The storm system that will be affecting southern Manitoba this weekend is expected to track across the western RRV Saturday night pushing through the Interlake towards the Ontario border Sunday. The bulk of precipitation with this system is expected to fall north and west of the low track, with most of the precipitation falling as snow towards the SK border. Snow is expected to develop over eastern SK late Saturday then spread northeastward towards the MB border Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow will then continue over the northern Interlake pushing across the north basin of Lake Winnipeg during the day. At this point, it looks like a general 10-15 cm of snow is possible along the SK/MB border especially from Roblin up through the Swan River area towards The Pas. (see graphic from NOAA HPC showing probability of 10 cm or more snowfall) Similar amounts of snow are expected over neighbouring eastern SK. Further south, some light rain is expected to fall over the RRV Saturday night into Sunday, possibly mixing with a few wet snowflurries by Sunday afternoon as colder air wraps in behind the system. Overall though, the bulk of wintery weather with this system is expected to fall well north and west of Winnipeg. People planning on travelling through the Swan River/Roblin/Yorkton/Kamsack areas late Saturday into Sunday should be prepared for winterlike driving conditions.
UPDATE.. 8 am Nov 6. Here's a webcam image from Assessippi ski resort this morning along the MB/SK border near Roblin. At least 10 cm of snow was reported in the area overnight with another 5 cm or more expected today before things taper off. Road conditions in western MB and southern SK are listed as snowcovered and slippery this morning with travel not advised on some highways.Some snowfall observations from southern MB and SK last night into today..
Mafeking, MB ......... 27 cm (between Swan River and The Pas) (5 pm)
Pelly SK ................... 24 cm (west of Swan River near Kamsack) (5 pm)
Grand Rapids MB ... 14 cm (6 pm)
Yorkton SK .............. 10 cm (8 am)
Roblin MB................. 10 cm (8 am)
Rossburn MB ........... 9 cm (8 am)
Regina SK.................. 6-10 cm (8 am)
Saltcoats SK ................ 8 cm (SE of Yorkton) (8 am)
Gilbert Plains MB .... 5 cm (west of Dauphin) (8 am)
The Windfinder (European based) Super forecast for Sunday has greater rain and snow for Winnipeg (up to 5 mm rain and 15mm snow) Sunday . What really caught my eye is Air pressure bottoming at 959 hPa in Winnipeg Sunday afternoon. and 937hPa in Brandon in the morning?
ReplyDeletemy name or
http://www.windfinder.com/weatherforecast/brandon_airport#
Jim.. That's probably a raw station pressure value that is not adjusted to mean sea level (MSL) Pressure readings are usually adjusted to MSL and read higher than the raw station pressure.
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada is calling for a rain changing to light snow tomorrow night, here in the PEG. I picked some "wet snowflurries" on the poll, so here's hoping we get a few flakes.
ReplyDeleteI think the worst of the snowfall will hit the dauphin and swan river areas where they could receive up to 25cm of the white stuff. So EC issued a snowfall warning for the west central section of the province, If you want the snow here in the city you'll have to wait for tomorrow evening to come or just take a drive up to dauphin. Thats what I'd do.
ReplyDeleteSnow over eastern MT spreading into southern SK south of Moose Jaw/Regina area this evening.. will continue to spread northeastward tonight towards Swan River/The Pas area overnight. A snowy night over much of eastern SK tonight. Most precip with this system falling in the colder air as snow.. very little in way of liquid pcpn in warmer air, at least now.
ReplyDeleteWith that high moving in, it got pretty cold in Alberta this morning. Sundre got down to -20 C. Hello Winter!
ReplyDeleteEnvironment Canada is calling for snow and 1 C for Winnipeg on Monday. Might get a dusting of snow on grassy surfaces.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the air is just gonna get cold enough for a light dusting of snow tonight here in Winnipeg .The winds are also gonna have a bit of a bite to them later.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely white at Assessippi this morning.. click on my name for webcam image. I see the snowfall warning has now been updated to include the Dauphin-Roblin region after 10 cm of snow in Roblin overnight.
ReplyDeleteI was sure yesterday evening the forecast was saying no rain till late this afternoon for Winnipeg. Has the system tracked differently then planned and does that mean it will move off earlier?
ReplyDeleteDaryl.. Yes, the forecast yesterday for Winnipeg had a 30% chance of rain late today with some rain this evening changing to light snow. Looks like there was some light bands of rain that developed overnight into this morning which are now pushing through to the north. So the forecast timing of rain wasn't the best, even though the system was tracking pretty much as forecast, both timing and location. Models pegged the area of snow pretty well as of Friday.
ReplyDeleteFor the rest of the day, looks like we'll just be cloudy with some patchy drizzle or light showers possible, especially to our north, with a few flurries possible by tonight. Temperatures are dropping this afternoon as we get into those gusty southwesterlies, tapping some of that colder air over southwest MB. We were 9C this morning, now down to +6.. dropping to +2 or 3C by late afternoon or evening.
Hi Rob
ReplyDeleteIf you dont mind I have a question regarding sunshine minutes/hours. A question came up about this. In the past, there were instruments that measured sunshine minutes at specific locations. Are there any left in your area (i.e. winnipeg). We had one at NWS GF but that was removed a few years ago.
Just had a question posed to me about historical sunshine records.
Dan
Looking at the Webcams in Saskatchwan....winter has indeed arrived there. Winnipeg winds sure have picked up this afternoon with temperatures dropping good now.
ReplyDeleteSnowing in Brandon as of 3:38
ReplyDeleteVisibility is down to 3 km!!
HI Dan..
ReplyDeleteNo, Winnipeg no longer takes sunshine readings. We had a great sunshine record from around 1910 to around 1990, before it was decommissioned. I'm not sure if there are some private research stations around here that still take solar readings for agriculture purposes.
What I find odd is that the UV index is now part of the daily forecast from March through October, yet we have no solar monitoring equipment to give us an idea what the UV index or solar radiation level actually is.
Looking at the radar, precipitation is starting to fill back in nicely as the low pressure system pulls off to the east. Accumulating snow seems likely as close to us, as areas just north and west of Portage La Prairie.
ReplyDeleteBased on what is happening out west and the rate at which the temperature is dropping, one would expect a changeover to snow around 10:00 tonight here in Winnipeg.
ReplyDeleteWet snowflurries starting to mix in with the rain this evening here in Winnipeg.. a cold blustery night.
ReplyDeleteLooks like we'll have some wet snow through this evening into the overnight hours. Still not sure if we'll see any accumulations here in Winnipeg, but for now we'll go with "Trace - some wet snowflurries" as the correct poll answer.
Updated snowfall amounts as of this evening include..
Mafeking ....... 27 cm
Pelly SK ....... 24 cm
Grand Rapids ... 14 cm
The Pas ......... 6 cm
Not used to seeing the the temperature plummet on a SW wind.
ReplyDeleteDown to 0.5 C at the airport with the first offical snowflakes there!!! I'm like Dan GF...jumping for joy at the first flakes of the season. I get the impression Rob is NOT doing the same.
I really have to give credit to Environment Canada. Back on Thursday in the Special weather statement, they said that rain will change to snow in Winnipeg on Sunday evening. Lo and behold. Good timing.
ReplyDeleteCould be a very slippery commute Monday morning.. lots of moisture out there this evening will freeze overnight as temperatures fall below freezing on a gusty wind. Watch out for icy conditions on untreated roads, especially bridges and overpasses overnight into early Monday morning.
ReplyDeleteSnow is starting to coat the grassy surfaces and car rooftops, even though the temp is still just a tad above zero. By morning we could very well have 1 -2 cm of slushy coating.
ReplyDeleteThanks Rob for the sunshine info.
ReplyDeleteEnjoy your coating of snow. None here in the forks from this system.
What's this????
ReplyDelete1-2 cm of slushy snow accumulation on the ground here in Winnipeg. SUPRISE!!!
3.4 cm here in Charleswood this morning. Depths varied between 1 cm and 5 cm depending on the underlying surface (snow melted initially on warm ground surfaces) but measuring on a table with no melting effects from the ground gave me just over 3 cm. Welcome to winter!
ReplyDeleteSo I'll officially award the correct poll answer to "first general snowfall of the season 2-5 cm. Kudos to the 3 people who picked that! Honourable mention to the 1-2 cm group since that's how much fell by midnight last night.