Friday, May 04, 2012
Generally cool and unsettled weather through Monday..
The weather picture will be dominated by generally unsettled conditions over the next few days over southern Manitoba as a series of weather disturbances pass though the region. The first wave of unsettled weather is pushing into SW Manitoba this morning with a large area of showers which will continue to progress eastward into the Red River valley by tonight, although precipitation is expected to become lighter by the time it reaches the RRV. General rainfall amounts of 10-20 mm are forecast today over SW Manitoba with just a few mm over the RRV tonight. Shower activity will move out Saturday with a generally dry day expected before the next area of showers and possible thunderstorms pushes in for Sunday. This may bring higher amounts of rainfall over the RRV and southern MB with 10-25 mm possible depending on how much thunderstorm activity develops. Currently models are suggesting that the bulk of rainfall over the next 3 or 4 days will occur west and south of the RRV over southern SK, southwest MB and the Dakotas. Scattered showers and cool weather are expected Monday over southern MB before a drying and warming trend by the middle of next week.
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Note that if you're monitoring radar today and over the weekend, radar returns from the Foxwarren radar (near Brandon) appear to be running "hot" i.e. radar returns appear more intense than normal. Compare neighbouring radars from Bethune (SK), Woodlands (MB), and Minot (ND) to get a better idea of how heavy the precipitation really is over SW Manitoba.
ReplyDeleteGuessing that easterly flow will "eat" away at the precipation shield most of the day, leaving just a few showers by the time it get's to the Red River Valley!
ReplyDeleteWhy does the foxwarren radar appear hot? Also, does it resolve itself or does someone have to fix it?
ReplyDeleteIt'd be nice if we could keep it on topic and not about grammar! I follow this blog to follow weather and there's actually quite a bit weather-wise happening this weekend...
ReplyDeletedaniel p, I enjoy your comments please keep them coming.
Well I guess it was a matter of time before the trolls started finding Rob's blog. I guess I've hit the big time now. Sigh.
ReplyDeleteAs I said before folks.. let's keep it civil.. we're all here to talk about the weather. Remember what Mom always said.. "If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything". I will do my best to delete personal or offensive remarks.
As to why Foxwarren appears "hot" (or oversensitive), I don't know why. I know it was down a few days ago and they needed to make some repairs.. perhaps some calibration issues when they brought it back up?
Agreed with Mr. Farms... I almost never comment on here personally, but I read the blog regularly and am so impressed with the knowledge, enthusiasm, and curiosity of those who post, daniel p most certainly included. I learn so much here. Thanks to all for providing such insight to those such as myself who have a keen interest in the weather but a completely unrelated day job!
ReplyDeleteFirst batch of showers has moved through RRV overnight with minor amounts, and we'll be left with generally cloudy skies today with plenty of low cloud over southern MB and the Dakotas. Next batch of precipitation will spread into the RRV early Sunday morning, between the main area from southern SK into western MB/Interlake regions ahead of the main low, and some heavier shower and thunderstorm activity over the Dakotas and Minnesota where models are indicating some locally heavy rainfall overnight into Sunday through those areas. Precip will be stretched out between these two main precip areas, with a relative minima over the RRV and SE MB (perhaps 5-10 mm) Sunday. At least that's how the models see it .. we'll see what actually happens.
ReplyDeleteGetting some bonus sunshine this morning with a large area of clearing over the RRV. Nice to see!
ReplyDeleteYet another snow storm in Calgary today.
ReplyDeleteHey Rob,
ReplyDeleteOne of the easiest ways to starve the trolls is to not allow Anonymous posts. I'm sure that 99% of us who comment here would gladly sign in to leave a comment.
That being said, it's quite interesting what the models are doing with this next system. The GEMREG has slowed it down (doesn't get to the RRV until late afternoon instead of late morning) and has more showers rooted around the upper low. Not sure what to believe, as the GEMREG performance has been sort of terrible the last 3-5 days for our region.
Time to look at the NAM...
Good suggestion Brad.. I'll keep that in mind if the trolling continues.
ReplyDeleteGot a nice bonus day of sunshine and mild temps today before the wet stuff moves in again Sunday. Models still indicating a split pattern in the upcoming precip event for Sunday over southern MB with bulk of rainfall going to the north of RRV, and well to the southeast with convective activity over northern Missippi valley. Main low will intensify over southern SK where there could be significant rainfall, and even heavy snowfall over the Cypress Hills on the backside of the low overnight through Sunday morning (that area has seen some epic snowfalls in May.. NAM is indicating 30-50 cm of snow for higher elevations Sunday!) By the time the leading band of showers reaches RRV Sunday, it will be a narrow stretched out area of precipitation, with 5-10 mm possible, with heavier amounts over Interlake and Duck Mtn areas.
General rainfall amounts of 5 -15 mm over western RRV and western MB this morning with main band moving to the northwest of Winnipeg. We'll likely get clipped by tail end of band as it moves northeastward, but not much.. perhaps a couple mm through midday.
ReplyDeleteTaken from NWS Grand Forks:
ReplyDeleteON MONDAY...EXPECT DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND VERY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH
-24C AIR NEAR 500MB OVER THE REGION. ANY SUNSHINE SHOULD QUICKLY
SELF DESTRUCT IN THE NORTH WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER
50S. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME WEAK SFC INSTABILITY WITH LI/S AROUND
-1C AND CAPES AROUND 200 J/KG.
Good chance of hail with the thundershowers tomorrow??
Thundershowers not likely today over southern MB as cloudy skies and showery weather will keep things too cool and stable. There were thundershowers yesterday over eastern SK in an area of clearing northeast of the upper low, with some small hail reported in Regina.
ReplyDeleteAn update on Foxwarren radar..
ReplyDeleteTurns out that the radar signal was tweeked up after maintenance last week, apparently a little too much. It has since been adjusted back to the signal strength before it went down, so radar returns from Foxwarren should look more reasonable now.
Any chance of cold cores with the upper low in the region today? Getting a bit of sun out there now which could get some convection going a little bit.
ReplyDeleteNice warm up on the way over the next couple of days. Sunshine and 21C Wednesday.. with our first 25C of the year possible Thursday! (NAM is giving Winnipeg a high of 28C Thursday!) Cold front pushes through Thursday night with some showers and possible tstorms.. then clearing out Friday ("periods of rain" Friday appears too pessimistic.. band of showers will be passing through fairly quickly and should not last all day)
ReplyDelete