Winter storm watches and winter weather advisories in western north dakota and special weather statements in eastern north dakota
Based on what I've seen with the models this morning i agree with Rob, scenario 2 looks like the best shot right now...but will and wait and see what later trends within the models indicate.
ReplyDeleteFrosty morning today on yet another cloudy day. Would be nice to see some sunshine for a change...it's been quite awhile since we've had a sunny day, in fact John Sauder of CBC mentioned yesterday that we've had only 5 hours of sunshine since October 14th.
ReplyDeleteHmmm. EC says POP 60% flurries for Saturday and the Meteocode has no accumulation. Just a little dusting, no worries, let's take the motorcycle on a road trip, maybe do a little camping.
ReplyDeleteOh the joys of fully automated extended forecasts.
Daniel I remember the November 1, 2000storm you mentioned. Definitely a memorable thunderstorm in November! Here is an archived GFA image from that event (click my name)
ReplyDeleteWe'll it seems like general consensus is growing that the heaviest snow will fall in the RRV/SE MB...EC has now posted a Special Weather Statement for Southern Manitoba as well stating exactly that.
ReplyDeleteWow, John Sauder of CBC is painting a different picture with this storm. He's saying Winnipeg will be on the northern edge of the storm and 10-12 cm will fall during the entire event if the storm moves this far north...So clearly he's looking at scenario 3 which seems less likely each passing day.
ReplyDeleteDon't worry Anon. JS will adjust his forecast later and then say "See, it happened exactly as I forecast". He even took credit for forecasting the path of hurricane Sandy.
ReplyDeleteAin't that the truth...You're right on the money on that one, anonymous
ReplyDeleteToday's 12Z GGEM is finally edging a bit west towards a Scenario 2 solution, although it still brings heaviest snow mainly southeast of Winnipeg. NAM on the other hand shows heaviest snow over southwest MB into the Interlake (Scenario 3) although it has trended a bit east towards Scenario 2 from last night's run. So it appears models are slowly converging towards a Scenario 2 type solution in term of snowfall distribution. This is what NAEFS ensemble has been advertising for a few days now.
ReplyDeleteGeneral model consensus on snowfall for Winnipeg is in the 15-20 cm range at this point..
Models continue to struggle with degree and positioning of downstream blocking ridge over eastern N America, resulting in an increasingly progressive type solution. 18Z NAM has shifted low track from Rochester MN up thru Marquette Michigan with a type 1 scenario.. We'll see if the trend holds for later runs. However all models for the 12Z and 18Z runs show a track no further west than Duluth for the low and heaviest precip grazing us to the SE.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Yeah, we'll see if that easterly trend continues with the new runs... but odds may be increasing for a Scenario 1 outcome, lower for 2 and lowest for 3. I'll wait for tonight's runs before I update the scenario probabilities..
ReplyDeleteBy the way, 54 entries for the snow poll..most popular pick is 20-25 cm. Average guess is 16 cm.
Wow, that's certainly a big change...Now it appears that all this hype about a major storm may become nothing more than just that...a scenario 1 outcome does not merit all this talk...let's face it 5-10 cm is not much to talk about.
ReplyDeletebut, i guess we will have to wait and see how this plays out when the day comes.
Let's face it, we have had many storms that turned out to be worse than expected like the blizzard of 1986 and the snowstorm of the end of December 2006 when if I recall about only 10 CM was expected and well we got about 30 cm....So history has definately shown that these systems are difficult to forecast and sometimes we dont'e necessarily know just how it will unfold until it does
ReplyDeleteDefinately looks like inconsistency remains with the models today...perhaps tonight's runs or tomorrow's runs will give a much better idea.
ReplyDeleteHi Rob,
ReplyDeleteWhat are your thoughts on the latest model runs? Are you still personally going with scenario 2?
By then some snowfall warnings should go up and/or winter storm watches/warnings here and down south.
ReplyDeleteRob what time does the new model information come out usually?
ReplyDeleteIts thundering and lightning in La Salle right now.
ReplyDeleteK thanks lol I knew I wasn't just crazy! I heard thunder in south end a few minutes ago, and no one believed me... lol
ReplyDeleteLightning detector confirms lightning stike in band of showers just SW of the city. Report of thunder in Charleswood..
ReplyDeleteLight hail coming down in La Salle. Some accumulation on the ground but not much at all. Looks like it stopped after 30 seconds.
ReplyDeleteHeard some hail too on my air conditioner. Couldn't verify due to a crap vantage point and the fact that it's dark.
ReplyDeleteMother nature is teasing us.
ReplyDeleteWow...18Z GFS tonight is giving major snowfall amounts upwards of 30 CM (1 Foot) of snow in some parts of the RRV/SE MB, but big question...will it be right?
ReplyDelete00Z GFS keeps with that. Lots of snow for RRV/SE MB on Saturday. Verbatim would probably be close to a foot in spots if not more. Things should become more clear tomorrow.
ReplyDelete00Z UKMET is pretty much in line with GFS.
ReplyDelete00Z NAM and 00Z GEM appear more progressive thus still have scenario 1 solution with less snow here and more to the southeast.
ReplyDeleteDoing the forecast on this mid shift again at NWS Grand Forks... we I did was to go winter storm watch for areas along and north of Rosaeau MN to Grand Forks ND line.
ReplyDeletePrefer the GFS/Euro which seems the most reasonable and they have been very consistent. That idea would spread heavy snow west central-northwest ND east-northeast through northern ND into southern Manitoba.
Would gather right now best bet for over a foot turtle mountains to Steinbach region.
I agree with Dan, GFS/Euro have been best at handling this system so far. They have been very consistent...hard to go against that.
ReplyDeletePretty good snowstorm/potential Blizzard shaping up for Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba into North Dakota
Model consensus from last night have started to show heaviest snow mainly along and S of Transcanada into SE MB.. where 15 to 25 cm still possible. Latest model estimates showing about 10-15 cm for Winnipeg, although GFS still indicating 25 cm for us which seems high given more eastern track of storm.
ReplyDeleteUpdated scenario probabilities would be something like..
Scenario 1 ... 50%
Scenario 2 .... 40%
Scenario 3 .... 10%
Timing still looks about the same.. snow generally spreading in from the south sometime Friday night, increasing through Saturday, then tapering off Saturday night into Sunday.
Again.. looking at about 10-15 cm for Winnipeg, higher amounts possible south and east of us. Trump card would be where 700 mb low tracks.. which could provide some enhanced snowfall away from the main axis.
Thanks Rob...
ReplyDeleteDoes appear heaviest snow should be in a band from Williston ND through the Turtle Mountain region on toward Steinbach region give or take a bit..
Loving the analysis, folks.
ReplyDeleteEven the latest NAM slows things down a bit and would give southern MB/northern ND/MN a good dumping of snow.
Just looked at EC 11:00am update and they seem to be downgrading it a bit. Now a 60% chance of flurries on friday and the snow for saturday now shows only 3 snow flakes.
ReplyDeleteIf would be quite disappointing if we only get a dusting after all the talk of a snow "storm"
ReplyDeleteThe forecasting of this system reminds me of the latest US presidential election!
ReplyDeleteRob, what are your thoughts on the storm. Seems its changing continuously from hour to hour? 10-15 cm snow with a chance to have more?? Or not much, seen last hour CTV was saying 15-20 cm? Weather network says 15. Guess we won't know till it is all said and done?
ReplyDeleteI see the call is for 10-15 CM for Winnipeg. Oh, yes we have heard that before with colorado lows...remember 1986 and 2006?
ReplyDeleteWe all know how that ended...Both major storms of 30 cm and even more in 1986 which that storm just happens to be one of Winnipeg's worst blizzards in history.
Should we be surprised at this? I seem to recall this storms namesake one of Caesars trusted XXing him as well.
ReplyDeleteI'm surprised Wunderground is forecasting a total of 25cm of snow for us throughout Saturday. They have been very accurate in the past when forecasting snowfall amounts, and this most likely will be significant ifd they turn out to be right. Awesome!
ReplyDeleteI would love a good snow day (don't kill me for saying this!). Bad news for any vacationers though.
ReplyDeleteI'll probably set up a timelapse Friday night and continue it through Sunday morning.
I agree with you Conner. Let it come!! More snow the better!!
ReplyDeleteBoo the forecasted amounts seem to be going down, turning into a progressive system pushing everything to our S and E (NAM has high amounts. What about Euro models?). GEM and even GFS now pushing everything towards a secnario 1 situation. Can't seem to get a break, summer or winter!
ReplyDeleteNew post up!
ReplyDelete