Tuesday, May 29, 2012
Long awaited spell of sunshine and drier weather..
After 10 days of generally cool, cloudy and unsettled weather.. the weather pattern will finally be shifting to a drier and warmer trend, at least for the next few days. Unsettled weather will be moving into the Great lakes while an upper ridge of high pressure builds over the western Prairies by the end of the week. That will allow a much needed break from the frequent storm systems passing through the southern Prairies. After a chilly night tonight with patchy frost in areas, Wednesday should be the nicest day we've seen in a while with plenty of sunshine and temperatures approaching 20C, a mark we haven't hit in Winnipeg since the 23rd. Even milder weather is forecast Thursday with sunny skies and highs in the low 20s. Friday may see some increasing cloud and a small chance of showers, but generally most places should be rainfree with drier and warmer conditions expected into the weekend. More organized shower activity is possible later Sunday into Monday as a system tracks across the Prairies.
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I've reinstated anonymous posts.. doesn't look like most people were willing to register to comment. Will just need to monitor the occasional abuser, but I'd rather see more discussion than less. Post away!
ReplyDeleteDown to +2.2C at my place as of midnight.. and still 6 hours of cooling to go. I was hoping the increased humidity would start slowing down the temperature fall, but temp is still dropping steadily. Had to cover most of the flowers this evening.
ReplyDeleteFrost in Riverview (Winnipeg) this morning..air temp down to 1 degree, but fairly widespread frost as well as shallow fog by the river.
ReplyDeleteThanks Dan. Low of -0.7C at my place with frost. All that rain and humidity still wasn't enough to save us from a freeze , at least in my yard. Glad I covered the flowers last evening .. Now onto some much needed sunshine and warmer temperatures!
ReplyDeleteRob, I realize long term forecasts are not reliable, but just curious on your thoughts on what you see in the weeks ahead easpecially after the poor past week. Any comments on what effect the A.O. is having and/or any blocking patterns in place or setting up? I'm hoping we'll see some nice warm dry weather so perhsps willing to grasp at straws at this point. Thanks in advance
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob for re-instating. Too bad those problems exist. Just for your info I tried and tried to post via google and it would not work. Not sure otherwise how to register.
ReplyDeleteDaryl..
ReplyDeleteYes, I heard people have had problems trying to post even through Google. So I'll just allow anonymous posts and moderate as best I can. But I prefer that than no comments at all.
Mark.. I haven't looked too closely at long range forecasts mainly because as you said, predictive skill is very tough, especially with summer weather. So I mainly concentrate on the short term. As far as the AO is concerned, it looks like it's been neutral since the end of March after being in a positive phase most of the winter. Since that time, we've been in more or less a normal pattern, with less blocking and more variability. How long this will continue is tough to say. The CPC outlook for the upcoming summer is for a better than normal chance of warmer temperatures over the southern US, with no clear signal over the northern US. This may imply a more active storm track across the northern plains/srn Prairies this summer.. but again, I wouldn't put any bets on it at this point. Still too early. You may want to consult the "American Wx" forum under the "medium range discussion" topic (click on my name) for some good insight from people with more expertise in long range forecasts than me.
Thanks Rob. FYI when you changed the posting process I too was unable to log in. Glad to hear it wasn't just me and my technical shortcomings lol Mark.
ReplyDeleteLight frost for areas of the RRV south of Winnipeg, and the usual cool spots off to our east like Marchand, Dugald etc. However, with temperatures in several cases only just below freezing and for about an hour or less, I doubt there was widespread damage. Ag-wx sites from western RRV like Portage, Starbuck, Elm Creek all stayed above freezing, as did stations in the northern RRV and southern Interlake such as Woodlands, Teulon, and Selkirk. Probably those areas tapped the light WSW return flow that developed overnite. Surprised YWG dropped below freezing between hourly observations.. would be nice to look at some of the CWB weather bug data from Rosser and Grosse Isle, but looks like the network has been taken down.
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Mark... Today's 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks from CPC both show above normal temps through the Northern plains and southern MB which is a bit of a shift west from the previous outlooks. Hopeful sign for a return to warmer weather again for us.. (also hinting at above normal precip for us.. more tstorms with that warmer weather?)
ReplyDeleteIt was a scorcher in Eastern Canada yesterday.
ReplyDeleteHuntingdon, Quebec recorded the first 40C humidex of the year. The dewpoint of 22.9C was also the highest the country in 2012.
then... it just poured like crazy... downtown Montreal recorded 65.2mm yesterday most of which fell within 30 minutes.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/story/2012/05/29/montreal-storm.html
Rob is the recent weather/climate pattern similar to other recent spring years of 2004, 2008, and 2010? The pattern seems to be above avg temps below avg precipitation reversed in late April . The month of May 100+ were totally absent for 2 decades before 1998. Since then we've averaged one May every three years. 1998,2001,2004,2010,2012.
ReplyDeleteDon..
ReplyDeleteOur Mays definitely seem to have been wetter this past decade. I think it may have something to do with the earlier onset of overrunning convective events that normally make June our wettest month on average. Earlier growing season south of the border, with an increasing influx of low level moisture makes these warm frontal convective rain events more common over us in mid to late May, whereas before it was mainly in June. Another sign of climate change? (or perhaps, it correlates to me moving here in 1998 :)
Bit of instability coming through Friday with a weak trough crossing southern MB, currently giving a few scattered showers and thunderstorms over southern SK. Nothing severe expected with marginal moisture and weak dynamics, but just enough to spark up a few lightning strikes Friday afternoon/evening.
ReplyDeleteOmega block pattern setting up again with the pleasant, dry conditions that we've been waiting for. Models try to bring in some light shower activity early Friday, but associated trough looks to wash out. Cut-off low over the Great Lakes retrogrades west with cool advection again on Saturday for us. Surface trough finally tries to push thru sometime Sunday afternoon.. some isolated showers may break out along the front with, but instability and moisture look limited (500-750 J/Kg CAPE).
ReplyDeleteWe'll have to watch for the pattern to break down by midweek, with SW flow progged to overspread our region again. 850 hPa flow shows a good moisture connection all the way from the easterly Trade Winds in the Caribbean, deflecting north into the plains LLJ around a Bermuda High. However, given the strength of the blocking pattern and that we're still a week out, there's uncertainty as to how the actual pattern will unfold.
Daniel
May will end up with a mean monthly temperature of +12.2C at Winnipeg airport, just a bit above the normal for May of 12.0C. So technically, our streak of consecutive months above normal is still alive at 11 months, although I would have trouble saying this month was "above normal" If the monthly temperature is within 0.5C of average, I consider it "near normal". Regardless, we can safely say we've now gone 11 straight months without a below normal month. Pretty impressive... and somewhat concerning.
ReplyDeleteNote for your mariner types.. the buoy on the south basin of Lake Winnipeg was launched today (id# 45140) Obs available on my main page under "Current Obs >> Marine obs" Mid lake temperature is a chilly 14C as of today...
ReplyDeleteRob do you know how long the Buoy's in Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg operate for? Do they usually only operate during the summer season?
ReplyDeleteYes.. buoys are only in open water. Usually put in May or early June, out by October. 3 buoys in Lake Winnipeg (north, south and narrows) but no buoys deployed in Lake Manitoba or Lake Winnipegosis (too shallow or too small).
ReplyDeleteI wonder, the storms in SW MB look stronger than forecast, must be the foxwarren radar. It is probably running too hot again, who can get up there and fix it?
ReplyDeleteMike.. Yeah, Foxwarren radar still looks like it's running hot. Reflectivity values are about 10-20 dBz higher than neighbouring radars, which makes cells appear stronger than they really are. EC is aware of this however I'm not sure when radar will be adjusted. Until then, don't get overly excited about cells on Foxwarren. Compare cells with Minot and Woodlands radar to get a better idea of storm severity.
ReplyDeleteCells look pretty good on the Minot radar. Probably some small hail in the strongest cells.
ReplyDeleteSome slow-moving cells trying to fire up over and south of the city. Some rain in St. James.
ReplyDeleteSome cells popping in the city and just to the south. Stronger shear and NW flow aloft is over western Manitoba and N Dakota. Cells over Winnipeg are drifting very slowly to the north. Some locally heavy rain is possible under the slow moving cells..
ReplyDeleteDaniel
Huge downpour with hail at the office - Waverley and McGillray.
ReplyDeleteHow big is the hail? Cell is moving north over the city with some lightning strikes..
ReplyDeleteheavy rain and a few cracks of thunder here in fort garry
ReplyDeleteNo hail here at the U of M Fort Garry Campus.
ReplyDeleteSevere thunderstorm warning for the R.M. of Riverside went out.
ReplyDeleteSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
ReplyDelete=NEW= R.M. OF RIVERSIDE INCLUDING NINETTE MARGARET AND DUNREA.
AT 3:40 PM RADAR WAS INDICATING A POTENTIALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM 30 KM WEST OF GLENBORO MOVING SOUTH AT 15 KM/H
TOWARDS NINETTE. QUARTER SIZE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
Warned storm weakened fairly rapidly. Mainly pulse storms going up quickly then dying.
ReplyDeleteThe hail was pea sized but sure rattled my window.
ReplyDeleteNot much activity in St. James, just some rain and the odd rumble of thunder.
ReplyDeleteCells tracked over the city today mainly west of the Red River.. general rainfall amounts of 2-7 mm reported, with up to 12 mm at U of W station downtown.
ReplyDeleteSaturday shaping up to be a nice warm dry day.. but Sunday looks like a repeat of today with another chance of showers and possible thunderstorms as a weak trough moves through southern MB. That "sunny" Sunday forecast for Winnipeg looks a bit optimistic.
Hi rob, I am going for a roadtrip to NW Ontario in Late June, Start of July I am wondering what kind of weather do they experience in that region? Do they get the same kind of thunderstorms that we experience here during the summer season? If you or someone else could let me know that would be great...
ReplyDeleteMike.. NW Ontario weather is pretty much the same as southern MB, not quite as hot but less windy due to the forests. They can get severe thunderstorms just like southern MB, even tornadic storms. Most often, their tstorms are high winds and heavy rainfall type storms. Enjoy your trip!
ReplyDeleteRob Mosquitos-One of our prairie weather dependent insects are far less abundant in parts of Northern Ontario. Unfortunately they are replaced by the Black Fly.
ReplyDeleteHow is the weather effecting this years insect crop in camping country??
Thank's Rob, I look forward to the weather there....
ReplyDeleteSpot weather is showing the potential for Lifted Indicies to fall to below -1 tomorrow, and CAPE values rising past 1000 J/KG at 4pm at my place. A Cold Front, or Trough will likely move through our area at this time. (Click my name to get look at the forecast by SpotWx) Will be Interesting to see what EC forecasts tomorrow. Anyone clueing on Severe thunderstorm potential? I am....
ReplyDeleteEC's Tuesday forecast calls for a muggy low of 17 C. Three years ago on the same date, it was -5 C!
ReplyDeleteI remember that cold June day well.. watching my daugher's baseball game in a parka that evening. The joys of spring sports in southern MB!
ReplyDeleteRe: Sunday's convective outlook.
ReplyDeleteThunderstorm potential is there for Winnipeg/RRV late afternoon.. but it all depends on how much we can scatter out from morning debris cloud and lingering showers from convection that will ongoing to our west tonight. That should be through us by early afternoon, then we start to scatter out with trough line just to our west. Convection that fires up along that trough line will depend on how much surface heating can be established in the afternoon clearing.. but capes of 1000-1500 are possible as dewpoints climb into the mid teens along with some decent shear. If things are slow to clear out, or trough line moves through faster, then convective activity will be less favourable for us, or fire up to our east. We shall see..
Anyone who would like to see my perspective on thunderstorm potential tomorrow feel free to stop by my blog and view my latest post.
ReplyDeletehttp://mikesobs.blogspot.ca/2012/06/stormy-sunday-on-way.html
(Copy and paste the above link into your browser)
Severe thunderstorm watch issued for areas mainly north of Winnipeg this afternoon. Good area of instability to our west with dewpoints in the 14-17C range ahead of sfc trof giving SBCAPES of 1000-1500 j/kg. Shear is about 30 knots over southern MB with 40 kts through the Interlake giving better support for stronger possibly severe storms through that area this afternoon. Severe storm development will depend on how much clearing we get this afternoon ahead of the trof line. Balloon being sent out of Winnipeg for noon to get updated upper air sounding over southern MB.
ReplyDeleteSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR:
ReplyDelete=NEW= SELKIRK - GIMLI - STONEWALL - WOODLANDS - ERIKSDALE
=NEW= STE. ROSE - MCCREARY - ALONSA - GLADSTONE
=NEW= ARBORG - HECLA - FISHER RIVER - GYPSUMVILLE - ASHERN
=NEW= GRAND RAPIDS.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT MAKES IT'S WAY THROUGH THE AREA.
They're saying that depending on how the cloud patterns are, the RRV may be included.