Scattered showers and thundershowers are expected to develop today across southern Manitoba as an unstable airmass settles over the area. Partly sunny skies this morning will give way to convective cloud development as temperatures climb into the mid teens by the noon hour, setting the stage for scattered showers and thundershowers this afternoon. Any thundershowers will be fairly weak due to a lack of strong dynamics today, however small hail and brief downpours are possible. Conditions are even favourable for some cold core funnel clouds to develop today (with or without a thundershower) however these will be isolated and should not have enough energy to reach the ground. Things will dissipate this evening as we lose daytime heating, leading to drier weather Sunday with no precipitation expected.. welcome news for the large outdoor events planned tomorrow (including U2 concert and Teddy Bear picnic)
The dry weather will be short lived however as a stronger storm system develops over the Northern high plains and into southern Manitoba by Monday. This will bring a more general rainfall across southern MB Monday into Tuesday, with 10-20 mm possible for Winnipeg and the RRV, and heavier amounts for 20-40 mm likely across southwest MB into the interlake areas. This, in combination with gusty north winds will bring additional high water and flooding concerns to the Lake Manitoba area, and will be yet another setback for area farmers who desperately need a prolonged stretch of dry and warm weather to accelerate seeding operations. Long range guidance is hinting at warmer weather moving in by the end of next week, that hopefully signals the start of a trend to more summerlike weather finally moving into southern MB.