Wednesday, January 04, 2012

Continuing mild.. record highs likely Thursday

The mild weather of December has continued into January, as Arctic air remains trapped well to the north.. unable to push south due to a strong westerly flow aloft bringing surges of mild Pacific air across the Prairies. Tuesday was another very mild day across southern MB, with temperatures rising above freezing once again in Winnipeg (+0.6C), and a record +6.5C in Carman, MB.. the provincial hot spot. Today will see temperatures around the freezing mark before another surge of Pacific air spreads across southern Manitoba Thursday, with temperatures forecast to reach record breaking values in the +4 to +7C range. Snowfree areas of the western RRV from Portage through Carman to Morden/Gretna areas may even hit the 10C mark Thursday.. over 20C above normal. In Winnipeg, a high of +7C is forecast, which would easily break the record high for January 5th of +4.3C set in 1984. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Friday into the weekend, but still remaining some 5-10C above normal for early January (normal highs of -13C, normal lows -23C) No significant precipitation is expected through the next 5 days.

The mild and dry weather is coming off the heels of a very mild and dry December in southern Manitoba, which finished as the 9th mildest December on record in Winnipeg (-8.1C, +6.3C above normal) with only about 5 cm of snow the entire month (9th least snowiest December on record) Average daily temperatures have been consistently above average since Dec 10th. Mild Decembers have been fairly common the past decade. Five of the top 18 mildest Decembers in Winnipeg have occurred within the past 10 years (2011, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2003). December marked the 6th consecutive month in Winnipeg that has averaged above normal temperature wise. (see temperature graph of past 12 months)

15 comments:

  1. Oh and can you please confirm that
    7.8 C is the warmest daytime high ever recorded in Janurary in Winnipeg???!!!

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  2. That's right Daniel.. Winnipeg's all time high temperature for January is +7.8C recorded on Jan 23rd 1942, during an exceptionally mild 3 week warm spell that saw farming activity taking place in bare fields over parts of the RRV.

    Will be interesting to see if Winnipeg hits +7C tomorrow. The potential is certainly there as we get a favourable SW-W flow by afternoon and tap 925 mb temperatures of +6C. That would translate to afternoon highs of 10-12C over snowfree ground, but you can shave a good 5C over snowcovered terrain as we have here. However, some downslope and snowfree areas of the western and southern RRV have the potential to get close to double digit highs Thursday.. amazing. Note that there will be lots of double digit highs today over southern AB and SW SK, with highs of 10-15C forecast today. Some of that warmth will be spreading over southern MB tomorrow..

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  3. hey rob, do u mind at all If I have a weather blog of my own that highlights weather in the province? I just don't have the same experience as you do.

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  4. NO WEATHER BLOG FOR YOU!!!

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  5. Mike..

    I can't control the weather, and I can't control weather blogs either :) By all means, if you have the interest, go for it! :)

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  6. Thanks rob, You are awesome! If you get the chance feel free to check my blog out.

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  7. At least two dozen record highs across southern/central AB and southern SK including +9C in Edmonton, 15C in Calgary and 16C in Maple Creek, SK.. the national hot spot.

    Highs of 15C forecast for western ND Thursday, and nearly 20C over central SD. No wonder they're still golfing down there!

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  8. That is insane!!! Check the NWS Grand Forks home page to see how warm it really has been in some areas!!!

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  9. It is like an early summer night in Alberta with temps still in the 6-8 C range.Crazy weather!!

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  10. Watch for Dauphin's temperature to pop overnight when those SW winds kick in.. They're currently at -3C but they'll quickly jump to +5 to +7C as those gusty SW winds surface and mix down that warmer air aloft.

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  11. You were right Rob!
    Look at places like Portage this morning with temps already at 4 C.

    Also RED FLAG WARNINGS in north Dakota in Janurary.......I still cannot believe this is happening.

    I hope that Winnipeg can hit 8 C today to smash the all time warmest Janurary!!!

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  12. Looks like the all time warmest temperature for today is in Carman as they are sitting at a remarkable 11C. This is Insane! thats global warming for you!

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