Sunday, May 13, 2012

Warm windy weekend sparks wildfires over southeast MB..

The windy warm and very dry weather this weekend has helped to fuel at least two wildfires over southeast MB, including a fire near Woodridge (NW of Sprague) that has grown to over 1300 hectares. The weather has been ideal over southern MB this weekend with sunny skies and warm temperatures in the mid 20s. However, the beautiful weather has also been accompanied by brisk westerly winds gusting to 50 and 60 km/h at times, along with very low humidity levels of 15-20% in the afternoon.  Those are prime conditions to promote fire growth, particularly in areas that are quite dry, such as the Red River valley and SE Manitoba. More of the same weather is expected Monday although winds won't be as strong, with gusts to 40 or 45 km/h by the afternoon. RH values will still be low in the 20-25% range. A cold front is expected to cross southern MB Monday night bringing slightly cooler and less windy conditions for Tuesday and Wednesday, although little precipitation is expected with dry conditions persisting much of the upcoming week.

51 comments:

  1. Is there a chance that Winnipeg will hit 30 C on Monday?

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  2. No I don't think we'll hit 30C Monday... We should be about the same as today, about 27-28C. There's also some increasing cloud by the afternoon that should keep us below the 30C mark.

    Strong smell of smoke this evening in Winnipeg with our winds shifting to the NE.. probably tapping some of that smoke that was in the Pinawa area this afternoon.

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  3. FYI.. I'm having some issues with the wind speeds from my weather station.. cups are spinning, but station is reporting "0" for winds. Will try to see what's wrong, but access to rooftop location may take some time..

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  4. Interesting to see the SE MB smoke plumes change based on the wind direction today. Smoke was heading west this morning due to an easterly wind, now they've swung around to the north with a southerly wind. Later today winds will shift into the west, pushing the smoke plume into NW Ontario.. before a northerly wind pushes the plume south tonight. Lots of wind direction change within 24 hours!

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  5. I see Enviornment Canada took out the thunderstorm risk with the 11:00 update! Too dry for storms?

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  6. Yeah, I think it's just too dry for any surface based thunderstorms today and tonight. Perhaps that short wave passing through the Interlake may tap some mid level instability and spark a tstm mainly north and east of us tonight, but overall looks too dry for much of anything.

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  7. Winnipeg is getting close to hitting 30C. Full solar and a nice SW flow, it could happen!!

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  8. Aschroft, BC with a RH of 7% yesterday...

    Now that's dry.

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  9. Re longer term forcast..

    Haven't had time to post lately, but its clear drought pattern tyring to establish itself. Western ridge moves over us by later this week, and omega block pattern re-amplifies. Southern stream wave generates LLJ over central plains and midwest, with moisture advection to our south. Pattern tries to break down and phase somewhat, with stronger disturbance moving up in SW flow. GFS gives us significant rain in region of deformation/mid-level frontogenesis. Given blocking pattern in place.. we'll have to see how the models trend.

    If longwave pattern remains unchanged, one can look to analogues like 2011 and 2006.. both those years had very dry summers with minimal convection.

    Daniel

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  10. Daniel.. Certainly starting to feel like a droughty pattern over srn MB, especially with these gusty west winds and low dewpoints of the past few days (winds this afternoon were stronger than expected.. gusting to 70 km/h at YWG airport. ). As you say, we'll have to see if that SW upper flow this weekend can start tapping some moisture and bring in some precip for us.. although its prettyj dry to our south as well (drought begets drought?) On the other hand, southern SK has had above normal precip this growing season so far..

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  11. Thunder in Charleswood..

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  12. High based tstm giving 80 kmh wind gusts to YWG airport... Not much rain. Mostly aloft.

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  13. Verifying Rob. Thunder and a strong gust of wind just came through.

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  14. Latest radar image came in...small one, shouldn't be long that we have this one in NW WPG.

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  15. Gusting 46 ikt at airport (85 kmh).

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  16. Uh hello.... YWG observer.. May want to send a special that a thunderstorm with gusts to 46 knots are hitting the airport!! Big raindrops here in Charleswood now...

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  17. And that was pretty much a non-event here, but in SE WPG they're in for a surprise..

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  18. ...and that forced a new severe thunderstorm watch for south central MB including the city.

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  19. That cell developed pretty much right over Winnipeg.. Another shower or tstm approaching from west.. High winds would be the only threat from these high based storms.

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  20. Yeah with the well mixed, dry atmosphere, getting a lot of evaporative cooling and gusty winds. Like Rob mentioned, very little rain.. hope the lightning doesn't spark new fires.

    Daniel

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  21. 381
    WWCN11 CWWG 142324
    SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN
    ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
    AT 6:24 PM CDT MONDAY 14 MAY 2012.
    ---------------------------------------
    WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MANITOBA...

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
    =NEW= CITY OF WINNIPEG
    =NEW= STEINBACH - ST. ADOLPHE - DOMINION CITY - VITA - RICHER
    =NEW= PORTAGE LA PRAIRIE - HEADINGLEY - BRUNKILD - CARMAN
    =NEW= MORDEN - WINKLER - ALTONA - EMERSON - MORRIS.

    ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSHOWERS ARE CAUSING LOCALLY INTENSE WIND
    GUSTS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

    THIS IS AN ALERT TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

    MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS..LISTEN FOR UPDATED STATEMENTS.
    IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES TAKE IMMEDIATE SAFETY
    PRECAUTIONS.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
    ==DISCUSSION==
    A COLD FRONT SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS
    TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. ISOLATED BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
    STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THIS FRONT. AREAS CAN EXPECT
    SHORT DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS OVER 100 KM/H BRIEFLY
    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
    LATER THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
    SOUTHERN MANITOBA.

    PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST PUBLIC FORECASTS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

    END

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  22. Ominous skies to the west.. Must be a round 3 forming! =)

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  23. Extremely strong gust of wind just blew by the south end couple minutes ago. House roof was crackling because of such pressure!

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  24. Just had a low precipitation thunderstorm push through Altona. Some rather impressive lightning with a brief burst of moderate rain. Interesting stuff.

    Regarding the droughty pattern, I have a gut feeling that things are going to flip in the coming weeks. Last year was a wet spring followed by a dry summer. I think it's going to be the exact opposite this year.

    No major analysis or studying for this one. A gut feeling that I'm hoping is right for a variety of reasons, namely the fire conditions.

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  25. How many more of these windstorms are we going to go through tonight? Just wicked out there again.

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  26. Crazy wind, house is literally shaking from the gusts!

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  27. Some pretty impressive dust storms have blown through the outer areas of north Winnipeg this evening. Going west down Chief Peguis Trail around 6pm, what initially looked to be a horizon dark with torrential rain, turned out to be nothing more than a few raindrops and lots and lots of dust as it rolled through.

    Definately not something you see everyday (or every year) in Winnipeg!

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  28. 101 km/h gust reported in Sperling, MB.

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  29. NWS Grand Forks just issued a wind advisory.

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  30. Accuweather is predicting a very warm to hot summer for the southern prairies with below normal precip.

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  31. Cold advection and unidirectional WNW flow are allowing for mixing all the way up from at least 600 hPa.. where 65 kts are available to transfer down. Almost like a dust storm in the city with street lamps flickering in many areas. Certainly not good for the fire situation..

    Daniel

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  32. PS..

    Well at least model soundings are adiabatic up to that level.. I am not expecting 135 km/h gust at the surface... fortunately ;) Gusts 'only' at around 75 km/h so far at YWG.

    Daniel

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  33. looking at RUC..it shows mixed layer becoming shallower tonite, only up to 925 hPa by midnight. It tries to show inversion setting up and winds decoupling. But with 15-20 kts just off the surface, would expect bursts of mixing and 20-25 km/h gust to keep going till morning.

    Daniel

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  34. Rob! Did you get the strongest wind gust at the airport tonight??? At around 9:00 I was driving on Waverly and the vehicle was really hard to control with the strong winds.....what a day!!

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  35. Any details on that tornado report near Elie? Another one near Plum Coulee???

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  36. 33.0C today in Lytton, BC. That is the new warmest temperature recorded in 2012 in Canada.

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  37. Anonymous.. Peak gust at the airport was 85 kmh around 6:15 pm with that first thunderstorm. Gusts were about 75-80 kmh with that second round of winds (cold front and outflow) in the evening. But locally, wind gusts could have been stronger. Wild evening for what looked to be a non active cold front!

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  38. Unlikely they were tornadoes... Most likely straight line winds.

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  39. Update on Mayville doppler radar... Techs are at the radar today to start dual pol install. Downtime will be 4 to 7 days...4 days if all goes well....maybe up on Saturday.

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  40. Winds 30 -50 km/h today
    South 40 -60 km/h tomorrow!

    Man these fire fighters are not catching a break with these gusty winds changing directions everyday!!

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  41. Last night's wind. Special event summary from Environment Canada

    Location maximum gust

    Sperling 101 km/h
    Elm Creek 92 km/h
    Carman 91 km/h
    Starbuck 91 km/h
    East st. Paul 90 km/h
    Dugald 86 km/h
    Winnipeg airport 85 km/h
    Winkler 85 km/h
    Gladstone 85 km/h
    Gretna 85 km/h
    Emerson 83 km/h
    Deerwood 83 km/h
    Treherne 82 km/h
    Portage la Prairie 80 km/h
    Teulon 80 km/h
    Altona 80 km/h

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  42. Hi guys I am going to Riding Mountain National Park on the weekend, just wondering will the weather be stormy at all, or will it be nice? Let me know thanks...

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  43. GFS is showing an active pattern this weekend and next week.

    Verbatim, the GFS would support a pretty darn good convective event on Friday night. It's showing MLCAPE of 2,000-3,000 J/KG in southern MB.

    MCS anyone?

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  44. SW Manitoba looking decent for Friday right now according to 12z GFS. Nice hooked hodos though bulk shear isn't overly impressive. Modest capping which appears to break down around 0z. If the models hold true, I'll likely be out chasing in the late afternoon/early evening.

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  45. Hi rob, I am going to Riding Mountain National Park on the weekend, just wondering will the weather be stormy at all, or will it be nice? Let me know thanks...

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  46. Chris,

    Latest models look good for storms. Probably our first "real" shot at severe convection this year.

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  47. WOW, NAM giving 32-33C Fiday... looking good for storms.

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  48. Mike.. As noted by some of the above posts, late Friday into Friday night could be interesting across southern MB as a cold front pushes through with hot and more humid conditions ahead of it. Showers and tstorms are likely, possibly strong depending on how much moisture we can tap ahead of the system. Storms should clear by Saturday with what appears to be a nice holiday weekend shaping up according to current models..

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  49. alright thx guys, I bet will see some spectacular convection on friday night with the way things are forecast for then. Might be the first significant storms of the year, will have to wait and see what 30C brings.

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  50. Models again seem to be struggling with breakdown of omega block and phasing of streams... timing and placing of fronts somewhat uncertain.

    Initially, we will see the same old story.. return flow of moisture and LLJ will set up first to our west, and then to our south. Warm front and LLJ will park itself somewhere along the N Dakota/ S Dakota border Thursday and early Friday. GFS surges front northwards late Friday, as upper SW flow is progged to finally take hold over us.. until then we will be dealing with that cool, easterly breeze again.

    Potential is there early Friday evening for severe surface based cells to pop up right along warm front - where capping is weak and instability is very high. Greatest risk area right now looks like between Grand Forks and the int'l border. With LLJ ramping up over the boundary, cells should eventually congeal into an area of elevated convection, as surface based instability lessens (although the southern RRV will still see MLCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg until 1 am).

    Surface trough progged to move thru around midday - too early for destabilization. Of course if timing is slower, maybe surface based storms could fire up along the RRV and east.

    Daniel

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  51. Chilly one this morning.. Temperature down to 0C at my place in Charleswood. Had to quickly cover the flowers last night and early this morning to protect from frost. Most places in the city are above freezing, especially downtown, but patchy frost likely this morning with the light winds and clear skies. Harder freeze outside the city, especially to our east where temps of -2c or lower are being reported.

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