Cold weather today will give way to milder weather this weekend as a milder Pacific airmass spreads across the Prairies. Temperatures will climb into the minus 2 to minus 5C range over the Red River valley for the weekend, with light winds and partly sunny skies. Cooler air will follow Monday into Tuesday, but temperatures should be close to seasonal averages which are now close to -10C for highs and -20C for lows.
As far as snow is concerned, there is little in the forecast over the next little while. Models continue to show a lack of major weather systems affecting southern MB over the next week to 10 days.. with the exception of a potential storm system passing through Minnesota late next week which may affect parts of southern MB by next Thursday or Friday. Other than that, things look pretty quiet as snow bearing systems mainly bypass us well to the north, or to our southeast. This will come as bad news to snowlovers out there, but will be welcome news to those who aren't as fond of the white stuff. So far, we've had less than 1 cm of snow in December, with only a minor coating still on the ground.
36 comments:
Say if we didn't get any snow until after Christmas, and what we have now on ground is what we have on Christmas, would it be considered a brown Christmas?
Not quite.. officially, Winnipeg has 2 cm of snow on the ground which technically would qualify as a white Christmas.. although I can see that there are plenty of bare areas in and around the city.
For those who think this is unusual.. you only have to go back a couple of years to get a similarly snowfree start to winter. In December 2009, we only had a couple of cm of snow on the ground as late as Dec 19th. We then picked up about 15 cm of snow from the 20-25th for a definite white Christmas that year.
Officially, there has been only one brown Christmas recorded in Winnipeg since 1955 when snow on ground (SOG) measurements began.. that being in 1997 with only a trace of snow on the ground at Winnipeg airport (a strong El Nino year). There have been other brown Christmases recorded in Winnipeg before 1955.. namely 1939, 1913 and 1877 during Winnipeg's warmest December and winter on record.
Click on my name for an earlier post on the brown (or "green") Christmas of 1939..
I also dug up some info from a Manitoba Free Press newspaper column from Dec 29 1877 that stated "in December 1834, the first snow of the season (in Winnipeg) fell on Dec 28th. Prior to that, it had been clear and cold." If that's true, then that would be the 5th green Christmas in Winnipeg in the past 177 years.
First snow on the 28th! That would sure make winter feel shorter alright!
Thanks Rob
I was hoping it will stay clear tonight for the lunur eclipse....
I've updated my blog entry to include mention of a potential storm system moving through Minnesota late next week which *may* affect southern MB by next Thursday or Friday. GFS was well to our southeast with it, but Euro is further west and brings possible accumulating snow to Dakotas and southern MB. Still a ways off, but it may be close enough to affect us.
Newest Euro has pushed next Thursday's storm a little further east, with storm just clipping SE MB.. while GFS is still well off to the southeast missing southern MB completely. My guess is that GFS will trend towards Euro solution.. but we'll see..
Rob!
Can you answer this???
When was the last time Winnipeg has recored a snowstorm with 30+ Cm of snow ???? Instead of going through years of Blogging on this site I thought that you might remember...it has got to have been a while.
Remember last year when Minneapolis probably had 5 events of 30 cm or more....
Did we not get 30+cm April of 1997. If we didn't quite make that it would be only that a large portion of moisture came as rain in the first day.
We had a 32 cm snowfall Dec 30-31 2006. That would be the last time. Biggest snowstorm of my life, I won't be forgetting it anytime soon! :P
Oh and can't forget the 34 cm on May 11-12, 2004!
Anonymous is correct.. our last 30+ cm snowfall was Dec 30-31st 2006. Winnipeg airport recorded 32 cm of snow between 3 pm Dec 30th and 8 am Dec 31st. I remember it well.. we had just returned from a Christmas vacation in Ontario and struggled through knee deep snow getting our suitcases to the house!
We also had a 30 cm dump on Nov 15-16 2005.
See.. http://members.shaw.ca/wpgwx/robsobs/highlights05.htm
Thanks for all that info.
Next time anyone is downtown, driving down SMITH St right before Graham St ( Millenium Library) take a look. Is that a weather Station going up??? I see a couple of wind vanes there.....but cannot see what else there is??? Heard anything about what is going on??
Since I am probably one of the few seniors here...I recall the storm of March 4/66. Didn't get home for two days--had to sleep in the office. Everything was shut down in the city and the only way to get around was with the Military and Hydro snow machines (snowmobiles were virtually unknown at that time)
•Winnipeg's Snowstorm of the Century - March 4, 1966. This winter blizzard dropped 35 cm of snow with winds blowing at 120 km/h, paralyzing the city for two days. Winnipeg's mayor issued a warning for everyone to stay at home. The drifting snow blocked all highways in southern Manitoba and forced the cancellation of all air travel in and out of the Winnipeg airport.
http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default.asp?lang=En&n=6A4A3AC5-1
Thanks Dave M.. I wasn't around for the big one of '66, but it must have been something else. Storm of the century for Winnipeg and much of southern MB, as well as North Dakota..
I experienced the blizzard of Nov '86 though. Similar storm as '66 but not quite as intense. 35 cm snow and 90 km/h gusts.. city shut down for 2 day as well..
Most places in Manitoba have a record extreme daily snowfall around 30cm, but some places have exceptionally high amounts:
Virden 76cm (1992)
Morden 53.3cm (1997)
Minnedosa 71.1cm (1938)
Pinawa 48cm (1997)
Altona 45cm (1997)
Birtle 44.5cm (1925)
Churchill 47.6cm (1978)
Beausejour 45.7cm (1971)
Deerwood 65.5cm (1971)
Elm Creek 47cm (1966)
Cowan 45.2cm (1988)
Cross Lake 60cm (1986)
Pierson 51.6cm (1989)
Pine Dock 53.3cm (1971)
Portage 49cm (1966)
Steinbach 55.5cm (1997)
Models in better agreement with system later next week. Looks like a non-event for us as main system tracks well to our southeast through Minnesota/Wisconsin into Great Lakes and then Northern Ontario. Secondary system in northern stream passes through central MB with another band of snow north of us before it merges with storm over northern Ontario. We possibly get some flurries Thursday as gusty northerlies advect colder air into southern MB on backside of Ontario storm system, but that's about it. Bottom line.. snowlovers remain unhappy for a while longer...
Surprising, to me at least, Winnipeg's Dominant winter wind direction is South {every month except December from October to Mar incl}
Is that generally accurate or is it an affect of the airport location?
I remember hearing this was supposed to be a La NINA dominated fall into Winter. Heard someone say that this is more like a EL NINO weather pattern.....
People in the SNOW clearing industry must be Really wondering if they are gonna have any more work to do this year!!
La NINA or not, the positive AO index of the last few weeks (decades) may be helping. Dan GFK??
Links above and on my Name or Artic Oscillation AO and North Atlantic Oscillation NAO
or
http://www.appinsys.com/globalwarming/AO_NAO.htm
Hi Jim
Yes I read about November being one of the top 5 positive NAO (as measured). Certainly keeps the main cold air locked up a bit north and a more west to northwest flow over our area and yes what seems like a split El Nino pattern over North America with the main southern jet bringing very welcome precip to New Mexico and west Texas then northeast toward the lower lakes and New England (precip not so welcome up that way).
Wxrisk.com (DT) and others I have read keep saying pattern will begin to shift very rare for such a strong NAO in a La Nina....in fact very hard to find any analog years. So those that predict the long term and thinking it should change but in reality dont know when or in what way.
Thanks for the link Jim.. good summary of all the various factors that can affect the seasonal climate. As you can see, it's not as simple as just tying it to La Nina or El Nino. These are big players for sure, but their degree of influence can be enhanced or offset by these other climatic oscillations. This is why seasonal forecasting is so difficult.. we just don't know enough of the interplay of all these oscillations, let alone be able to accurately predict their strength or phase.
As for the predominant south wind in Winnipeg, that's mainly due to our location in the Red River valley. We get a lot of wind that is funneled up the valley, and south winds will be strengthened here (by 10-20 km/h) compared to areas outside the valley. The other common wind direction for us in the winter is NW which often occurs between departing lows and building high pressure ridges.
Check this link out!!!
What a year for some people....
http://www.noaa.gov/extreme2011/index.html
Great Link Dan P..close to $2 billion for the Souris (the Mouse that roared) Minot flood. Yet our province was criticized for the Hoop'nHoller cut because the effect on the Assinniboine didn't reach quite those levels here..
I suppose thats the difference between an EC Weather Watch and a Weather Warning it could happen vs its already happening and headed your way
Rob!
I sent you an amazing video on your facebook page. Not weather related but it is something that is well worth the watch.
One more comment if its permitted about record snowfalls. In 1955 the year as Rob says they first recorded Snow on Ground stats, was also the the record year for snowfall near 244mm. Despite setting a record for snowfall EC records show we never came close to 30cm in 1 or 2 days.(3 or 4 days perhaps).
IMFM fading memory, Dave M yours might be better. Very little wind accompanied the snow and life went on with out the major shut down that we would experience today..Many cars were stored for the winter and the major home delivery services, Milk, Bread Ice, Eaton's and newspapers maintained their horse drawn sleighs as backups and carried on easily. At the time the Winnipeg FreePress speculated most of December on whether we would exceed 100 inches of Snow before the 25th of December or the end of the year. I was one of many paperboys and girls who had jobs if they wanted spending money. Home delivery of the late afternoon papers in the fading light required us to pass through tunnels of snow on front sidewalks. Once the tunnel was built, little if any Snow shoveling was needed until the "roof" collapsed, Rumor had it occur often to those who didn't pay for the paper on time......
Lots of low cloud and misty conditions this morning across RRV and southern MB with freezing drizzle being reported in some areas like Kenora and Brandon.. might see some of it developing here as well.
Visibility has dropped in Winnipeg with freezing drizzle becoming more persistent out there. Not really a factor on main roads since temps are so mild, but with temps still below freezing, the drizzle may make for slippery conditions on untreated roads and walkways especially this evening and tonight into Thursday morning.
Looking forward to those northerly winds tomorrow flushing out all this low cloud.. would be nice to see the sun again.
Felt just like March out there today.. overcast, drizzly, last patches of snow before the arrival of warm spring weather in a couple of weeks. If only!
Actually I'm getting bored of this weather.. I would love a good old fashioned snowstorm one of these days. Kids are complaining that it just doesn't feel like Christmas this year without the snow! Gotta agree with them..
Very icy out there this evening.. driveway and steps very slippery. Had to sprinkle some of the rock salt out there to prevent any slip and fall accidents. Careful if you're out and about this evening.
That Bishop Grandin webcam looking pretty iced up this evening! (neat effect with the lights shining through the frosted lens..)
Thanks for the update Rob!
I was outside for part of the day and saw all the shopping malls parking lots with a glaze of ice!!
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