Sunday, November 20, 2011
Nice warmup on the way this week
If the cold weather this weekend was a little too early for your liking, take heart.. warmer weather is on the way across the Prairies this week. A surge of mild Pacific air will push into Alberta Monday and then spread into southern SK and southern MB Tuesday into Wednesday, pushing temperatures above the freezing mark once again. The mild weather is forecast to continue through the end of the week before a brief cooldown on the weekend.
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Wednesday and thursday's forecasted highs could be approaching record highs. I think mother nature is a little confused right now!!
ReplyDeleteAre the forecasted highs on ec's forecast a little too optimistic, considering we now have a snowpack? Or am I just too pesimistic..
ReplyDeleteI think +4 or +5C is doable for Winnipeg by Wednesday or Thursday, even with snowcover.. especially if we can tap a westerly wind which helps milder air from the west to surface more readily here than a southerly wind which tends to trap colder air in the snow covered valley. If we stay with a southerly wind, temps might be held back a couple degrees in the RRV.
ReplyDeleteThe +3C for Tuesday for Winnipeg however looks optimistic given that it'll take a day or so to flush out the cold air. I'm thinking more like 0C or -2C.
Thank you Rob, looking forward to it
ReplyDeleteI hope it''l do this all winter cause I hate the cold. Keep the warm weather coming rob!
ReplyDeleteWHOA!!!
ReplyDelete6 C on Wednesday!!! That is near a record high!
Went from the deep freezer to the fryer.....
Got up to a nice 0C in Grand Forks today.. but only -5C in Emerson and -9C in Winnipeg with the increasing snowpack as you head north. Except for the northern third, much of ND is snowfree which will help them benefit the most from the warmup this week. NAM showing 925-950 mb temps of 5-10C over southern MB and ND for Wed and Thu which would translate to highs of 10-13C over snowfree ground. That's likely on the high side over southern MB, but I bet Emerson could see 10C by Wednesday or Thursday.
ReplyDeleteI was just going to comment that south of US highway 2 there is hardly any snow cover but you beat me to it. Even locally that fluffy snow has compressed down to barely 3 cm in most places.
ReplyDeleteThe intensive tillage and burning of stubble and left over crops produce a landscape where even 2-3 cm of snow cover can transform the prairies into a tundra wasteland. Combined with poor cold air drainage, the result seems to be those often outlandish overnite lows and minimal daytime recovery at the larger airports on the prairies.
925 hPa flow becomes SW and varies from 10-30 kts the next several days.. but models show generally lighter southerly flow at the surface. May be difficult to break out of inversion and SSE valley flow until late Thursday locally, and I'm sure we will see large variations in temp with downslope areas in the western RRV seeing more of that warmer SW flow mixing down.
Daniel....
ReplyDeleteTalking about that surface south-southeast wind....got a surge of low clouds that came from Western Wisconsin into east central Minnesota early Monday morning...it has not made it into the Red River valley as of 3 am and expanding into southeast Manitoba at 5 am. Dew points climbing as well with temps rising to nr 0c this early morning in cloud area. Tough call on clearing....if when....
No low clouds here....
ReplyDeleteNothing but sun and warm temps.
I really doubted that we would hit 6 or 7 this week, but looks like we might do it.
The stratus shield reached the east perimeter early this morning before that switch to the SSW flow.. plenty of broken stratus and fog/haze this morning here.
ReplyDeleteStratus breaking up and shifting into Minnesota.. but at the same time winds are becoming light and still only SSW. We'll have to see if it is enough to get us much above freezing today..
Break out the sunscreen Tomorrow and Thursday. Record highs could be possible on Thursday!!!
ReplyDeleteThe record for Thursday is 7.2 C
ReplyDeleteI would like to see some records broken.....HERE WE GO!!!!
9 C already in Grand Forks at 10:53 in the morning. Unbelievable!!!
ReplyDeleteAlso was there something wrong with the reading with Portage La Prairie temperature sensor overnight??? A low of 5 all night???
That temperature at Portage was legit. A downslope SW wind kept their temperature up all night. impressive.
ReplyDeleteWinnipeg's record high for today is 8.9C, which we likely won't break. But that record high of 7.2C for tomorrow definitely looks breakable.. it's a rather low record high for November.
Double digit temps over the snowfree southern RRV this afternoon, with temps of 11C over Morden, Winkler, Gretna and Emerson areas (record high at Gretna) Even milder south of the border with GFK at an impressive 13C. Satellite imagery showing snowpack thinning out rapidly over the RRV, especially south and southwest of Winnipeg. Should make for another nice one tomorrow with similar temps as today.. possibly 13C over southern RRV.
ReplyDelete