The lack of snow this month in Winnipeg and southern MB is becoming quite evident with barely any snow on the ground just 10 days before Christmas. In Winnipeg, only 0.8 cm of snow has fallen so far this month as of the 15th, with only a couple of cm still on the ground. Parts of the southern Red River valley are actually snow free as is much of eastern North Dakota.. raising the prospect of a possible brown (or "green") Christmas this year with little in the way of significant snowfalls expected over the next week or so.In Winnipeg, the 0.8 cm of snow so far this month is well below the monthly average of 19.8 cm.. and is on pace to be one of the least snowiest Decembers on record if the snow drought continues. The last December in Winnipeg with less than 10 cm of snow for the month was December 1997 when only 7.3 cm fell during a strong El Nino winter. Below is a list of Winnipeg's top 10 least snowy Decembers since records began in 1872.
Top 10 least snowy Decembers in Winnipeg (since 1872)
1. 1877 ............ 0.5 cm (warmest December and winter on record)
2. 1892 ............ 1.3 cm
3. 1931 ............ 2.0 cm
4. 1899 ............ 2.8 cm
5. 1954 ............ 3.3 cm
6. 1939 ............ 3.6 cm (Green Christmas)
7. 1907 ............ 4.6 cm
8. 1896 ............ 4.8 cm
9. 1959 ............ 5.3 cm
10. 1957 .......... 6.1 cm
As can be seen from the table, there have been several Decembers with meager snowfall.. so we still have a ways to go to enter the top 10. It doesn't take much to get a snowfall of 5-10 cm or more in December, so by no means is it a sure thing. But the way things have been going, the potential is there for a top 10 finish.
So what does a lack of snow in December mean the rest of the winter as far as snowfall is concerned? Not much really. Of the top 10 least snowy Decembers, about half had above normal snowfall the rest of the winter, and half had below normal snowfall. So there really isn't a correlation between December snowfall and the rest of the winter. So if you're itching for some of the white stuff, take heed.. we still have a lot of winter left!
From November 1877 to March 1878, only 18.8 cm fell, absolutely mind boggling. Even more mind boggling is how only one month (Jan) had average high below zero...
ReplyDeleteNow wouldn't that be nice..
That was indeed an incredible winter.. or rather non-winter. Warmest winter on record, least snowfall.. (biggest one day snowfall was only 5 cm, and not until April 11th!) What's amazing is that this was right in the middle of the incredibly cold winters of the late 1800s (2 years later Winnipeg hit their coldest temperature ever at -48C!) How bizarre that winter must have been. As you may have suspected, a very strong El Nino that winter that had worldwide impacts. Click on my name for more info from a Minnesota perspective..
ReplyDeleteThe worst Winter that I have ever experienced while living in Winnipeg is a toss up between the 1995-1996 or the 1996-1997 winters. What winters those were!!!
ReplyDeleteI don't mind having a warmer winter but it doesn't have to be dry either. Warmer winter with some snow is a good combo. That's pretty much how it is in part of the states, where they'll have really warm weather that'll melt the snow but then get a big snowstorm that kinda makes up for that. Doesn't happen around here.
ReplyDelete5 C for a forecast high on Sunday!!! Record time???? It will be close!!!
ReplyDelete925 mb temps of +5C Sunday would translate to highs of +10C over snowfree ground, especially over southwest Red River valley which will also benefit from downslope flow off Pembina escarpment (Morden/Winkler/Gretna area). Here in Winnipeg with a little more snowcover, we should still see +5C or so thanks to a westerly downslope flow that will flush out any cool air trapped in the valley. Record high for Sunday is 6.7C in 1943 and 1923.
ReplyDeleteRob, do you know when Environment Canada will switch to the 1981-2010 averages? Surprised they haven't been changed yet.. Almost 2012
ReplyDeleteAnonymous..
ReplyDeleteI haven't heard when EC will switch over to the new 1981-2010 normals. I heard there are major issues with EC's climate data over the past decade due to the loss of regional quality control that used to ensure reliable data got into the climate database. Quality control, which is essential for maintaining 30 year normals, has decreased considerably now that QC has been centralized. I suppose the new 30 year normals will be done eventually (WMO requires it) but it's taking longer now compared to when QC was done on a regional basis. I know the US has been using the 1981-2010 normals for a while now.. These new 30 year normals will be noticably warmer than the 1971-2000 normals, especially winter, since we will be losing the cool 70s, and adding the warm 2000s.
Thanks
ReplyDeleteIt's really a bummer it has to take so long, but hopefully soon.. Yes, the averages will be warmer, which is why I show interest, the old averages are getting, well, 'old'. Especially when you consider almost every November in past 10 years has been 'above' normal.
The trend of higher 30 year normals has been occurring since the 70s, with every new set of 30 year normals rising each decade, mainly due to milder winter temperatures. For example, the 1951-80 normals for winter temps in Winnipeg (DJF) was -16.3C. That figure rose to -15.3C for the current 1971-2000 normals, and the 1981-2010 winter normal will be -14.5C, almost 2 full degrees warmer than the normals we used back in the 1970s. January is the main culprit.. it used to have a monthly mean of -19.3C using 1951-80 normals.. 1981-2010 will have a January mean of -16.4C, a full 3C warmer. So a "normal" January in the 1970s would be considered 3C below normal in the 2010s.
ReplyDeleteAverage summer temperatures have remained fairly steady in Winnipeg over the past 30 years.. but they have become wetter. Normal summer precip (JJA) used to be 231 mm using 1951-80 normals. That value will rise to 247.5 mm with 1981-2010 normals, reflecting some very wet summers we've had over the past decade.
30 years is the world-wide standard for defining "normals".. and it's interesting to see how climate patterns are changing when you compare successive 30 year values.
That radar image would seem to indicate some snow moving into Winnipeg area this evening. 2 cm seem likely!
ReplyDeleteArea of snow off to to our northwest will move into Winnipeg this afternoon as cold front slips through. Might see a quick burst of 1-2 cm with visibilities of 1 mile or less in snow at times this afternoon. Temperatures however will pop above freezing for awhile early this afternoon so snow shouldn't be a major issue on major roads due to melting. But sideroads and less travelled routes may slick up a bit especially later today as temperatures drop below freezing again and NW winds pick up.
ReplyDelete+10C at GFK! A week before Christmas.. nice. (not for Dan GFK though.. :)
ReplyDeleteIs it going to come as rain or snow this afternoon. If its snow would it not be large flakes making it seem like larger accumulations.
ReplyDeleteI told Dan GF he might have to drive down to Kansas if he wants to see a snowstorm > Not of that around here.
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. It will be coming in as snow.. likely within the next 30 to 45 minutes in Winnipeg with area of snow spreading in quickly from the west. Brandon went from good visibility to 2 km vsby as the snow moved in past hour. Our temperature is sitting right at the freezing mark so snow will be melting on major roads at first, but we could see a quick 1 or 2 cm between 3 and 5 pm.
ReplyDeleteSnow came in even quicker than I thought.. band should be through Winnipeg by 3:30-4 pm.
ReplyDeleteSnowing at a good clip now here in Downtown!!
ReplyDeleteWas snowing pretty good near Cheif Peguis/Henderson but has tapered off already just light flakes now
ReplyDeleteBack edge of snowband pushing into north end of city now.. one last burst of snow and then we should be out of it by 4 pm or so..
ReplyDeleteI'm out at perimeter and #8 now and exactly as you say Rob the snow is pretty much petering out.
ReplyDelete1.4 cm of snow this afternoon.. monthly total up to 2.8 cm now.
ReplyDeleteAccording to the official synoptic report from the Winnipeg airport, there was no precipitation yesterday of any form. It must have been a mass hallucination, or localized to a single Charleswood backyard. That's what the official climate record will state anyway.
ReplyDeleteI was disappointed that 1962 was not on your list. Only the Airport reported more snow that month. Of the total 10.8 cm, only 5.4 occurred after Dec 21st. Charleswood reported 4.8 all of December 62. The other Winnipeg stations St Pauls and Sherbrook reported 5.6 and 7.6 cm.
ReplyDeleteDodge City Kansas is getting between 9-12 inches of snow today!!
ReplyDeleteSo that's where the pre-Christmas blizzard went!!!!
A MUST READ from NWS Grand Forks
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=fgf&storyid=76495&source=0
If that link don't work then go to the homepage of NWS Grand Forks and click on, " What happened to our LA NINA "?
Thanks daniel.. Good summary of all the variables involved when talking about seasonal forecasting. As you can see.. not an easy task.
ReplyDeleteI just printed off a copy so far looks very interesting,I look forward to finding out about where our la nina winter went.
ReplyDeleteThis December has been very El Nino like.. with a split flow pattern, little pcpn, and frequent invasions of mild Pacific airmasses. Interesting how interactions with other climatic oscillations like AO, NAO and others can negate or even reverse ENSO pattern.
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